46 Time November 16, 2020
iT’s only fiTTing ThaT The mosT divisive U.s.
election in recent memory would end in a most di-
visive election-eve finish—one that will have con-
sequences for America’s standing in the world.
As of this writing, the ballot count continues to
be under way. President Donald Trump wasted little
time before declaring victory, setting himself up
to later claim that his opponents were try-
ing to “steal” the election. For Trump—
a President who has shown remarkably
little concern for the long-term health and
legitimacy of U.S. democracy— refusing to
concede makes all the sense in the world.
Beyond the powers of the presidency it-
self, Trump’s current and future command
of the Republican Party is at stake, as is his
ability to use the powers of the presidency
to shield himself from financial and legal troubles.
The chances of Trump’s gracefully conceding an
election loss were always vanishingly slim.
While there remains a good chance that Joe
Biden emerges victorious once all the ballots have
been counted, a Biden loss will be devastating for
Democratic supporters, many of whom could also
feel that the election was “rigged” against them.
Regardless of the way the final presidential
tally shakes out, one thing is increasingly clear—
in 2020, there is no advanced industrial democ-
racy more politically divided than the U.S. is today.
Trump’s overperformance in the election relative
to poll expectations solidifies that fact, and makes
clear that the divisions in the U.S. electorate are
more structural and ingrained than many political
pundits had hoped heading into November.The facT ThaT neither side looks like it will
quickly concede the election doesn’t mean that the
U.S. is on the verge of becoming an authoritarian
state; its democratic institutions, though admit-
tedly weakened in recent years, still remain firmly
entrenched, and the overall level of U.S. wealth
continues to provide some cushion. But the U.S. is
increasingly moving away from being a true, func-
tional representative democracy in the mold of a
Canada or Germany—where the direct will of the
people is reflected in government policy and their
elected leaders, and is widely accepted by the los-
ing side—and is moving more toward being a hy-
brid political system, such as we now see in Hun-
gary and Turkey. It isn’t quite that bad just yet, but
it is trending worryingly in that direction.
Regardless of who ends up being sworn in as
U.S. President, that means more dysfunctional U.S.
politics at home, and a weaker U.S. international
presence when compared with that of the past
50 years. On the domestic front, expect arguments
over political processes and policy issues like free
trade and immigration to continue raging and to
divide the country; social media will also continue
to drive the polarization of Americans of all political
stripes. That dysfunction at home will in
turn make it difficult for the U.S. to lead by
example on vital issues like climate change
and tech regulation. Or to face China with
a united front on tough issues like trade
and security. That’s true even if Biden does
ultimately secure the presidency, as he
will likely face a Republican Senate and
be limited in how much political capital he
can expend on foreign policy.
The world was looking for a “statement election”
from the U.S. It got one; expect the next four years
of U.S. politics, at home and abroad, to look more
like the past four rather than the past 50.Bremmer is a TIME columnist and president
of the Eurasia Group<
Tea drinkers in Istanbul
watch one of President
Trump’s press conferencesDYSFUNCTION
AT HOME WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR THE U.S. TO
LEAD BY EXAMPLE
AMERICA’S
FALTERING
GLOBAL ROLE
The results suggest that the U.S. won’t
reclaim its leadership role anytime soon
BY IAN BREMMER