42 Middle East & Africa The EconomistNovember 7th 2020
21party is strongest, some contenders tried to
buy its endorsement. Derrick Ssonko, a
mechanic in blue overalls, says he was in-
spired to run for local councillor, but the
party ticket went to a rival who paid a bribe.
He worries that the nupis “old wine in new
bottles”, even though everyone he knows
will vote for it.
The nupis contesting fewer than half of
parliamentary seats. David Lewis Rubon-
goya, the party’s powerful secretary-gen-
eral, says that scores of contenders pulled
out because of a court case that challenged
its legal status (the case was dismissed, but
only after nominations had closed). Many
others could not muster nomination fees
of 3m shillings ($800), which is the average
annual income in Uganda.
But the paranoid president is not the
type to take chances. He warns that Mr
Wine has “foreign backers who fear a
strong Uganda”. Soldiers and police raid
the nup’s offices on spurious pretexts, and
invoke covid-19 to block public gatherings.
Activists are threatened or bought off. In
2018 Mr Wine was beaten by soldiers and
charged with treason, along with 36 of his
supporters (a conviction is unlikely). Vot-
ers are wary of the disorder that has always
accompanied political transition. After lis-
tening to an nupactivist in a northern vil-
lage, 80-year-old Rose Akello raises her
hand. “Death is painful,” she says, recalling
Uganda’s violent past. “When you are pur-
sued by a knife, don’t you go and hide?”
Kizza Besigye, the main opposition
leader in the past four elections, is sitting
out this poll, arguing that Mr Museveni
cannot be removed by voting alone. Some
activists in the nupagree, but also blame
Dr Besigye for demoralising voters. Their
apparentstrategyistodrawa massiveturn-
out,then“defendthevote”onthestreets.“A vote must be cast before we can fight for
it,” says Mr Wine.
Powerful critics, such as Andrew
Mwenda, a journalist who is close to the
president, argue that Mr Wine’s supporters
are “radical extremists”, not liberal demo-
crats: “They’re fighting Museveni to get
power and do exactly what he’s doing, per-
haps without his finesse.”
Others try to paint the nup as a party of
Buganda, an ancient kingdom within
Uganda in which Kampala lies. Buganda’s
kabaka (king) commands deep loyalty
among the sixth of Ugandans who consider
themselves his subjects, including the
singer. Several leading politicians in the
nupcut their teeth on royalist struggles for
land and federalism. Buganda has “legiti-
mate and genuine concerns”, says Medard
Sseggona, an nuppolitician and former
minister in the kingdom’s own cabinet, but
those “are shared by other nationalities in
this country”. Mr Wine himself has cosmo-
politan instincts, nurtured in the ethnic
melting pot of the city.
In general, Mr Wine’s politics are less
revolutionary than his lyrics and red beret
suggest. His headquarters are painted with
murals of pan-African heroes like Thomas
Sankara, a socialist leader of Burkina Faso.
But he also collaborates with free-market
think-tanks. “I don’t have a very radical
programme,” he says. His most consistent
pledge is to rebuild institutions after de-
cades of personalised rule.
The singer will probably never become
president. Even if he dislodged Mr Muse-
veni, any transition would be directed by
the army. But the real force is not Mr
Wine—it is the hope he represents. From
markets to minibuses, Ugandans repeat his
slogan,“twebereremu”. Whatdoesitmean?
Hiseyeslightup.“Getinvolved.” 7Run for office. Get arrested. Repeat“I
have escapedarrest twice today,” said
Zitto Kabwe, a Tanzanian opposition
leader, on November 2nd. But, he added, “I
cannot avoid the police for ever.” The next
day they picked him up, like so many of his
colleagues who contested Tanzania’s elec-
tion on October 28th. Some have been beat-
en. Tundu Lissu, a leading rival to Presi-
dent John Magufuli, was grabbed by police
in front of European embassies, where he
was seeking refuge having been turned
away by the American embassy. Mr Lissu
was interrogated, but not charged—per-
haps because German diplomats were
waiting outside the police station.
Democracy in Tanzania is broken—and
is in trouble elsewhere in Africa, too. Guin-
ea’s election on October 18th resulted in a
dubious victory (and a third term) for Presi-
dent Alpha Condé. At least 30 people were
killed protesting against the result, says
the opposition. Ivory Coast is in crisis after
President Alassane Ouattara won a third
term on October 31st, amid a boycott by the
opposition. Both leaders claimed not to be
bound by term limits, illustrating a dismal
recent trend (see map on next page).
Tanzania may be the most troubling
case. Not long ago it seemed on its way to
becoming a relatively prosperous democ-
racy. For more than a decade from 2000 its
economy was among Africa’s best perform-
ers. But Mr Magufuli, who took over in 2015,
has set things back. He has produced fishy
economic numbers that seem to hide real
problems, while cracking down on any op-
position. In this election he won 84% of the
vote, up from 58% in 2015, according to the
official tally. His party won enough seats to
abolish term limits, if it so chooses. The op-
position is claiming fraud. “This was not an
election,” says Mr Lissu. “It was just a gang
of people who have decided to misuse state
machinery to cling to power.”
Mr Lissu has called for protests. Mr Kab-
we hopes other countries will impose
sanctions on Tanzania. Britain, for one,
said it was “deeply troubled” by the result.
But countries in the region have been more
supine. An observer mission from the East
African Community, a regional bloc, said
the vote had been “conducted in a credible
manner”. The observer mission from the
African Union (au) has yet to express an
opinion. President Cyril Ramaphosa of
South Africa, who currently chairs the au,
congratulated Mr Magufuli on his win in a
“peaceful election”.DAKAR
Elections in Tanzania and Ivory Coast
show African democracy is falteringTanzania and Ivory CoastSetting a bad
example