Barron's - USA (2020-10-19)

M34 BARRON’S October 19, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedOct14:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,471,074 + 29,970 +2,878,074

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2,619 -270 + 2,617

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 26 -7 -37

Float -246 -27 -129

OtherF.R.Assets 37,962 + 3,338 + 10,954

TotalFedCredit# 7,045,371 + 25,643 +3,135,700

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,439 + 14 + 432

Total 7,133,672 + 25,699 +3,137,152

Currencyincirc 2,041,092 + 6,178 + 270,331

Treas.CashHldgs 27 + 2 -171

Treas.FedDeposits 1,680,998 -16,076 +1,356,394

ForeignFedDeposits 18,902 + 10 + 13,716

OtherFedDeposits 174,277 + 20,293 + 103,957

OtherFRliab/cap 52,308 + 3,305 + 6,827

Totalfactors 4,271,743 + 4,630 +1,755,590

ReservesF.R.banks 2,861,929 + 21,069 +1,381,561

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,410,500 +^52 -1,415

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded September: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,852,800 2,799,700 1.90 1,504,800

Nonborrowed Res 2,774,400 2,716,600 2.13 1,504,700

Borrowed Reserves 78,387 83,126 -5.70 102

MonetaryBase 4,880,400 4,807,400 1.52 3,202,700

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 10/16 10/9 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1905.05 1923.25 1490.00

Silver,troyounce 24.26 24.66 17.56

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1978.50 76.10 4.00

MapleLeaf 1997.52 95.12 5.00

MexicanPeso 2301.72 8.00 0.35

AustriaCrown 1867.73 3.00 0.16

AustriaPhil 1997.52 95.12 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1997.52 95.12 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1902.40

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 10/15 10/8 Ago Chg.

923.32391.56 Gold mining 872.07 839.66507.22 +3.86

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 65% 61% 58%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 34.8% 34.7% 26.2%

Bearish 35.7 39.0 43.1

Neutral 29.5 26.3 30.7

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 50% 46% 46%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 42.7% 49.9% 48.1%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 9,031 r30,717 10,731

Municipal (z) 8,415 r15,209 11,140

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.52 1.61 2.82

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.07 3.08 3.51

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

49.4 52.1 80.3

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4812.00 4769.58 4084.96

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3309.66 3294.65 3049.22

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

333.00 331.47 301.01

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.35 2.35 2.70

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.62 3.62 3.60

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.54 +.45 –.52

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.18 2.20 2.92

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedOctober5

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,518.2r5,511.23,886.5 41.98

M1(notadjusted) 5,535.7r5,702.93,810.8 45.26

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,699.3r18,652.115,145.6 23.46

M2(notadjusted) 18,724.8r18,573.315,145.5 23.63

MonthendedSeptember

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.115 1.126 1.218 -8.46

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedSeptember

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,512.1 5,395.0 3,903.3 41.22

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,658.118,411.915,029.2 24.15

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

N D J F M A M J J A SO

Barron's Gold Mining Index (872.07)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Wan Week:Gold fell Friday, ensuring

the metal’s first weekly decline in three

weeks. One culprit: a stronger dollar.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16

NYSE 1.04 1.45 .71 .77 .47

NYSEAmerican .92 .23 .71 1.13 1.84

Nasdaq .71 .78 .52 1.18 1.14

SouthKorea(Won) .0008755 .0008744 1142.21 1143.63

SriLanka(Rupee) .0054 .0054 184.2500 184.2200

Sweden(Krona) .1130 .1139 8.8488 8.7799

Switzerland(Franc) 1.0929 1.0995 .9150 .9095

Taiwan(Dollar) .03475 .03494 28.780 28.617

Thailand(Baht) .03207 .03227 31.180 30.990

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1260 .1272 7.9381 7.8597

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0351 .0353 28.4500 28.3500

U.K.(Pound) 1.2916 1.3047 .7742 .7665

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02332 .02349 42.890 42.575

----

Euro 1.1717 1.1832 .8534 .8452

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.50

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.00

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 1.84

Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.09 1.82

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.106 0.096 1.674

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.105 0.095 1.640

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.117 0.112 1.661

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.115 0.110 1.620
Avg weekly auction-c 0.10 0.10 1.66

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.75

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 2.15

2 months 0.15 0.15 2.15

3 months 0.18 0.18 2.15

6 months 0.20 0.20 2.05

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.563 -0.565 -0.499

3 months -0.540 -0.523 -0.435

6 months -0.515 -0.498 -0.411

12 months -0.463 -0.443 -0.316

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.15 0.15 1.85

3 months 0.22 0.22 1.95

6 months 0.26 0.25 1.95

12 months 0.34 0.35 1.99

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.90 1.97 3.33

Bank money market-z 0.10 0.10 0.22

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.07

6-Month Certif-z 0.18 0.18 0.56

12-Month Certif-z 0.26 0.27 0.80
30 Month Accounts-z 0.25 0.26 0.85

5-Year Certificates-z 0.43 0.43 1.15

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

ON D J F M A M J J A S O

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100s

CBOEs

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,October16,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0129 .0130 77.4675 77.1503

Australia(Dollar) .7078 .7244 1.4128 1.3805

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6520 2.6519 .3771 .3771

Brazil(Real) .1771 .1808 5.6465 5.5322

Bulgaria(Lev) .5993 .6044 1.6686 1.6546

Canada(Dollar) .7580 .7623 1.3192 1.3118

Chile(Peso) .001260 .001258 793.50 794.70

China(Renminbi) .1493 .1494 6.6976 6.6947

Colombia(Peso) .0002599 .0002612 3848.10 3828.00

Croatia(Kuna) .1545404 .1562842 6.47 6.40

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04295 .04379 23.281 22.834

Denmark(Krone) .1574 .1590 6.3520 6.2902

EcuadorUS Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0637 .0637 15.6984 15.7039

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7502 7.7501

Hungary(Forint) .003214 .003321 311.15 301.09

Iceland(Krona) .007179 .007253 139.30 137.87

India(Rupee) .01362 .01370 73.444 73.000

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000680 .0000680 14700 14700

Israel(Shekel) .2961 .2960 3.3770 3.3779

Japan(Yen) .009487 .009468 105.40 105.62

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002329 .002340 429.38 427.34

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2685 3.2666 .3060 .3061

Macau(Pataca) .1252 .1254 7.9880 7.9770

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2411 .2416 4.1485 4.1388

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0473 .0473 21.1431 21.1318

NewZealand(Dollar) .6604 .6670 1.5142 1.4993

Norway(Krone) .1066 .1095 9.3799 9.1325

Oman(Rial) 2.5974 2.5976 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00615 .00611 162.617 163.767

Philippines(Peso) .02056 .02068 48.646 48.361

Poland(Zloty) .2577 .2646 3.8805 3.7787

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6413 3.6413

Russia(Ruble)-a .01285 .01303 77.803 76.766

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7510 3.7511

Singapore(Dollar) .7362 .7392 1.3583 1.3529

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0604 .0607 16.5606 16.4664

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.