Barron's - USA (2020-10-26)

M34 BARRON’S October 26, 2020

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.50

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.00

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 1.82

Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.09 1.86

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.101 0.106 1.664

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.100 0.105 1.630

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.117 0.117 1.640

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.115 0.115 1.600
Avg weekly auction-c 0.11 0.10 1.63

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.75

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 1.85

2 months 0.15 0.15 1.85

3 months 0.18 0.18 1.95

6 months 0.20 0.20 1.93

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.565 -0.563 -0.497

3 months -0.527 -0.540 -0.431

6 months -0.508 -0.515 -0.405

12 months -0.459 -0.463 -0.303

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.16 0.15 1.80

3 months 0.22 0.22 1.93

6 months 0.25 0.26 1.93

12 months 0.34 0.34 1.96

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.95 1.90 3.33

Bank money market-z 0.10 0.10 0.22

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.07

6-Month Certif-z 0.18 0.18 0.55

12-Month Certif-z 0.25 0.26 0.80
30 Month Accounts-z 0.25 0.25 0.85

5-Year Certificates-z 0.42 0.43 1.14

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

N D J F M A M J J A S O

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100s

CBOEs

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedOct21:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,533,450 + 62,376 +2,933,060

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2,804 + 185 + 2,803

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 9 -17 -44

Float -219 + 27 -118

OtherF.R.Assets 38,990 + 1,028 + 11,562

TotalFedCredit# 7,110,865 + 65,494 +3,177,663

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,453 + 14 + 440

Total 7,199,160 + 65,488 +3,178,993

Currencyincirc 2,042,094 + 1,002 + 270,561

Treas.CashHldgs 39 + 12 -161

Treas.FedDeposits 1,724,792 + 43,794 +1,346,807

ForeignFedDeposits 20,034 + 1,132 + 14,847

OtherFedDeposits 197,985 + 23,708 + 138,355

OtherFRliab/cap 50,401 -1,907 + 4,818

Totalfactors 4,338,680 + 66,937 +1,767,557

ReservesF.R.banks 2,860,480 -1,449 +1,411,437

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,402,789 -7,711 -16,719

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded September: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,852,800 2,799,700 1.90 1,504,800

Nonborrowed Res 2,774,400 2,716,600 2.13 1,504,700

Borrowed Reserves 78,387 83,126 -5.70 102

MonetaryBase 4,880,400 4,807,400 1.52 3,202,700

SouthKorea(Won) .0008862 .0008755 1128.45 1142.21

SriLanka(Rupee) .0054 .0054 184.2700 184.2500

Sweden(Krona) .1143 .1130 8.7483 8.8488

Switzerland(Franc) 1.1061 1.0929 .9041 .9150

Taiwan(Dollar) .03492 .03475 28.633 28.780

Thailand(Baht) .03192 .03207 31.330 31.180

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1256 .1260 7.9640 7.9381

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0353 .0351 28.3500 28.4500

U.K.(Pound) 1.3042 1.2916 .7668 .7742

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02343 .02332 42.675 42.890

----

Euro 1.1861 1.1717 .8431 .8534

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,October23,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0128 .0129 78.1379 77.4675

Australia(Dollar) .7137 .7078 1.4011 1.4128

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6522 2.6520 .3771 .3771

Brazil(Real) .1779 .1771 5.6197 5.6465

Bulgaria(Lev) .6065 .5993 1.6489 1.6686

Canada(Dollar) .7618 .7580 1.3126 1.3192

Chile(Peso) .001289 .001260 775.70 793.50

China(Renminbi) .1495 .1493 6.6868 6.6976

Colombia(Peso) .0002639 .0002599 3789.50 3848.10

Croatia(Kuna) .1565264 .1545404 6.39 6.47

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04358 .04295 22.946 23.281

Denmark(Krone) .1594 .1574 6.2740 6.3520

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0636 .0637 15.7111 15.6984

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7502 7.7502

Hungary(Forint) .003248 .003214 307.92 311.15

Iceland(Krona) .007201 .007179 138.86 139.30

India(Rupee) .01354 .01362 73.839 73.444

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000682 .0000680 14660 14700

Israel(Shekel) .2962 .2961 3.3764 3.3770

Japan(Yen) .009548 .009487 104.73 105.40

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002337 .002329 427.89 429.38

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2730 3.2685 .3055 .3060

Macau(Pataca) .1252 .1252 7.9885 7.9880

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2405 .2411 4.1575 4.1485

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0479 .0473 20.8643 21.1431

NewZealand(Dollar) .6695 .6604 1.4937 1.5142

Norway(Krone) .1083 .1066 9.2369 9.3799

Oman(Rial) 2.5974 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00619 .00615 161.550 162.617

Philippines(Peso) .02066 .02056 48.409 48.646

Poland(Zloty) .2596 .2577 3.8519 3.8805

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6413 3.6413

Russia(Ruble)-a .01312 .01285 76.217 77.803

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7506 3.7510

Singapore(Dollar) .7364 .7362 1.3580 1.3583

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0617 .0604 16.2012 16.5606

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 10/23 10/16 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1903.65 1905.05 1513.45

Silver,troyounce 24.58 24.26 18.00

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1980.37 76.17 4.00

MapleLeaf 1999.41 95.21 5.00

MexicanPeso 2303.89 8.00 0.35

AustriaCrown 1869.50 3.00 0.16

AustriaPhil 1999.41 95.21 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1999.41 95.21 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1904.20

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 10/22 10/15 Ago Chg.

923.32391.56 Gold mining 862.06 872.07515.09 –1.15

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 68% 65% 61%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 35.8% 34.8% 34.7%

Bearish 33.0 35.7 39.0

Neutral 31.2 29.5 26.3

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 47% 50% 46%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 49.7% 42.7% 49.9%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 23,207 r18,903 8,865

Municipal (z) 16,463 r14,414 17,468

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.54 1.52 2.74

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.02 3.07 3.52

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

50.9 49.4 77.8

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4711.90 4812.00 4051.89

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3287.04 3309.66 3055.14

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

328.94 333.00 300.72

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.37 2.35 2.75

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.63 3.62 3.62

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.54 +.54 –.45

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.23 2.18 2.90

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedOctober12

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,603.4r5,507.43,945.3 42.03

M1(notadjusted) 5,368.1r5,524.73,804.8 41.09

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,794.9r18,688.615,160.7 23.97

M2(notadjusted) 18,734.1r18,713.915,163.6 23.55

MonthendedSeptember

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) r1.114 r1.125 1.218 -8.54

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedSeptember

M1(seas.adjusted) r5,503.5r5,390.63,902.8 41.01

M2(seas.adjusted) r18,647.9r18,403.415,028.5 24.08

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

N D J F M A M J J A SO

Barron's Gold Mining Index (862.06)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Bar None:Investors, rather than jewelry,

are driving gold now, said UBS. It moved

sideways this week, to $1,904 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 10/19 10/20 10/21 10/22 10/23

NYSE 1.08 .82 .77 .56 1.09

NYSEAmerican .67 1.25 .38 .46 .59

Nasdaq .51 1.04 .70 .78 1.21