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◼ ELECTION Bloomberg Businessweek November 9, 2020Politicalscientistsliketosaycampaigns
aredecidedbypersonalitymorethan
policy.That’sneverbeentruerthanit is
thisyear.PresidentTrumpranforreelec-
tiononhistrackrecordandonbeinghis
ownfabulousself,scarcelylayingouta
second-termagenda.“Hehasnoeco-
nomicplan.I don’tmeanthatI don’tlike
it.It doesn’texist,”saysGlennHubbard,
a ColumbiaUniversityeconomistwho
was chairman of President George
W.Bush’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers.
Former VicePresident JoeBiden,
Trump’sDemocraticchallenger,does
haveanagenda,butit camesecond
duringthe campaigntohismessage
ofreconciliation.“Iamrunningasa
proudDemocrat,butI willgovernas
an American president,”he said in
Gettysburg,Pa.,onOct.6.Butwhenit’s
alloverbuttheshouting,policieswill
matteragain,especiallyforbusiness-
people who have political preferences
but who most of all just want to know
what kind of environment they’ll be
operating in for the next four years.
Under a President Biden, the next
four years would most likely be a period
of convalescence. Americans elected
Barack Obama in 2008 because they
wanted one kind of change and Trump
in 2016 because they wanted a different
kind. This time many would settle for
sanity, calm, and the normal functioning
of a normal government.
For business, a middle-of-the-road
Biden administration could hit the sweet
spot. Biden wouldn’t attempt to undo
all of Trump’s legacy. He’d likely leave
in place some, though not all, of the
tax cuts and deregulation that led many
executives to support Trump despite his▶ Trump promises more of the same,
while Biden hopes to be a healerWILL IT BE CALM
OR CHAOS?
manifestfaults.Bidenwouldtrytorepair
traderelationswithalliesthatTrump
sunderedwithsuchill-advised gambits
as tariffs on their products in the name
of U.S. national security. He would rejoin
the Paris climate accord, but, to the con-
sternation of his green supporters, he
says he wouldn’t try to shut down frack-
ing for shale oil and natural gas or adopt
the Green New Deal. He might step up
antitrust enforcement, which might be
bad for some giant companies but poten-
tially good for their smaller rivals.
Biden’s earliest priority would be
getting a grip on the pandemic. Trump’s
greatestfailingasa managerwastopri-
oritizeeconomicgrowthoverhuman
livesbyplayingdownthecoronavirus.
That had the unintended consequence
of harming both lives and livelihoods:
Businesses ranging from restaurants to
airlines are in worse shape than they
would have been if the administra-
tion had beaten back the virus through
aggressive early action.
True, Trump struck a chord with his
base, particularly in South Florida, when
he said Biden “has handed control to
the socialists and Marxists and left-wing
extremists like his vice presidential can-
didate.” But the accusation didn’t ring
true with a majority of voters, including
some crossover Republicans, who sense
that Biden is a moderate and that his
running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of
California, while unabashedly liberal, is a
team player. Among Biden’s most trusted
aides are holdovers from the Obama
administration such as Bruce Reed, Tony
Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and Anita Dunn.
Not a socialist in the bunch.
In fact, the notion that Bidenwould present a daunting obstacle
for any other Republican hopefuls.
“Defining Trump’s base is tricky,
but there’s a clear group of die-hards,”
says John Sides, a political scientist
at Vanderbilt University who helps
oversee the Democracy Fund-UCLA
Nationscape poll. “We’ve been inter-
viewing the same people over time,
and those who have a consistently high
view of Trump is maybe 20% of respon-
dents.” That’s more support than any
other Republican has.
Declaring his candidacy could also
appeal to Trump for reasons that have
nothing to do with wanting to get back
to the White House. He has privately
expressed anxiety to allies about scru-
tiny from prosecutors in New York and
possible federal probes into his business
empire that could arise once he leaves
office. One Democratic lawyer notes
that if Trump were to lose and declare
himself a candidate for 2024, he could
claim that any investigation was politi-
cally motivated and designed to thwart
his return to the presidency.
Some Trump allies envision no
scenario where he willingly leaves
thestage,regardless ofthe election
outcome—a possibility that would
greatly complicate the party’s effort to
move beyond him and renew its appeal
tothebroadswathsoftheelectorate
thathavedefectedtoDemocrats.“Only
twothingscanhappen—Trump wins or
it’s stolen,” says Steve Bannon, Trump’s
chief strategist in the 2016 election.
“[Presumed Republican presidential
hopefuls] Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton,
Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo may not
realize it, but they’re running for VP on
Trump’s ticket in 2024.”
Without a crystal ball, no one can
know if Trump will return to the White
House next year or in the future, or if
he’ll even try. Bannon has added incen-
tive to tout Trump’s strength and belittle
his rivals, since he was indicted for
fraud in August and would benefit from
a Trump pardon. But one prediction
from him seems like a safe bet, and one
sure to induce migraines in Republican
leaders eager to move on from Trump:
“He’s not going away.” �Joshua Green