Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-09)

17

◼ ELECTION November 9, 2020

7.9%

4.7%

7.3%

3.9%

7.4%

5.3%

7.2%

Unemployment

rate

26.

20.

16.

24.

24.

12.

9.

S&P 500

p-eratio

Shareof

nationalincome

heldbytop1%

12.

12.

14.

14.

15.

16.

15.

Birthrateper

1,000population

101

113

39

129

78

119

79

Consumer

confidence

36.0%

33.4%

29.4%

25.6%

21.4%

20.3%

17.0%

Shareof

populationwith

collegedegree*

28%

26%

13%

56%

29%

56%

17%

Satisfiedwith

howthingsare

goingin theU.S.

Government

debtasa share

ofGDP

80.5%

76.4%

39.4%

33.7%

46.8%

39.9%

25.5%

2021

2017

2009

2001

1993

1989

1981

Trump

Obama

Bush

Clinton

Bush

Reagan

WHATTHEYINHERITED

Conditionsjustbeforethepresidenttookoffice

2021 NUMBERS ARE THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE. *PEOPLE 25 YEARS OR OLDER. DATA: U.S. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET, CENSUS BUREAU, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, WORLD INEQUALITY DATABASE, BLOOMBERG

20.5%

19.6%

19.4%

18.4%

15.3%

15.3%

11.2%

would put his energy into winning

over Republicans deeply worries the

Democratic Party’s liberal wing. The

tenuous coalition of environmental-

ists and labor leaders who support

his energy and green agendas could

unravel if he prioritizes jobs in the fossil

fuel industry over saving the planet.

Progressives are beginning to air dis-

agreementswithhimthattheykeptsub

rosaformostofthecampaign.There

wouldbe pressureon Biden togive

cabinetseatstoalliesofBernieSanders

ofVermont,thedemocraticsocialist

whofinishedsecondintheprimaries,

andElizabethWarrenofMassachusetts,

whosedemandsfortoughfinancialreg-

ulationsworryWallStreet,if notthesen-

atorsthemselves.

Liberals say the perception that

Obamasavedthebanksin 2008 and 2009

whilelettinghomeownersgobustsowed

theseedsofTrumpism.“Oneofthe

thingsDemocratshavelearnedisthat

unlessthereis realchange,thatworking

peoplereallydofeela difference,we

wouldbesettingthestageforanother

Trump.A differentTrump,butanother

Trump,”saysHeidiShierholz,senior

economistanddirectorofpolicyatthe

EconomicPolicyInstituteinWashington.

“Itisreallyimportantthateconomic

growthis morebroadlyshared.”

TotheextentthatTrumphasenun-

ciateda planforthenextfouryears,it’s

moreofthesame:moretaxcuts,more

deregulation,more “America First”

foreignpolicyandtraderelations.Trump

argued—correctly,forthemostpart—that

thingsweregoingwellbeforeCovid- 19

hitearlythisyear.TheU.S.economywas

runningstrong,corporateprofitswere

high,andunemploymentrateswereat

half-centurylows.A yearagothejobless

rateforBlackmentouched5.1%,the

lowestsincemonthlyrecordkeeping

beganin1972.That’swhateconomists

calla “high-pressureeconomy.”When

employers’preferredhiringpoolruns

dry,theyreachouttopeople they’d nor-

mallyoverlook. Whether a Republican or

a Democrat is in the White House, strong

economicgrowth is the most powerful

forceforequal opportunity.

Democrats argue that the Trump

expansion was merely a continuation

ofObama’s, but that’s not entirely fair.

Theunemployment rate is like a spring—

easiertocompress when it’s high than

whenit’salready been pushed down.

Anoverall rate of 3.5%, the level as

recentlyas February, is an undeniable

success.While Trump doesn’t deserve

allthecredit, the tax cut he signed in

December  2017 did contribute to the

growthspurt by leaving more money in

thepockets of Americans of all income

levels(though the rich got the biggest

breaks) and reducing the taxation of cor-

porate income, to 21% from 35%.

Democrats agree with Trump that a

tax cut was needed. Their complaint is

that the 2017 bill showered too much of

the benefits on rich individuals and big

companies. Biden wants to eliminate the

cuts for individuals earning more than

$400,000 a year and raise the corporate

income tax rate to 28%—rolling back half

of Trump’s cut.

One thing Biden could learn from

Trump, though he’s also seen it first-

hand, is that the four years of a presi-

dent’s term go by in a flash. For Trump,

most of 2017 was consumed with getting

the tax cut passed. In Years 2 and 3 he

pivoted to relations with China, Iran,

North Korea, and Syria; a new trade

agreement with Canada and Mexico;

fighting off impeachment; and a stale-

mate with Congress over funding of the

Southwestern border wall, which led

to a 35-day government shutdown, the

longest ever. This year, as soon as he was

acquitted by the Senate in February, he

was consumed by the pandemic, Black

Lives Matter street protests, and his fal-

tering reelection campaign. Presidents

come into office intending to set the

agenda, but the stream of history finds

its own channel.

That said, Trump did get a lot done

in the past four years, and though he’ll

be remembered as the king of chaos,

much of his agenda was conventionally

Republican. His team managed to push

deregulation of everything from inter-

net privacy to nursing homes (albeit

without managing to shrink the

PHOTO: JAKE DOCKINS

▶ Biden