The Economist - USA (2020-11-07)

46 Europe The EconomistNovember 7th 2020

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gle to muster half the number, of lighter

forces, in that time. Around 5,000 of Rus-

sia’s airborne troops are said to be on two

hours’ notice. Soldiers are kept on their

toes with huge exercises. The latest, Kavkaz

(Caucasus) 2020, involved 80,000 person-

nel and concluded on September 26th.

“Russia has traded mass for tempo,” con-

cludes Lt-General Jim Hockenhull, Brit-

ain’s chief of defence intelligence.

Russia’s armed forces enjoy the addi-

tional advantage of being blooded in battle.

Though Russia and China may have com-

parable weapons, the quality of the forces,

in training and combat experience, is

“night and day”, says Mr Kofman. In Uk-

raine, for instance, Russia has practised ar-

moured warfare and artillery duels, experi-

menting with the use of cyber-attacks and

drones to feed targeting information to its

guns. Syria, where over 63,000 Russian

personnel have served, has been a testbed

for precision strikes, air defence against re-

bel drone swarms, and the use of un-

manned vehicles.

Russian officers in Syria have even

shown signs of shedding the Soviet legacy

of rigid, top-down command and acting

with more autonomy and creativity, a prac-

tice known as “mission command”, ob-

serves Mr Adamsky. That, he says, would be

“a major departure from the Russian mili-

tary tradition”. And in both countries, Rus-

sia has honed its skills in electronic war-

fare by jamming radios, radars and drones.

Russia’s fake gpssignals in Syria were even

strong enough to bamboozle civilian air-

liners in Israel.

Not everything has been fixed, of

course. Viktor Murakhovsky, a former offi-

cer who now edits a military journal, is

positive about the reforms. But he says that

shipbuilding is slow and that the country

lags behind its rivals in long-range drones.

The new t-14 Armata tank, the next-gener-

ation Su-57 warplane and new submarines

have all been delayed. Though Russia is

adept at blowing things up in space, its age-

ing fleet of reconnaissance satellites has

shrunk over the years, with modernisation

complicated by Western sanctions. The

biggest problem of all, says Mr Kofman, is

the limited capacity of Russia’s defence in-

dustry, including shortages of skilled per-

sonnel, machine tools and components.

The trade-off between hardware and

humans is also apparent. Though troops

no longer go hungry, their pay is not great.

Mr Murakhovsky points out that a skilled

tank commander in his 20s can expect lit-

tle more than 43,000 rubles ($532) a month

in peacetime, lower than the national aver-

age. “In my opinion, it’s not enough.” Mo-

rale among conscripts, who still make up

55% of ground forces, remains low, and the

short duration of their service limits their

usefulness in combat. Though the days of

renting out warplanes may be over, last

year Russian military prosecutors an-

nounced that 2,800 military officials had

been charged with corruption. The amount

stolen totalled around $90m.

Nor has military renaissance bought

peace of mind. In a war with nato, Russia

“would have conventional superiority for a

limited period”, concludes the iiss, but

would be outgunned if the conflict dragged

on. In recent years, Mr Putin has therefore

worked to ensure that a conflict would not

drag on. He has invested heavily in nuclear

forces, unveiling a host of lurid weapons

such as hypersonic gliders, radioactive tor-

pedos designed to pollute coastal areas and

nuclear-powered cruise missiles capable

of circling the Earth indefinitely. Missiles

like the Iskander, Kalibr and Kh-101can also

carry both conventional and nuclear war-

heads (natoofficials point out that they

would have no way of knowing which until

they landed). For Russian generals, the

hope is that their revived strength means

that the nukes are never needed.

For its part, natohas largely focused on

Russian threats to the Baltic states, and the

challenges of reinforcing Europe over

weeks and months. It has underestimated

how Russia’s new firepower may be used in

a shorter, sharper and more expansive war

that would stretch far beyond the Baltics.

Its planners, and the national politicians

that set military budgets and priorities,

need to adjust their strategies and spend-

ing in the light of these new threats. 7

BRITAIN

NETH.

NORWAY

HUNG. ROM. GEORGIA

BULG.

BELARUS

CRIMEA

BlackSea

Caspian

Sea

Baltic

Sea

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

MediterraneanSea

KALININGRAD(Russia)

BELG. GERMANY

POLAND

UKRAINE

FINLAND

SWE.

EST.

TURKEY

FRANCE

GREECE

LAT. RUSSIA

LITH.

SYRIA

SPAIN

ITALY

IRAQ

IRAN

Sources: Swedish

Defence Research

Agency; TheEconomist

NATO member

Approximate ranges

ofRussian missiles

Air-launched

Sea-launched

Kalibr(Barents Sea) Ground-launched

Kalibr

(Baltic Sea)

Iskander-M

(Russian Border)

Kalibr

(Black Sea) Kalibr

(Caspian Sea)

Granat

(Barents Sea)

Kh-101

(Russian

Border)

Kh-555

(Russian

Border)

T

eeming withspooks and intrigue, Vi-

enna is no stranger to political violence.

“Carlos the Jackal” held opec’s oil minis-

ters hostage there in 1975. Since then, as-

sassinations in Austria’s capital have

claimed the lives of Kurds and Chechens,

among others. But until November 2nd Vi-

enna had largely been spared the attacks on

civilians that have menaced cities like Lon-

don, Madrid or Paris. That night four peo-

ple were killed and 23 injured, several of

them seriously, during a gun and knife

rampage in Vienna’s centre. Many were at-

tacked as they took their last chance of a

drink or a meal before Austria’s second co-

ronavirus lockdown.

The Austrian authorities identified Kuj-

tim Fejzulai, a 20-year-old man with dual

Austrian and North Macedonian citizen-

ship, as the sole gunman. Further arrests

were made on November 3rd. Mr Fejzulai,

who was shot by police, was born and

raised in Vienna to Macedonian parents of

Albanian extraction. Radicalised as a teen-

ager, in 2019 he was convicted of terrorist

offences and given a 22-month prison sen-

tence after authorities thwarted his plan to

join Islamic State (is) fighters in Syria. But

he was released in December under Aus-

tria’s lenient rules for young offenders.

The attack follows a spate of terrorism

in Europe. On October 4th a Syrian asylum-

seeker stabbed two men, killing one, in the

German city of Dresden in what may have

been a homophobic attack. Twelve days

later, on the outskirts of Paris, a teenage

Chechen refugee beheaded Samuel Paty, a

teacher who had shown his class contro-

versial cartoons of the Prophet Muham-

mad from Charlie Hebdo, a satirical maga-

zine. On October 29th a Tunisian national

Despite the horrors in Austria and

France, jihadism has declined

Terrorism in Europe

Oh Vienna