The New York Times - USA (2020-10-17)

A4 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2020

Tracking an Outbreak

Y

The pandemic grinds on at its own speed. It will not be rushed by
dates on the calendar. That became clear on Friday with an an-
nouncement from a drug company that ruled out President
Trump’s claim that a coronavirus vaccine could be ready before
Election Day.
The announcement, from the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer,
confirmed what many epidemiologists had already inferred — that
the company would not be ready to seek authorization for its co-
ronavirus vaccine before at least the second half of next month.
The announcement signaled a shift for the company and for Dr.
Albert Bourla, its chief executive. He had repeatedly promised
rapid results as the race for a vaccine headed into late-stage trials.
“Our model — our best case — predicts that we will have an an-
swer by the end of October,” he told a television interviewer last
month. Dr. Bourla’s statements drew an attaboy from a president
who clearly craved vaccine approval before Election Day: Mr.
Trump called him a “great guy.” (Dr. Bourla later tweeted that
“Pfizer has never discussed” the Food and Drug Administration’s
vaccine requirements with the White House. And, in an open letter
on Oct. 1, he said that “we are moving at the speed of science” —
echoing a joint pledge by nine vaccine companies that they would
not deliver vaccines until and unless they had been fully vetted.)
Friday also brought debate about the antiviral drug remdesivir,
one of the drugs the president was given during his stay in the
hospital with the coronavirus. A study of more than 11,000 people
sponsored by the World Health Organization found that remdesivir
had failed to prevent deaths among coronavirus patients. But the
findings have not been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific
journal. Gilead, which makes remdesivir, took issue with the
W.H.O.’s findings, calling them “inconsistent” with other trials and
asserting that the organization’s data had not undergone rigorous
review.
Remdesivir was granted emergency authorization for Covid-
in May after a smaller National Institutes of Health trial indicated
that it had sped the recovery of severely ill patients. But Dr. Antho-
ny S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and the
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Dis-
eases, was quoted after that study was released as saying it was
not a “knockout drug that will change the trajectory of the corona-
virus pandemic.”
Politics and the pandemic have become entangled as Election
Day approaches, however, and an open letter condemned the
Trump administration’s politicization of another critical agency, the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The letter has been signed by more than 1,000 current and
former C.D.C. intelligence officers — experts who spent their ca-
reers researching outbreaks and tracking diseases. They said the
C.D.C. should be returned to its “indispensable role” in fighting the
coronavirus pandemic.
The letter, first posted on Medium in May, recently passed the
1,000-signature mark and was republished on Friday by The Epide-
miology Monitor, a trade publication that devoted its entire October
edition to calling for a restoration of the C.D.C.’s reputation.

The Rampage in Rural America

The coronavirus hit the Northeast in the spring. Now it is rav-
aging rural America, wreaking havoc in small towns that lack
critical resources like physicians who live nearby. In Great Falls,
Mont., the hospital’s 27-bed Covid-19 unit is full. The county health
department is racing to hire new contact tracers. And Paul Krogue,
a nurse practitioner who also teaches at Montana State Universi-
ty’s Great Falls campus, has seen attendance in his classes dwindle
as students become sick or go into quarantines.
In July, Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana ordered masks worn
inside businesses and indoor public spaces. Mr. Krogue said some
people in Great Falls were nonchalant at first, as almost no one in
Cascade County knew anyone who had been infected. “We bene-
fited from that early on,” he said. “But in some ways, I think it did
us a disservice, too, because it also created a certain level of com-
placency.”
Elsewhere in rural America, the numbers are small, but the
impact is big. North Dakota has had 4,270 new cases in the last
seven days, less than a fifth of the number reported in Wisconsin.
But North Dakota’s smaller population means that it had 560 cases
for every 100,000 residents, the most in the nation. South Dakota
has posted 4,571 new cases in the last week, or one for every 517
residents. The comparable figure for Wisconsin was 376.
Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota warned this week of “addi-
tional adversity and perhaps deadlier outcomes.”

In Scotland, Marrying Without a Mask

Couples in Scotland no longer have to say “I do” from behind
masks. Masks remain mandatory in places of worship and hotels,
as well as in other indoor public spaces and on public transporta-
tion. But Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, announced an
exception for bridal couples, saying she wanted to “deliver some
flexibility.” Officiants were already exempt. Ms. Sturgeon said the
exception for couples who marry or entered into a civil union
would apply only during the ceremony and only if the couple
stayed at least six and a half feet from everyone else.
Ms. Sturgeon also tightened the rules for Scottish workplaces,
making masks mandatory in cafeterias, except for when someone
is seated at a table. And, starting Monday, face coverings will be
required in common areas in offices.

By JAMES BARRON

Coronavirus Update

Coronavirus Update wraps up the day’s developments with infor-

mation from across the virus report.

Pfizer Says No Vaccine by Election Day

Draft Study Casts Doubt on Remdesivir

Outbreaks Straining Small Communities

New Coronavirus Cases Announced Daily in U.S.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

March 1 Oct. 16
Note: Friday’s total is incomplete because some states report cases after
press time. Data is as of Oct. 16, 2020, at 5 p.m. Eastern.
Sources: State and local health agencies; hospitals; C.D.C.

As of Friday evening, more than 8,075,700 people across every state,
plus Washington, D.C., and four U.S. territories, have tested positive
for the virus, according to a New York Times database.

New cases

7-day average

60,

30,

Many cases from

unspecified days

Hot Spots in the United States

Sources: State and local health agencies. The map showsthe shareof population with a new reportedcase over the last week.Partsof a county with a

population density lower than 10 people per square mile are not shaded. Data for Rhode Island is shown at the state level because county level data is

infrequently reported. Data is as of Oct. 16, 2020, at 5 p.m. Eastern. THE NEW YORK TIMES

As of Friday evening, more than 8,075, 700 people across every state, plus Washington,D.C.,and four U.S. territories,have tested positive for the

coronavirus, according to a New York Times database. More than 2 18,20 0 people with the virus have died in the United States.

Average daily cases per 100,000 people

in the past week

16 Few or

no cases

32 48

Nev.

Ga.

Miss.

Conn.

N.C.

Iowa

N.D.

Kan.

Texas

R.I.

Mass.

Ark.

Utah

Mont.

S.C.

Mich.

Calif.

Wis.

N.M.

Ill.

Fla.

Wyo.

N.Y.

Ind.

Minn.

Ore.

Maine

Alaska

Tenn.

Pa.

Md.

Ariz.

Wash.

N.H.

Hawaii

Mo.

Del.

W.Va.

N.J.

Idaho

D.C.

Ohio

Ky.

Okla.

La.

Ala.

Vt.

Neb.

S.D.

Minn.

Colo. Va.

Puerto Rico

A legislator in New Hampshire

called it constricting. A Michigan

man said it messed up his look. A

sailor in Massachusetts argued

the government has no right to

force him to wear it.

Though they might sound famil-

iar, those were not the refrains of

people rebelling against face

masks during the pandemic. In-

stead, they came from the seatbelt

debates of the 1980s, another era

when some Americans pushed

back against rules meant to keep

them safe.

Capitals, legislative halls, peti-

tions and radio shows were the

stages for battle over state seat-

belt laws, the first of which passed

in 1984. Medical workers and po-

lice officers gave firsthand ac-

counts of how people not wearing

belts died in wrecks. Opponents

wondered if it was safe to be

strapped into a hurtling vehicle, or

complained about discomfort and

government overreach.

In Massachusetts, a talk radio

host and a sign painter teamed up

to repeal their state’s seatbelt law.

A state legislator in Michigan was

called hateful names. And for dec-

ades, bills have floundered in New

Hampshire, which has so far lived

up to its “Live Free or Die” motto

in remaining the only state that

does not force an adult driver to

wear a seatbelt.

The fight over seatbelt laws in

the United States was fraught

with trying to strike a balance be-

tween individual and public inter-

ests. Those concerns have also

been reflected in similar matters

of health and safety, including vac-

cinations, helmet laws — and

masks.

Alberto Giubilini, a public

health ethics scholar who has

compared the arguments over

seatbelt laws with those of vacci-

nation opponents, noted that seat-

belts and helmets are mostly

meant to protect an individual,

while vaccinations and face

masks are also intended to pre-

vent harm from spreading to oth-

ers.

That gives seatbelt opponents

more room to argue for their per-

sonal right to imperil themselves,

he said. “Many are worried about

the state becoming more authori-

tarian,” he said. “It is refusal to fol-

low certain authority, just because

it is authority.”

Since 1984, when New York be-

came the first state to have a seat-

belt law, they have continued to be

an uneven patchwork. Some have

made it a primary violation,

meaning officers can pull over a

driver only for not wearing a seat-

belt. Others made it secondary,

meaning a driver stopped for an-

other reason can also be given a

seatbelt citation. Only 31 states

extend the requirement to adults

in the back seat.

Legislative records, govern-

ment reports and interviews show

how the efforts to draft seatbelt

laws have pitted grim fatality sta-

tistics against personal com-

plaints about comfort, freedom

and efficiency.

Here are three snapshots of

those efforts and their outcomes.

Massachusetts

In Massachusetts, the fight over

seatbelt laws was spearheaded by

a sign painter and a radio host.

Robert Ford, who goes by Chip,

is a 70-year-old libertarian who

wears a seatbelt — but he doesn’t

want the government to force him

to.

In the mid-1980s, he teamed up

with Jerry Williams, a pioneering

talk radio host who was once

called “the dean of ‘radio activ-

ists,’ ” on a crusade to repeal the

state’s seatbelt laws.

Their partnership began in

1985, the year of the state’s first

seatbelt law. Mr. Ford had

dropped out of college, sailed and

restored boats, and turned to sign

painting. One day, he was working

in Beverly Harbor when he turned

on WRKO.

“I used to listen to talk radio

when I was out lettering boats,” he

said. “I heard Jerry Williams talk-

ing about the seatbelt law.”

Inspired, Mr. Ford contacted

Mr. Williams, who encouraged

him to get involved in efforts to re-

peal the legislation.

“I had never done anything po-

litical before,” Mr. Ford said. “I

had no idea what a ballot commit-

tee was.”

Alan S. Tolz, a former producer

of Mr. Williams’s show, said the

host devoted most of his air time

in that period to encouraging peo-

ple to petition against seatbelts.

“It was a long civics lesson,” he

said. “I think he was looking at

this as a libertarian issue — ‘I am

an adult, I will wear a seatbelt, and

you don’t have to force me to.’ ”

“And that is how we won,” Mr.

Ford said. “I used that argument

in every debate, every talk show.”

The law was repealed in 1986,

making Massachusetts the first

state to do so.

Mr. Williams, who died in 2003,

credited what he called the “rag-

tag band of citizens who under-

stood what the American Revolu-

tion was all about” for the win.

A second law passed in 1993,

and Mr. Ford, who went on to tes-

tify against seatbelt laws in other

capitals, gave up on fighting the

Massachusetts law when his ef-

fort to repeal the new law failed.

“I washed my hands of that is-

sue and moved on to others,” he

said.

But not government-mandated

masks. Mr. Ford says he does not

see a libertarian parallel with to-

day’s mask mandates, because

their purpose is to prevent harm

from spreading to others.

“You choose to wear a seatbelt,

and you are only hurting yourself

if you make the wrong decision,”

he said.

Michigan

More than 30 years ago, David

Hollister, a legislator representing

Lansing, was working on budget

and social services issues when

Richard H. Austin, the secretary

of state and chairman of the Mich-

igan Safety Council, asked him to

work on the state’s first seatbelt

legislation.

Armed with research on how

seatbelts could save lives and a

survey that showed 65 percent op-

posed mandatory use, he pro-

posed his first bill in 1982. It did

not pass.

So he and other safety advo-

cates got creative. Mr. Hollister

put legislators in speeding cars at

a General Motors testing facility.

He erected a slide at the Capitol

for people to experience a landing

at five miles per hour.

In another stunt, or what Mr.

Hollister refers to as a series of

“eye-openers,” he and supporters

demonstrated impact by dropping

pumpkins on the Capitol grounds,

where they exploded. “It was the

force of a head hitting the wind-

shield at five miles per hour,” he

said. “People were sitting around

eating sandwiches at lunch hour.”

Gradually, opposition yielded.

Michigan’s first seatbelt law took

effect in 1985. “The thing that re-

ally did it was we started arguing

that the opponents were arguing

for the right to go through the

windshield,” Mr. Hollister said.

“That is where it was similar to

the mask,” he said. “It is going to

save lives and reduce costs. Peo-

ple eventually are going to come

around.”

New Hampshire

New Hampshire is the only state

that still does not have a manda-

tory seatbelt law.

In 2018, according to the Na-

tional Highway Traffic Safety Ad-

ministration, seatbelts saved

about 14,955 lives of people ages 5

and older nationwide. If everyone

involved in crashes had worn

seatbelts, an additional 2,549 peo-

ple could have been saved, it said.

But just as wearing a mask can-

not guarantee protection from in-

fection, wearing a seatbelt has not

prevented deaths in some

crashes. Belted passengers have

died in rollovers, been partly

ejected and crushed. Some died

trapped in cars in water or fire.

In 2018, opponents of seatbelt

laws in New Hampshire seized on

those examples in defeating a bill

that would have made them man-

datory, saying education and ad-

vertising would be better than a

law.

Testimony from citizens and

lawmakers mirrored debates over

mask mandates: The “govern-

ment should not protect me from

myself,” one said. Another called

them an “example of a nanny

state.”

Advocates spoke of soaring

medical costs or safety for the

greater good.

The bill lost, 10 votes to 9.

In 2020, another seatbelt bill

died, not because of votes, but for

another reason: The pandemic

shut down legislative sessions.

Citizens Count, a nonprofit organi-

zation connecting people with

elected officials, asked Facebook

followers how they felt about this

year’s attempt. Most made sneer-

ing criticisms of government in-

fantilization, or quoted the state

motto “Live Free or Die.”

“Can we finish the debate on

masks first, please?” wrote one of

the more than 300 people who re-

plied.

PUBLIC SAFETY

Face Mask Debate Recalls Seatbelt Wars of 1980s

By CHRISTINE HAUSER

After the first state seatbelt law passed in 1984, opponents called

it government overreach that violated their personal freedom.

SMITH COLLECTION/GADO, VIA GETTY IMAGES