The New York Times - USA (2020-10-25)

Cam Newton will

have a chance on

Sunday to even the

Patriots’ record.

WINSLOW TOWNSON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The N.F.L. somehow got through a rash

of facility closings last week without

having to delay any games, which was

a hopeful sign that the league had

found a way to chug along despite the

continuing concerns about the corona-

virus.

This week, the league may not be as

lucky. With the Las Vegas Raiders

having at least one player test positive,

the rest of the team is being tested

more thoroughly. Through an “abun-

dance of caution” — the N.F.L.’s new

catchphrase — the Sunday night game

between the Raiders and Tampa Bay

was moved to the afternoon and re-

placed in prime time with the matchup

between Seattle and Arizona.

Having a game be postponed out of

this week would be one thing. Not

having a game to show in prime time is,

apparently, not on the table.

But provided the schedule stays

reasonably stable, here is a look at

N.F.L. Week 7, with all picks made

against the spread.

Last week’s record: 4-10

Overall record: 47-43-1

Seahawks at Cardinals

8:20 p.m., NBC

Line: Seahawks -3.5 | Total: 56.5

For as dominant as the Seahawks’ (5-0)

offense has been this season, Seattle is

not exactly running away with games.

The team’s average

margin of victory is 6.8

points and all of their

opponents have scored at

least 23 points. Currently

the 3-3 Miami Dolphins

(+47) have a better point

differential than the 5-0

Seahawks (+34). The

same is true for eight

other teams, many of

which have two losses.

Having your defense

allow games to be that

close is a terrible idea

against Kyler Murray

and the Cardinals (4-2),

who are never more than

a single pass or a run

away from scoring. Mur-

ray is starting to live up

to his hype, rushing for

six touchdowns and

leading the N.F.L. with

7.3 yards per carry while

improving his passing

statistics across the

board from last season.

Proving how explosive

he can be, Murray beat

the Cowboys last week

with a truly odd perform-

ance in which he com-

pleted just nine of his 24

attempts, but still man-

aged 188 yards passing

and two touchdowns.

Both teams can clearly

score. Arizona, surprisingly enough,

has shown much more ability to defend.

So playing at home, it seems odd that

the Cardinals are an underdog.

PICK: CARDINALS +3.5

Steelers at Titans 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Steelers -2 | Total: 52.5

It might be hard to pinpoint what year

this game is being played. The Steelers

(5-0) and their throwback uniforms,

their throwback quarterback, their

throwback defense and their throwback

roster construction will take their tried-

and-true approach to Tennessee to face

the Titans (5-0), a team powered by an

in-your-face running game centered on

a single bell cow back.

If you squint just enough you might

think you’re watching Earl Campbell

and the Oilers take on Terry Bradshaw

and the Steelers.

Campbell’s teams — mostly in Hous-

ton and once with New Orleans — went

5-7 in the regular season against the

Steel Curtain Steelers, and he broke 100

yards rushing against them just once.

Derrick Henry, for all of his power and

size, may not fare much better. Pitts-

burgh, which boasts the most efficient

run defense in the N.F.L., has not al-

lowed an opposing running back to top

100 yards rushing in a game this sea-

son, and has allowed such a game just

three times total over the last three

years.

Never rule out a big performance

from Henry, who is known for pushing

his way through hard contact with ease.

But Pittsburgh is a far more

complete team than

Tennessee and is a

worthy favorite on the

road. PICK: STEELERS -2

Packers at Texans 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Packers -3.5 | Total: 57

Coming off what was arguably the

second-worst start of his career, Aaron

Rodgers is likely very angry. He was

under constant pressure from Tampa

Bay’s defense, was sacked more times

in that game (four) than he had been in

the previous four games combined

(three). He threw multiple intercep-

tions for just the 16th time in his career.

For an idea of how unusual that was

for Rodgers, the two interceptions

equaled his total from the entire 2018

season and raised his interception rate

this year to 1.15 percent, which is still

the fourth-lowest rate among players

who have attempted 100 or more pas-

ses.

The Texans (1-5) have allowed 13

passing touchdowns this season (tied

for 28th in the N.F.L.) and have just one

interception (tied for 32nd). If the Pack-

ers (4-1) can cobble together a way to

keep J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus

away from Rodgers, he should be able

to pick apart Houston’s defense with

ease. But that is suddenly a large if.

PICK: PACKERS -3.5

Buccaneers at Raiders

4:05 p.m., Fox

Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 53.5

The Buccaneers (4-2) did not sign Tom

Brady thinking they were getting the

record-setter from 2007. They signed

him because he rarely makes mistakes

(1.4 percent interception rate since

2009), he has shown steady leadership,

and he can still stretch a field, even at

43, when he needs to — he just doesn’t

do it very often. Tampa Bay knows its

youthful defense is its future, and the

team’s plan showed its potential in last

week’s dismantling of Green Bay. The

question now is if the Buccaneers will

fall prey to the trap of underestimating

the Raiders (3-2), as Kansas City did

two weeks ago. Tampa Bay was uneven

enough in its first five games that it

shouldn’t be anointed a contender just

yet, but a win on the road against a

scrappy team might get them there.

PICK: BUCCANEERS -3

Chiefs at Broncos 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Chiefs -9.5 | Total: 48

In Week 6, Drew Lock of the Broncos

(2-3) joined Colin Kaepernick as the

only first- or second-year quarterbacks

to win a regular-season game on the

road in Foxborough, Mass., since 2001.

All other starters — a group that in-

cludes Patrick Mahomes — went 0-40.

It’s a fun statistic to type, but it belies

the fact that Lock’s passer rating in the

win was 34.9 and all of Denver’s points

came on field goals. That will not work

against Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-1).

But the Broncos are 4-1 against the

spread, and could get to 5-1 if they can

lull Kansas City into a quiet victory

rather than a loud one.

As for running back Le’Veon Bell, the

level of attention he has received since

joining the Chiefs is at least a little

curious. Coach Andy Reid said Bell is

not necessarily going to be active for

this game. Once he’s activated, he will

likely be beneath Clyde Edwards-

Helaire on the team’s depth chart, and

the dynamic offensive threat that his

new teammates have been raving about

for two weeks was last seen in peak

form on an N.F.L. field in Week 14 of the

2017 season. Could his career be reborn

in Kansas City? Anything is possible

with Mahomes and Reid. But it is not a

given. PICK: BRONCOS +9.5

49ers at Patriots 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Patriots -2.5 | Total: 44.5

The 49ers (3-3) desperately want last

week to be an indication of their quality,

and the Patriots (2-3) are hoping the

opposite is true for them. San Francisco

opened a big early lead and cruised to a

win over the Rams. New England lost

at home to Denver despite Cam New-

ton being given several easy chances to

push his team ahead. The truth for both

teams is probably somewhere in the

middle. The 49ers’ offense needs more

from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo,

and its defense is missing too many

important players. The Patriots may

not be a top contender, but they’re not

“scoring just 12 points against Denver”

level bad.

If running back Raheem Mostert

were available, this game would have

upset potential. But with San Francisco

starting a third-string running back,

and Newton having shaken off some

rust, New England should take care of

business at home. PICK: PATRIOTS -2.5

Bills at Jets 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Bills -13 | Total: 46

People have stopped talking about Josh

Allen as a candidate for the N.F.L.’s

Most Valuable Player Award. His out-

rageous four-game start to the season

has given way to consecutive disap-

pointing games, and a pair of losses for

the Bills (4-2). To be fair, losing to Kan-

sas City and Tennessee is not exactly

an indictment of Allen or his team-

mates, and the offensive machine of the

first four weeks should return in

earnest against the Jets (0-6). Picking a

team to win by two touchdowns is

always an enormous risk — a few

meaningless scores in garbage time can

turn a blowout into a margin of 10 or

fewer — but Gang Green has no one

capable of slowing down wide receivers

Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole

Beasley, and Buffalo may want to work

out some of its recent frustration on the

worst team in the N.F.L. PICK: BILLS -13

Panthers at Saints 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Saints -7.5 | Total: 51

Alvin Kamara may want to stretch his

legs before this game. The Panthers

(3-3) “only” allow 121.3 yards rushing a

game — 18th-best in the N.F.L. — but in

terms of efficiency they are far worse.

They allow an average of 4.9 yards a

carry (27th) and have conceded nine

rushing touchdowns (tied for 29th),

leaving them rated as the 26th most

efficient run defense by Football Out-

siders. So if the Saints (3-2) want to

rest their passing game for a week,

Kamara could exploit those weaknesses

and carry the team to a slightly nar-

rower win than oddsmakers have pre-

dicted. PICK: PANTHERS +7.5

Jaguars at Chargers 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Chargers -7.5 | Total: 49

This is a matchup of very different

one-win teams. The Jaguars (1-5) have

lost five straight, have cooled off on

offense after a strongish start and have

the worst defense in the N.F.L. There is

some reason for optimism in the distant

future considering the potential of

running back James Robinson and wide

receivers D.J. Chark and Laviska

Shenault Jr. But that optimism turning

into anything meaningful would involve

replacing Gardner Minshew at quarter-

back and just about every player on the

team’s defense.

The Chargers (1-4), meanwhile, have

lost four in a row, but have an ex-

tremely bright future with quarterback

Justin Herbert, who has kept each of

those four games within a touchdown,

twice going to overtime. Coming out of

a bye week, Los Angeles has several

winnable games lined up over the next

five weeks, and the team could theoreti-

cally go from a basement-dweller to a

fringe playoff contender should Herbert

and his solid group of targets (Keenan

Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter

Henry) stay healthy.

Spotting a team with a few key inju-

ries on defense nearly eight points,

however, may be too bold. A narrower

victory is more likely. PICK: JAGUARS +7.5

Browns at Bengals 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Browns -3 | Total: 53.5

No one throws cold water on enthusi-

asm quite like the Browns (4-2). Cleve-

land got off to its best five-game start

since 1994 and proceeded to get demol-

ished so brutally by Pittsburgh in Week

6 that Case Keenum, the team’s backup

quarterback, had his name trending on

Twitter by halftime. Was that an overre-

action? It will probably feel like one on

Sunday, as Cleveland’s offense should

feast on the Bengals (1-4-1), whom they

beat by 35-30 in Week 2. But with four

games of 32 or more points, and two

games of 7 or fewer, it would be fair to

label Cleveland as an exciting team that

isn’t ready for true contender status.

PICK: BROWNS -3

Cowboys at Washington

Football Team 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Off | Total: Off

The N.F.C. East is so bad that even

after last week’s humiliation at the

hands of the Cardinals, the Cowboys

(2-4) stayed in first place. And they can

cement themselves there by beating

the lowly Footballers (1-5) on the road.

There was a lot to not

like about Dallas’s per-

formance on Monday

night. The pass protec-

tion was awful, which

forced Andy Dalton into

numerous throws he’d

like back. And even the

throws Dalton had time

for didn’t look very good.

Ezekiel Elliott made

costly mistakes and the

Cowboys’ defense made

Arizona’s offense look

like that of the Baltimore

Ravens. There are even

rumblings that the team

is desperately unhappy

with Coach Mike McCarthy, who is six

games into a five-year contract.

Dalton is not what he once was, but

he is probably not as bad as he looked

on Monday. Elliott has declined over

the last few seasons, but he is not typi-

cally a liability. And Dallas, should the

team be able to sort out some of those

issues, still has an absurd collection of

pass-catchers. If that isn’t enough to

beat the Footballers, who according to

Football Outsiders have the third-worst

offense in the N.F.L., then this division

will be even more chaotic — and even

more pointless — for the rest of the

season. PICK: COWBOYS

Lions at Falcons 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Falcons -2.5 | Total: 57

Teams often get a boost from firing a

struggling coach. But to say Raheem

Morris taking over for Dan Quinn was

the key to the Falcons (1-5) getting

their first win of the season would be to

ignore the return of receiver Julio

Jones to the team’s lineup, and the fact

that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins

appeared to confuse Atlanta’s defensive

backs with his own wide receivers. But

regardless of whom should receive

credit, the Falcons have a chance for a

second win when they host the Lions

(2-3).

Detroit has a more interesting of-

fense than it has had in recent seasons

because of the emergence of running

back D’Andre Swift and the veteran

presence of Adrian Peterson. And the

team has won two of its last three

games, so it’s not surprising that the

point spread is fairly close. But with

Jones and Calvin Ridley wreaking

havoc on the Lions’ secondary, Atlanta

should be able to win even if Detroit’s

defense repeats last week’s success in

slowing down the run. PICK: FALCONS -2.5

Bears at Rams

8:15 p.m., Monday ESPN

Line: Rams -5.5 | Total: 45.5

Are the Bears (5-1) better than anyone

thought? Or are they benefiting from

an outrageous spurt of good luck that

has powered their start to the season?

Your answer probably depends on your

rooting interests and/or your proximity

to Chicago. Nothing about the team’s

offense indicates that future opponents

have anything to fear, but the Bears’

defense is legitimate enough that you

can’t completely write off their success.

And almost regardless of how real the

start is, the fact remains that over the

last 10 seasons, 24 of 29 teams that

started 5-1 went on to make the play-

offs. (And this year’s postseason is

expanded.)

Going on the road to face the Rams

(4-2) should be a good test for Chicago.

Los Angeles has several ways to beat a

team offensively, and with Aaron Don-

ald — arguably the game’s most domi-

nant player — likely smarting from his

disappointing performance in last

week’s loss to San Francisco, it could be

a very long day for Chicago’s Nick

Foles. PICK: RAMS -5.5

N.F.L. Week 7

By BENJAMIN HOFFMAN

An ‘Abundance of Caution’ Is the Heavy Favorite

Why Aren’t the Seahawks More Dominant?•A Throwback Game in Nashville •Rodgers Might Get Mad

The Texans’ J.J. Watt zeroing in last weekend on Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

FREDERICK BREEDON/GETTY IMAGES

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTSSUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2020 N 35

ONLINETo follow along with this week’s N.F.L. action, including scores, injury updates and highlights, go to: nytimes.com/sports

HOW BETTING

LINES WORK

A quick primer for

those who are not

familiar with

betting lines:

Favorites are

listed next to a

negative number

that represents

how many points

they must win by

to cover the

spread. Sea-

hawks -3.5, for

example, means

that Seattle must

beat Arizona by at

least 4 points for

its backers to win

their bet. Gam-

blers can also bet

on the total

score, or whether

the teams’ com-

bined score in the

game is over or

under a pre-

selected number

of points.

Bye weeks

Indianapolis,

Miami, Minne-

sota, Baltimore

All times are

Eastern

Ezekiel Elliott

has struggled

this season, and

so have the rest

of the Cowboys.

Fortunately for

them, the

N.F.C. East is

horrible.

RON JENKINS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Differential

Ballgame

What the Seahawks lack in

point differential they have

made up for in wins — so far.

Ravens, 5-1

+ 75

Steelers, 5-0

+ 62

Buccaneers, 4-2

+ 55

Cardinals, 4-2

+ 54

Chiefs, 5-1

+ 48

Dolphins, 3-3

+ 47

Colts, 4-2

+ 42

Rams, 4-2

+ 38

Titans, 5-0

+ 38

Seahawks, 5-0

+ 34

THURSDAY

Eagles 22

Giants 21

It was often

painful to watch,

and it came down

to its final min-

utes, but the

Eagles (2-4-1)

got a beautiful

play at exactly the

right moment

against the Giants

(1-6), with Car-

son Wentz mak-

ing a nearly im-

possible throw to

Boston Scott for a

go-ahead 18-yard

touchdown with

just 40 seconds

remaining. Phila-

delphia did not

reward the faith

we put in the

team with a pick

of Eagles -4, but

they got a win at

home, which is

vital to their

hopes of winning

the extremely

uncompetitive

N.F.C. East.

For as beautiful

as the Wentz’s

throw was, how-

ever, this game

will be remem-

bered for a touch-

down that didn’t

happen. Daniel

Jones, the Giants’

second-year

quarterback,

broke free into

the open field for

what seemed like

an easy 88-yard

touchdown, only

to lose his footing

and fall down 8

yards shy of the

goal line. The

Giants went on to

score on the

drive, but Jones

will hear about

the play for years

to come.

.