The New York Times - USA (2020-11-09)

THE NEW YORK TIMES, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2020 N A

Tracking an OutbreakPrevention and Preparation

mask rules and business shut-
downs, even as experts say the
situation may further deteriorate
before the new administration
takes over in late January.
At the White House, President
Trump has largely shuttered the
coronavirus task force, insisted
without evidence that the nation is
“rounding the corner” in the fight
against the virus, and suggested
that he might fire the nation’s top
infectious disease expert, Dr. An-
thony S. Fauci. In the days before
and after Election Day, six White
House aides and a top campaign
adviser tested positive for the vi-
rus.
All of it comes as colder weather
in much of the nation will force
people indoors, where the virus is
known to spread more readily; as
college semesters end and stu-
dents return home; and as gather-
ings for Thanksgiving, Christmas
and other holidays threaten to
sow new outbreaks.
“I see this as a very precarious
moment,” said Dr. Ashish K. Jha,
dean of the Brown University
School of Public Health, who said
that the Trump administration
had “basically thrown in the tow-
el” on trying to control the pan-
demic, while Mr. Biden and his
team have nothing to wield but
“moral power and social power”
until Jan. 20.
“Without significant action,” he
said, “the idea that we have an-
other 100,000 deaths by Inaugura-
tion Day would be a conservative
estimate.”
Experts pointed to a number of
steps a yet-to-be-sworn-in Presi-
dent-elect Biden could take to help
control the pandemic. The options
range from making a behind-the-
scenes push for governors to issue

mask orders and for Congress to

supply more money for coronavi-

rus testing, all the way up to a na-

tional lockdown if cases are still

spiraling after Mr. Biden takes of-

fice.

Mr. Biden has said he wants to

“shut down the virus, not the

country.” But as he also vows to do

“whatever it takes” to control the

pandemic, the millions of Ameri-

cans who turned out to vote in

record numbers last week remain

deeply split on how best to go

about it.

“I’m anticipating the next shut-

down,” said Voizene Stewart, 53,

of Detroit, who said he voted for

Mr. Biden after losing both his

mother and his 34-year-old son to

the coronavirus. Though virus

cases in the county that includes

Detroit are below peak levels from

this spring, they have been rising

steadily, with nearly 500 infec-

tions a day reported on average

over the last week.

Even though he has gone

months without spending signifi-

cant time with his remaining chil-

dren and grandchildren, he said

he hopes that the president-elect

will once again restrict businesses

and urge people to stay home. “We

need to get back to that,” he said.

“They opened too early.” He noted

with concern that the grocery

store across the street from his

home, which used to be quiet, was

once again bustling with people;

many customers emerging from

the store on Sunday were wearing

masks.

Many other voters, including

those who viewed Mr. Trump as a

champion of the economy, remain

far from persuaded.

“We’ve already suffered almost

irreparable damage from closing

things down,” said Dennis Rohr, a

city commissioner in Mandan,

N.D., who said he voted for Mr.

Trump. Though case counts re-

main extremely high in Mandan

and across North Dakota, Mr.

Rohr, 77, feared that any type of

shutdown would bring a new, even

more dangerous slew of problems,

including job losses and loneli-

ness.

Nine months into the pandemic,

the country is fading from exhaus-

tion and impatience, but the virus

is spreading more than ever be-

fore.

Unlike in the spring, when the

virus devastated New York City

and other places on the East and

West Coasts, it is now spreading

nearly everywhere, with infec-

tions rising in 46 states.

In Pennsylvania, the state that

gave Mr. Biden the electoral votes

he needed to clinch the presiden-

cy, more people are testing pos-

itive for the coronavirus than at

any other time in the pandemic. In

Wisconsin, another pivotal state,

hospitalizations for the virus have

skyrocketed 500 percent in the

past two months.

Surges have hit communities of

all types, with remote counties

and urban centers alike seeing

major spikes. In rural Norton

County, Kan., which has lately had

one of the country’s highest infec-

tion rates, every resident of a local

nursing home has tested positive,

as have hundreds of people in

prison. In Cook County, Ill., which

includes Chicago, more than 4,

cases were announced on Satur-

day.

Though the country is conduct-

ing far more tests now than it was

in the spring, the soaring case

numbers now reflect accelerating

spread of the virus, not simply

wider testing.

Hospitalizations, which give a

clear picture of how many people

are seriously ill with the virus at

any given time, grew by 63 per-

cent over the past month, accord-

ing to data collected by the Covid

Tracking Project. More than

55,000 people are now hospital-

ized with the virus, approaching

earlier peaks of more than 59,

in April and July.

Treatment has vastly improved

since the height of the spring out-

break, when more than 2,200 peo-

ple were dying per day. Even so,

deaths, which tend to lag a few

weeks behind new infections, are

now trending upward. The coun-

try has averaged about 900 deaths

a day over the last week, com-

pared with about 700 a month ago.

Mr. Biden is in line to inherit one

of the most serious and compli-

cated national crises that any in-

coming president in more than

half a century has faced.

While other presidents have en-

tered office during an economic

slowdown, including President

Obama and Mr. Biden as vice

president in 2009, not since Harry

Truman in the final months of

World War II has a new president

faced a situation as “complex and

multiheaded” as the pandemic,

said Bruce J. Schulman, a political

historian at Boston University.

Mr. Biden has said controlling

the pandemic is the necessary

first step to bringing back jobs,

and has said that on his first day in

office, he would move rapidly to

appoint a “national supply chain

commander” and establish a

“pandemic testing board,” similar

to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s

wartime production panel.

On Sunday, Mr. Biden’s cam-

paign released a first glimpse of

his plan for the pandemic, includ-

ing a commitment to “listen to sci-

ence.” Public health experts of-

fered initial praise for his corona-

virus task force, which is expected

to include Dr. Vivek Murthy, a for-

mer surgeon general; Dr. David

Kessler, a former commissioner of

the Food and Drug Administra-

tion; and Dr. Marcella Nunez-

Smith, a Yale University profes-

sor.

But Mr. Biden has also prom-

ised to unify the country and gov-

ern as an “American president,”

and millions of Americans, includ-

ing many who supported Mr.

Trump, voted with priority on the

economy.

Kathleen Skeins, a travel agent

outside Detroit, used to be busy

planning all-inclusive trips

abroad for her clients. Now, she

said, she is among the many busi-

ness owners in America who are

“barely starting to get back on

their feet.”

“We’ve already had so many

people that have lost their dreams

in the first shutdown,” said Ms.

Skeins, 51, who said she cast her

first ballot in about 30 years last

week, and voted for Mr. Trump.

While she doesn’t take the virus

lightly, she said, she remains

firmly opposed to any restrictions

that could hurt her business.

“The virus is never going to go

away,” she said. “It’s just a part of

our lives.”

U.S. TRANSITION

Biden Team’s First Task:

‘Terrifying’ Surge in Cases

From Page A

A coronavirus testing site in Chicago. One in 441 Americans tested positive just in the last week.

TAYLOR GLASCOCK FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Hospitalizations have

doubled over two

months, and deaths

are climbing again.

The decision this week by the
Danish government to kill mil-
lions of mink because of coronavi-
rus concerns, effectively wiping
out a major national industry, has
put the spotlight on simmering
worries among scientists and con-
servationists about the vulnera-
bility of animals to the pandemic
virus, and what infections among
animals could mean for humans.
The most disturbing possibility
is that the virus could mutate in
animals and become more trans-
missible or more dangerous to hu-
mans. In Denmark, the virus has
shifted from humans to mink and
back to humans, and has mutated
in the process. Mink are the only
animals known to have passed the
coronavirus to humans, except for
the initial spillover event from an
unknown species. Other animals,
like cats and dogs, have been in-
fected by exposure to humans, but
there are no known cases of peo-
ple being infected by exposure to
their pets.
The versions of the virus that
have mutated in mink and spread
to humans are not more transmis-

sible or causing more severe ill-
ness in humans. But one of the
variants, found in 12 people so far,
was less responsive to antibodies
in lab tests. Danish health authori-
ties worried that the effectiveness
of vaccines in development might
be diminished for this variant, and
decided to take all possible meas-
ures to stop its spread. This in-
cluded killing all of the country’s
mink and effectively locking down
the northern part of the country,
where the mutated virus was
found. The United Kingdom has
banned travelers from Denmark
who are not U.K. citizens.
The World Health Organization
and scientists outside of Denmark
have said they have yet to see evi-
dence that this variant will have
any effect on vaccines. They have
not, however, criticized Den-
mark’s decision to cull its mink
population.
Mink are not the only animals
that can be infected with the co-
ronavirus. Dogs, cats, tigers, ham-
sters, monkeys, ferrets and genet-
ically engineered mice have also
been infected.

Dogs and cats, including tigers,

seem to suffer few ill effects. The

other animals, which are used in

laboratory experiments, have ex-

hibited varying responses.

Farmed mink, however, have died

in large numbers in Europe and in

the United States, perhaps partly

because of the crowded conditions

on those ranches, which could in-

crease the amount of exposure.

Public health experts worry,

however, that any species capable

of infection could become a reser-

voir that allowed the virus to re-

emerge at any time and infect peo-

ple. The virus would likely mutate

in other animal species, as it has

been shown to do in mink. Al-

though most mutations are likely

to be harmless, SARS-CoV-2 con-

ceivably could recombine with an-

other coronavirus and become

more dangerous. Conservation

experts also worry about the ef-

fect on animal species that are al-

ready in trouble.

One approach to studying sus-

ceptibility has been to look at the

genomes of animals and see

which ones have a genetic se-

quence that codes for a protein on

cells called an ACE2 receptor,

which allows the virus to latch on.

One team of researchers studied

the genomes of more than 400 ani-

mals. Another group did a similar

study of primates, which are often

infected with human respiratory

viruses.

“One of the premises for doing

this research was that we thought

that great apes would be very at

risk because of their close rela-

tionship to humans, genetically,”

said Amanda D. Melin, an anthro-

pologist at the University of Cal-

gary and an author of the primate

study.

But, she added, she and her col-

leagues also wanted to consider

“all of the other primates and their

potential risk.” In addition to in-

vestigating genomes, the team

also did computer modeling of the

interaction of the virus spike pro-

tein with different ACE2 recep-

tors.

The findings of both papers re-

inforced each other, revealing old

world monkeys and all apes to be

most at risk. Both papers were re-

leased as non-peer-reviewed

studies earlier this year.

Dr. Melin and her colleagues

have been talking to representa-

tives of wildlife sanctuaries and

zoos about the need for caution.

Many of these facilities have in-

creased restrictions for the inter-

actions between people and the

primates.

Zarin Machanda, of Tufts Uni-

versity, who studies chimpanzee

behavior at the Kibale Chim-

panzee Project in Uganda, said

that the preserve had increased

its safety precautions because of

the pandemic.

“We’re always cautious about

respiratory viruses,” she said, be-

cause such viruses are the leading

cause of death in the chimps at

Kibale. Even the human common

cold can be lethal.

Chimpanzees have suffered

from outbreaks of other coronavi-

ruses. Normally, humans at

Kibale maintain a minimum dis-

tance of two dozen feet from chim-

panzees; that has been increased

to 30 feet or more. Local workers

have been staying at the reserve,

rather than commuting back and

forth to their communities. And

the project has reduced the hours

for field studies. All these meas-

ures were directed by the Ugan-

dan government.

Tony Goldberg, a veterinarian

at the University of Wisconsin,

Madison, and the head of the

Kibale EcoHealth Project, said

that he has seen the devastation

wrought by respiratory diseases

among chimpanzees. A deadly

outbreak in 2013 at the reserve

turned out to be the result of hu-

man rhinovirus C, the most com-

mon cause of the common cold

worldwide. Until then, it had

never been seen in chimps.

“The last thing we need is for

SARS-CoV-2 to move into an ani-

mal reservoir from which it could

re-emerge,” Dr. Goldberg said.

Other researchers are studying

species from Beluga whales to

deer mice for signs of the corona-

virus. Kate Sawatzki, the animal

surveillance coordinator for a

testing project in pets and other

animals at the Cummings School

of Veterinary Medicine at Tufts

University, said: “To date, we

have tested 282 wildlife samples

from 22 species, primarily bats in

New England rehabilitation facili-

ties, and we are happy to report

that none have been positive.”

They have also tested 538 do-

mestic pets, including from house-

holds with people with Covid-19,

and none have shown signs of ac-

tive virus. However, Dr. Sawatzki

said, the lab also conducted blood

tests for antibodies, showing ex-

posure, and there they did find

antibodies, as is common in hu-

mans. The pets seemed to be get-

ting infected but not getting sick

or passing the virus on.

So far, the mink in Denmark are

the only known instance of the vi-

rus infecting an animal, mutating,

and transferring back to humans.

Emma Hodcroft of the University

of Basel, Switzerland, traces vari-

ous mutated versions of the co-

ronavirus as it has spread through

Europe and has reviewed scientif-

ic information released by Danish

health authorities. She said she

applauded the government’s deci-

sion to take swift action and cull

the mink: “Many countries have

hesitated and waited before act-

ing, and it can be incredibly detri-

mental in the face of SARS-CoV-2,

as we see.”

But she did not approve of the

way the information was released,

particularly in the government’s

Wednesday news briefing, which

warned of a dire threat to poten-

tial human vaccines but offered no

detail for the concern. “The com-

munication of the science could

have been much clearer and led to

less worry around the world,” Dr.

Hodcroft said.

TRANSMISSION

Animals Could Become

Reservoirs for the Virus

To Resurface at Any Time

By JAMES GORMAN

Veterinary and emergency management officials removed minks for culling at a farm in Gjol, Denmark, as part of a government order.

HENNING BAGGER/RITZAU SCANPIX, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS

In Denmark, the virus has jumped from humans to mink, left, and back to humans, and has mutated in the process. Kibale National

Park in Uganda, right, has increased its safety measures because respiratory viruses are the No. 1 cause of death for its chimpanzees.

MADS CLAUS RASMUSSEN/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK NATURE PICTURE LIBRARY/ALAMY

Scientific concern that

mutations may spread

to humans and be less

responsive to vaccines.