51
been governing on an economic upswing
since 2010,” Karacsony says. “Now, they
have a real crisis to manage.”
Winning Budapest is one thing. But
take a drive out of the capital, past the
city’s cafés, stores and theaters, and it
quickly becomes clear how difficult it
might be to unseat Orban. The Prime
Minister retains huge popularity in the
heartland, boosted by years of gerryman-
dering of electoral districts.
Here in small-town Hungary, many
still regard Orban as their protector
against outside dark forces, and a booster
of conservative values. “The Prime Min-
ister gives people energy,” says Zoltan
Tessely, a veteran Orban ally and Fi-
desz member who serves as the mayor of
Bicske, a town of 12,000 people 30 min-
utes west of Budapest. “He just gives peo-
ple a good feeling.”
Some of that “good feeling” draws
from Orban’s hard-line anti- immigration
views. He won in 2018 on a fierce nation-
alist message, telling people that Europe’s
“ Christian heritage” was at risk from ref-
ugees arriving from the Middle East and
North Africa. Although few refugees
wanted to settle in Hungary, Orban’s fear-
mongering hit home nonetheless.
Europe’s migrant arrivals have been
steadily declining since 2015, yet among
Orban supporters, it is still a hot issue.
The government has severely restricted
immigration to Hungary, instead trying to
boost birth rates with payments to fami-
lies for each child born and lifetime tax-
free status for women who have four chil-
dren or more.
COVID-19 has only served to strengthen
nationalist sentiment among Orban sup-
porters, many of whom see the virus as
just another would-be invader. “The mi-
gration crisis can easily be connected
with this pandemic,” Tessely says. “Peo-
ple came in infected with COVID,” he
says. “The pandemic is worse among the
migration trail.”
Prevailing against those messages
will require an all-out effort from Or-
ban’s critics —and perhaps a unity can-
didate. Karacsony demurs when asked
whether he himself will run against
Orban in 18 months. But he is now the
leading voice of an emerging political
force. His reluctance to declare his ambi-
tions to be Prime Minister, allies believe,
could be in order to spare Budapest, and
himself, being the target of months of
vitriol from Orban.
Increasingly, though, he sounds like
he is preparing for battle. In an impas-
sioned speech outside city hall on Oct. 23,
the anniversary of the country’s uprising
against the Soviet Union in 1956, he im-
plored Hungarians to fight for freedom
against authoritarian rule, just as their
forebears had done decades ago. “No
power should ever define itself as the
country it rules,” he said, aiming his anger
at Orban. “What makes a strong leader
is his ability to unite, rather than divide,
people.” —With reporting by Gabi Horn/
budapest and Madeline roacHe/
london
^
Karacsony’s election in October 2019
was the first electoral defeat for
Fidesz in nine years
ATTILA KISBENEDEK—AFP/GETTY IMAGES
