Barron's - USA (2020-10-26)

(Antfer) #1

30 BARRON’S October 26, 2020


Q&A


Technology is an important part of every


sector, and is blurring the lines between


and among sectors.


Student of


Disruptive


Innovation


An Interview With Cathie Wood


Founder, ARK Investments


A


RK Investment Managementhas been in


the spotlight since it was founded in 2014.


The firm is solely focused on disruptive in-


novation—and founder Cathie Wood, a


trained economist, is famously bullish on


Tesla and Bitcoin, two frequently conten-


tious investments. ARK’s optimism about


both has given the firm a stellar track record.


How stellar? The company’s five actively managed


exchange-traded funds have returned 92% year to date


on average, and the four that have five-year records have


returned an annualized 37% in that time, beating the


broad market and most actively managed competitors.


Today, the firm manages $30 billion in assets, including


$15 billion in ETFs.


Barron’sinterviewed Wood in early August of last


year, when unemployment was at historic lows and the


stock market was on a tear. Now, as the Covid-19 pan-


demic has disrupted many aspects of our lives and pos-


sibly ushered in permanent social and economic


changes, Wood chatted withBarron’sagain—about inno-


vation and destruction in a post-Covid world, a new


golden age for health care, her favorite stocks for the


digital workspace,Tesla(ticker: TSLA),Nikola


(NKLA), and more. Our conversation has been edited


and condensed for clarity.


Barron’s:You’re a student of disruption. What does


Covid mean for the global economy?


Cathie Wood:Covid-19 is accelerating all the disruptive


innovations. Many companies that serve the digital work-


place say they didn’t expect this many customers for at least


three to five years. There’s been a rush into the new world.


The other side of disruptive innovation is creative destruc-


tion. Many companies are being disintermediated by these


new platforms—not surprisingly, in financials, energy, and


industrials tied to the internal combustion engine. There


are a lot of companies in harm’s way.


By EVIE LIU


October 26, 2020 BARRON’S 31


Health care will see the convergence of


DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence,


and CRISPR gene editing.


You describe innovation as a sub-


asset class, similar to emerging


markets in the 1980s. How is inno-


vation as an investment style dif-


ferent from growth investing?


Innovation is early-stage growth, and


it is typically exponential growth.


Companies developing these plat-


forms can generate revenue growth of


more than 20% [annually] for years


and years. Most growth companies


have a decay rate, which means the


bigger a company gets, the harder it is


to grow. Exponential growth often


includes network effects and virality,


which means the more people joining


the network, the more valuable it be-


comes, and the faster it grows.


ARK runs concentratedportfolios,


typically with fewer than 50 stocks.


How do you choose?


Our ideas start with our research, not


any index. For example, we take a


blank sheet of paper and just say,


“What is an autonomous vehicle?


What’s the right way to build one?


What are the critical variables?” We


inevitably run into the companies that


not only have good answers, but are


leading the charge.


It’s not like we don’t make mistakes.


In the early days, we thought Lidar [a


technology that measures distance for


autonomous vehicles] was going to be-


come a really important part of the au-


tonomous taxi network. That wasn’t


correct. But we probably are pushing the


envelope further and faster than most


people, and we have a much longer time


horizon, at least seven years. That’s the


biggest secret to our strategy—the will-


ingness to step in when others are sell-


ing a stock for very short-term reasons.


We get great opportunities like that.


What areas of the market are you


most intrigued by these days?


The most inefficiently priced and un-


derappreciated part of the market is


genomics, and the most misunder-


stood is health care. Health care is the


largest part of our portfolio—it’s about


37% of the flagshipARK Innovation


[ARKK]. Technology is an important


part of every sector, and is blurring


the lines between and among sectors.


Health care [will see] the convergence


of DNA sequencing, artificial intelli-


gence, and CRISPR gene editing—all


new technologies that have fallen


enough in cost and price and are


ready for prime time now.


We learned from the coronavirus


that there were weak links in the sup-


ply chain in terms of tests and vac-


cines. But what we have this year—


very unusual—is cover for the health-


care space. No one in Congress wants


to vote against budgets to help get us


all back to work.


We think we’re headed into another


golden age for health care. Genentech


launched the biotech revolution in the


’80s, and we had 20 years of rising


returns on investments in health care.


They became super stocks. That’s


about to happen again.


Does ARK own any companies


working on a Covid-19 vaccine?


We own various parts of the ecosys-


tem leading up to the vaccine.Mod-


erna[MRNA] gets all the headlines,


but there’s room for many. In the


ARK Genomic Revolution[ARKG]


portfolio, we own a vaccine company


calledArcturus Therapeutics


[ARCT] that uses the self-replicating


MRNA. That means when you get the


vaccine, you don’t have to go for a


booster shot like you do with Mod-


erna’s vaccine. The other one isInovio


Pharmaceuticals[INO], a DNA vac-


cine manufacturer. In the flagship port-


folio we have DNA sequencerIllumina


[ILMN] and synthetic biology com-


panyTwist Bioscience[TWST]. Illu-


mina was able to read the genomic


profile of the Covid-19, and Twist was


able to write the instructions and send


them to the testing companies so they


could develop tests.


What companies have you added to


the portfolio this year?


When stocks were really beaten up, we


bought some companies whose previ-


ous valuations were just too high for


us. Telehealth is a very big idea;Tela-


doc Health[TDOC] just made a ter-


rific acquisition.DocuSign[DOCU] is


another Covid-inspired name. We


knew security would rise as an impor-


tant issue, more so now as people are


working away from their offices, so we


boughtCrowdStrike[CRWD] and


Zscaler[ZS]. Another company per-


fect for the digital workplace isPager-


Duty[PD]. It offers over-the-air soft-


ware updates before companies even


know they have a problem with their


networks. PagerDuty partners with


Zoom, Amazon Web Services, and


Salesforce.com. These enterprises are


going to encourage others to buy the


service as well. [CrowdStrike, Zscaler,


DocuSign, and PagerDuty have all


gone public in the past two years.]


You’re famous for being a Tesla


bull. What do you like now?


We believe Tesla is going to launch a


ride-hailing network to compete


againstUber[UBER] andLyft


[LYFT]. If it does that successfully, it


will be able to provide drivers with


cars. The total cost of ownership and


operating will be about one-third less


than a Toyota Camry. It’s going to be a


win-win situation—drivers can pay


$5,000 down and work the rest of the


car off by driving it, while Tesla gets


the data that the driver delivers every


day for its artificial intelligence en-


gine. When the world goes autono-


mous—unlike drivers who were work-


ing for Uber and Lyft who will be left


out of the party—Tesla’s ride-hailing


network of drivers will own an auton-


omous car that will work for them.


They will be entrepreneurs.


If Tesla pulls this off, it will be so


much more profitable than just build-


ing cars. Electric-vehicle margins are


in the 20s [percent range]; ride-hail-


ing is probably in the 40s; and soft-


ware-as-a-service and autonomous


vehicles will be in the 80s. This is a


margin structure that most auto ana-


lysts have never seen.


A lot of people have compared


Nikola, which makes trucks pow-


ered by hydrogen fuel cells, to


Tesla, which uses electric batter-


ies. Do you see the parallel?


No. More importantly, Nikola was


comparing itself to Tesla, so we did


take a close look. We started doing


research on hydrogen fuel cells in



  1. We learned that it is 33% more


expensive for a trucker to operate a


hydrogen fuel-cell truck over a seven-


year period. And the infrastructure


for a hydrogen-fuel ecosystem costs


five to 10 times more than electric in-


frastructures. The most important


difference is: I charge my Tesla at


home; you’ll not be able to do that with


a hydrogen fuel-cell car. So frankly, it’s


an uneconomic idea. Toyota has not


had success with its hydrogen fuel-cell


car. I don’t know why we should be-


lieve it will be successful for trucks.


You wrote to Elon Musk in 2018 to


dissuade him from taking the com-


pany private. Is there a risk that


great innovative companies could


remain privately held for longer?


Companies that are staying private for


so long are spending too much time


getting ready for their liquidity event,


prettying things up—and they’re los-


ing strategic focus. Good cases in


point are Uber and Lyft. By all rights,


they should have the autonomous-taxi


network opportunity; they should be


in the pole position. But they’re no-


where [close to that]. In fact, their


stocks have been cut almost in half


since the IPO—even before the coro-


navirus. If they had started outfitting


the cars of their drivers, they could


have much more data today than


Tesla. The name of the game in the


autonomous world is, who is going to


have the most real-world driving data


and the highest quality data, along


with the best AI expertise. They don’t,


because they weren’t thinking about


this, but they should have been.


What else do you like?


If we’re going to bring supply chains


closer to home, 3D printing. Even


though it’s had a very slow start and is


exclusive to the aerospace area, adop-


tion will accelerate because it’s so


much cheaper and faster, and you can


manufacture very close to the end


consumer. Another area is industrial


robots. Collaborative robots, in partic-


ular, are covered with sensors, so they


can work alongside human beings.


That’s especially relevant now that


human beings are going to have to


socially distance a bit more.


Adrienne Grunwald Thanks, Cathie.B


These new technologies have fallen


enough in cost and price and are


ready for prime time now.


“We believe Tesla is going to launch a ride-hailing


network to compete against Uber and Lyft.”—Cathie Wood


Pouncing on


Opportunities


ARK’s five


actively man-


aged ETFs have


an average


year-to-date


return of


92%


with help from


big bets on Covid-


inspired stocks


like Teladoc.

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