The EconomistNovember 7th 2020 Europe 472 who had arrived in France that month
killed three people at a church in Nice. On
the same day, French police shot dead a
man claiming allegiance to a far-right anti-
immigrant group near Avignon.
The flurry of attacks recalls the blood-
shed of 2015-16, when Islamist terrorists
killed 12 people at Charlie Hebdo’s offices in
January 2015, 131 people at multiple sites in
Paris in November and 86 people in Nice
the following July. Since then, however, ji-
hadism in Europe has declined markedly.
The number of completed Islamist attacks
fell every year from 2017 to 2019, while the
number of foiled ones rose, according to
Europol, the eu’s law-enforcement agency.
Ten people were killed in 2019.
Much of the violence has been associat-
ed with is, which swept through Iraq and
Syria in 2014 with the help of 5,000 or so
European recruits. The is“caliphate” was
crushed in 2019 and European security ser-
vices feared that a flood of returning fight-
ers would overwhelm their ability to mon-
itor suspects back at home. In practice, is
veterans have not proven as numerous or
violent as feared, even if the group’s ideolo-
gy has remained potent.
Even so, the threat continues to domi-
nate the work of security services. In a
speech in October, Ken McCallum, direc-
tor-general of mi5, Britain’s domestic-in-
telligence service, said that Islamist ex-
tremism remained the country’s largest
threat by volume, with “tens of thousands”
committed to the ideology, though he add-
ed that a growing share of plots came from
right-wing extremists, like the attacker in
Avignon. Mr McCallum said that tracking
plots had become harder in recent years “as
more terrorists have gone for basic attack
methods requiring little preparation”.
None of the attackers in Dresden, Paris,
Nice or Vienna is thought to have reached
Iraq or Syria. Though the Dresden suspect
had been convicted of recruiting on behalf
of isand downloading terrorist manuals,
he is believed to have been radicalised only
after arriving in Germany five years ago. Mr
Paty’s killer is known to have had contact
with a jihadist in Syria, but he never fought
there and was not known to the French au-
thorities. The Nice attacker, who had
crossed from Tunisia to Italy in late Sep-
tember, had been arrested in Tunisia for
using a knife but was not otherwise on the
radar of Tunisian, Italian or French au-
thorities. The problem seems to be less
about hardened combat veterans than
those with looser ties to the jihadist eco-
system turning to violent action.
Propaganda remains a serious issue,
too. Large caches of material inciting and
glorifying terrorism continue to circulate
freely online, says Julian King, who served
as European commissioner for security
until January. The European Parliament
has been sitting on proposals for Europe-
wideactiontoremoveonlinepropaganda
foralmosttwoyears,hesays.
Therecentattacksalsohighlightanoth-
erworryingpattern.MrFejzulaiwasletout
ofprisonearly;theDresdensuspecthad
beenreleasedonlyfivedaysbeforehisat-
tack.Thatreflectsa widerfailureofcoun-
ter-terrorismpolicy,asdoesthefactthat
MrFejzulaihadcompleteda deradicalisa-
tionprogrammethatwasevidentlyunsuc-
cessful.“InmanyEuropeancountriesthe
prioritywastogetpeoplelockedup,”says
PeterNeumannofKing’sCollegeLondon,
“andthentoforgetaboutthem,withmany
becomingfurtherradicalisedinprison.” 7ThesorrowofAustriaT
he young man tore open his coat,
threw his arms in the air, and dared the
riot cop to open fire. The startled officer re-
treated, his assault rifle still aimed at the
approaching protester. “Long live Belarus!”
chanted the crowd. It was just another Sun-
day in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, where
the opposition has staged huge rallies ev-
ery weekend since August 9th, when Alex-
ander Lukashenko, the country’s erratic
dictator, rigged presidential elections to
claim a sixth term.
Despite the bravery of the protesters, Mr
Lukashenko, 66, shows no sign of relin-quishing power. And as winter approaches,
the opposition movement could be slowly
running out of options. A nationwide
strike called for October 26th by Svetlana
Tikhanovskaya, the exiled opposition
leader, has largely crumbled amid a clamp-
down on picketing and threats of dismiss-
al. Dissenting students have been expelled
from university. More than 230 protesters
were accused this week of taking part in
“mass disorder”—a charge that could see
them incarcerated in a brutal Belarusian
prison for up to three years.
Mr Lukashenko has urged security
forces to ramp up the violence against prot-
esters. At least five people have already
been killed and dozens more have been
injured. Speaking recently to security
chiefs, he said protesters who confront po-
lice should have their arms torn off. “We’re
not taking prisoners,” he said. Days later,
security forces used live bullets at a de-
monstration, firing warning shots into the
air. The show of strength was met by sar-
castic applause from the crowd of opposi-
tion supporters.
The clampdown does not mean that the
opposition is going to give up its fight to
topple Mr Lukashenko. One in every five
urban adults is estimated to have taken
part in the protests, and around 85% of
them intend to continue demonstrating
until new elections are held, according to a
poll by Chatham House, a British think-
tank. (Independent opinion polls are
banned in Belarus.) Ms Tikhanovskaya has
called for more protests and fresh strikes to
pile economic pressure on Mr Lukashenko.
“Neither side has the strength to decisively
turn the tide in its favour,” said Igor Ilyash,
a political analyst in Minsk. “This is a war
of attrition.”
Whatever comes next, it is hard to see
how life in Belarus can go back to normal.
An entire generation of Belarusians has
been politicised by the protests and Mr Lu-
kashenko’s frenzied attempts to crush
them. “Where are our guys, dad?” asked a
small child recently, as he gazed at a pha-
lanx of riot police officers. “Over there, see,
with the flags?” his father reassured him.
The video went viral.
Waiting in the wings, should the protes-
ters get the upper hand, is Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president has said the Kremlin
will intervene in Belarus, Russia’s closest
ally, if the protests “get out of control”. Late
last month, Russian security officials ac-
cused the West of financing the opposi-
tion. The comments came as Russian state
television used images of widespread de-
struction from the Nagorno-Karabakh war
between Armenia and Azerbaijan in a re-
port on “aggressive” protesters in Minsk.
Was it a technical error or a bid to swing
Russian public opinion in favour of a mili-
tary intervention in Belarus? Only the
Kremlin knows the answer. 7Neither dictator nor protesters are
backing downBelarusStaying put