The New York Times - USA (2020-11-09)

A6 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2020

N

MEXICO CITY — China has offered
Jamaica loans and expertise to build
miles of new highways. Throughout the
Caribbean, it has donated security equip-
ment to military and police forces and
built a network of Chinese cultural cen-
ters. And it has dispatched large ship-
ments of test kits, masks and ventilators
to help governments respond to the pan-
demic.
The initiatives are part of a quiet but
assertive push by China in recent years
to expand its footprint and influence in
the region through government grants
and loans, investments by Chinese com-
panies, and diplomatic, cultural and se-
curity efforts.
But while governments in the region
have welcomed Beijing’s interest, the
Trump administration has viewed Chi-
na’s growing presence — and its poten-
tial to challenge Washington’s influence
in the region — with concern and suspi-
cion.
The Caribbean markets are generally
small, and most of the nations there lack
the sizable reserves of minerals and
other raw materials that often draw Chi-
nese attention. But the region has stra-
tegic importance as a hub for logistics,
banking and commerce, analyst say, and
could have great security value in a mili-
tary conflict because of its proximity to
the United States.
“There are a lot of reinforcing reasons
that go beyond balance sheets,” said
R. Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin
American studies at the U.S. Army War
College’s Strategic Studies Institute.
“China understands intuitively the stra-
tegic importance of that space.”
China’s efforts in the region are part of
its global strategy to forge deep eco-
nomic ties and strong diplomatic rela-
tionships around the world, in part
through the building of major infrastruc-
ture projects under its ambitious Belt
and Road Initiative.
A crucial motivation for China’s Carib-
bean strategy also is winning over the re-
maining nations that officially recognize
Taiwan instead of China, most of which
are in the Caribbean and Latin America,
said Richard L. Bernal, a professor at the
University of the West Indies in Jamaica
and former Jamaican ambassador to the
United States.
China considers Taiwan to be part of its
territory and has long sought to reduce
the number of countries that recognize it.
But recently Taiwan’s international stat-
ure has grown with its aggressive re-
sponse to the coronavirus pandemic.
“China’s objective is to gradually elimi-
nate the recognition of Taiwan,” Mr.
Bernal said.
China’s growing interest has come in
the form of much-needed help for Carib-
bean nations that have serious infra-
structure needs but whose status as mid-
dle-income countries complicates their
access to financing for development.
Low-interest loans by the Chinese gov-
ernment totaling more than $6 billion
over 15 years have financed major infra-
structure projects and other initiatives
throughout the Caribbean, according to
the Inter-American Dialogue, a research
organization based in Washington. The
total climbs by $62 billion with the addi-
tion of assistance to Venezuela, much of it
given in return for long-term oil supplies.
During the same period, Chinese firms
have invested in ports and maritime lo-
gistics, mining and oil concerns, the sug-
ar and timber industries, tourist resorts
and technology projects. Between 2002
and 2019, trade between China and the
Caribbean rose eightfold, said Mr. Ellis,
the professor at the U.S. Army War Col-
lege.
China’s global push for business and

allies has generated criticism, particu-

larly in the United States and Western

Europe, which have called the Belt and

Road Initiative predatory. In 2018, Sri

Lanka, unable to repay Chinese loans,

surrendered its major port to China.

But analysts who closely follow Chi-

nese activity in the Caribbean say that

while there is some concern about the

sustainability of some of the debt as-

sumed by regional governments, they

have seen no evidence of a debt trap as in

the case of the Sri Lankan port.

“The loans are not only economic busi-

ness but also a way of building good will,”

said Mr. Bernal, the professor at the Uni-

versity of the West Indies.

Jamaica, which has emerged as an an-

chor of Chinese activity in the Caribbean,

has received more Chinese government

loans than any other Caribbean island

nation, according to the Inter-American

Dialogue, which closely tracks Chinese

government financing in the region.

Over the past 15 years, Beijing has lent

Jamaica some $2.1 billion for building

roads, bridges, a convention center and

housing, according to the group. Grants

have financed a children’s hospital,

schools and an office building for the

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, among other

projects, according to the Planning Insti-

tute of Jamaica.

And direct investments from Chinese

firms in Jamaica poured more than $

billion into projects like bauxite mining

and sugar production, Chinese business

leaders said, according to local news re-

ports.

Last November, the Jamaican govern-

ment announced that it would stop nego-

tiating new loans from China as part of

its effort to reduce debt quickly, but

would continue to cooperate with the

Chinese on major infrastructure projects

through joint ventures and public-pri-

vate partnerships, among other arrange-

ments.

But Jamaican officials say outstanding

Chinese loans are not putting an extraor-

dinary burden on the country: They

amount to only about 4 percent of Jamai-

ca’s total loan portfolio and are scheduled

to be repaid within a decade.

China has also widened its influence in

the Caribbean through security coopera-

tion, including the donation of equipment

to military and police forces, and cultural

outreach programs, like the expansion of

its network of Confucius Institutes.

These institutes provide language in-

struction and cultural programming but

have been accused of disseminating Chi-

nese government propaganda.

The pandemic allowed China to

strengthen these relationships further

by donating or selling personal protec-

tive equipment, in what has come to be

called “mask diplomacy.” The Chinese

foreign minister, Wang Yi, pledged in

July that China would extend $1 billion in

loans for vaccines to Latin American and

Caribbean countries.

Even as it has increased its presence

in the region, China has avoided directly

challenging the United States in the Ca-

ribbean through rhetoric or military and

political initiatives, Mr. Ellis said.

Still, China’s rise in the Caribbean

pushed the Trump administration to

forcefully promote its own development

programs. These include “Growth in the

Americas,” an investment initiative be-

gun last year that many analysts viewed

as a direct response to China’s diplomat-

ic and trade efforts in the Caribbean and

Latin America.

And in October, a Trump administra-

tion delegation visited Suriname, Guy-

ana, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican

Republic to trumpet American private

sector investment.

The United States has also stepped up

warnings to allies in the region about the

risks of doing business with Beijing, un-

derscoring what it says are potential

hazards ranging from shoddy construc-

tion to predatory loans and espionage.

In recent weeks, the American ambas-

sador to Jamaica, Donald Tapia, has cau-

tioned that country against installing

fifth-generation mobile networks made

by Huawei and ZTE, two Chinese firms,

warning in a Twitter post that “Huawei

has a history of spying, stealing, and sup-

porting authoritarian regimes.”

Last November, Mr. Tapia, in an inter-

view with The Jamaica Gleaner, called

China “a dragon with two heads,” the

newspaper reported.

During a visit to Jamaica in January,

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it

was “tempting to accept easy money

from places like China.”

“But what good is it if it feeds corrup-

tion and undermines your rule of law?”

he asked. “What good are those invest-

ments if in fact they ruin your envi-

ronment and don’t create jobs for your

people?”

The Chinese Embassy in Kingston, in

a statement responding to Mr. Pompeo’s

remarks, said it had deepened its in-

volvement with Caribbean states “on the

basis of mutual respect, equality and mu-

tual benefit.” And it accused the United

States of picking fights.

“It seems that some U.S. politicians

cannot go anywhere without attacking

China, tarnishing China’s reputation,

starting fires and fanning the flames and

sowing discords,” the Chinese Embassy

said. “They can go on talking the talk if

they so wish, but we will continue walk-

ing the walk. The world will tell plainly

who is stirring up trouble and who is try-

ing to make a difference.”

The deepening competition between

the two superpowers has put Caribbean

nations in an awkward position, and they

do not want to be forced to pick sides,

said Pepe Zhang, an associate director at

the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht

Latin America Center.

“They want to be able to work with

both the United States and China in areas

that make sense,” he said. “And I think

that’s something that will be even more

true now that the region is going through

a very difficult economic recession.”

China Quietly Extends Reach in Caribbean, Unsettling Washington

U.S. Alerts Allies

In Region to Risks

By KIRK SEMPLE

Medical equipment from China was unloaded at Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in May to combat Covid-19. Such assistance has come to be called “mask diplomacy.”

PIERRE MICHEL JEAN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

Prime Minister Andrew Holness of Jamaica, right, meeting with China’s pre-

mier, Li Keqiang, in Beijing last year. Jamaica is an anchor of Chinese activity.

FLORENCE LO/REUTERS

CAIRO — Ethiopia’s prime minister
reshuffled his country’s security serv-
ices on Sunday, days after he ordered a
military offensive in the northern Tigray
region, edging the country toward a po-
tential all-out civil war.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replaced
the head of intelligence and the army
chief, and appointed a new federal police
commissioner. He also chose a new for-
eign minister.
The appointments were announced on
Facebook, and a spokeswoman for the
prime minister, Billene Seyoum, said
they were “aimed at enabling the gov-
ernment to carry out the rule of law en-
forcement efforts started by strength-
ening the country’s security and foreign
affairs.”
The moves put a multiethnic group of
Mr. Abiy’s closest allies in crucial posts,
observers said, strengthening his hand
as he doubles down on a conflict that
could endanger the country’s delicate
democratic transition and lead to a divi-
sive civil war.

“It’s a reshuffle aimed at better using

the human resources at the top to with-

stand the security challenges,” said

Yohannes Gedamu, a lecturer in political

science at Georgia Gwinnett College, in

Lawrenceville, Ga.

The shake-up comes five days after

Mr. Abiy launched a military operation in

the Tigray region after accusing its lead-

ers of orchestrating an attack on a mili-

tary base and attempting to steal artil-

lery and military equipment. In the fol-

lowing days, Ethiopian fighter jets

bombed targets in the restive region,

with health workers reporting intense

fighting, dozens of wounded and at least

six dead.

Mr. Abiy, who won the 2019 Nobel

Peace Prize for helping end a long war

with neighboring Eritrea, has accused

the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or

T.P.L.F., which governs the region, of un-

dermining the constitution and federal

laws.

The Tigray people make up 6 percent

of Ethiopia’s estimated 110 million popu-

lation. But for almost three decades, the

group wielded outsized clout nationally,

which withered away after anti-govern-

ment protests that propelled Mr. Abiy to

power.

The relationship between the regional

and federal government has been

strained since Mr. Abiy became prime

minister in 2018, but it hit a new low after

the Tigray region held parliamentary

elections in September, in defiance of the

Ethiopian government’s postponement

of the vote nationally because of the co-

ronavirus pandemic.

The decision to delay the voting had

been criticized by many opposition

groups, including the T.P.L.F., which said

Mr. Abiy was using the pandemic to ille-

gally extend his term in office.

In October, Ethiopia’s Parliament

voted to slash the Tigray region’s fund-

ing, escalating the hostility between the

two sides.

Mr. Abiy on Sunday doubled down on

the military operation, arguing that his

government was out to “defend and pro-

tect the constitutional order and uphold

the rule of law.” He also accused the

T.P.L.F. — without offering any evidence

— of sponsoring and training anti-gov-

ernment militias throughout the country,

including enlisting “underage recruits,”

to destabilize the Horn of Africa nation.

“Their objective was clearly to make

the country ungovernable by instigating

clashes along ethnic and religious lines

— to sow division and discord so that the

democratic transition will lose its mo-

mentum,” Mr. Abiy said in a video state-

ment.

The United Nations and other regional

bodies have urged the warring parties to

de-escalate the violence and find a

peaceful resolution.

But Mr. Abiy has not heeded that yet,

urging the international community on

Sunday “to understand the context and

the consistent transgressions by the

T.P.L.F. clique that have led the Federal

government to undertake this law en-

forcement operation.”

Diplomatic sources in Addis Ababa

also said they expect the conflict to esca-

late in coming days as the government

mobilized troops around the country and

moved them closer to the Tigray region.

Adanech Abiebie, the mayor of the

capital, Addis Ababa, confirmed in a se-

ries of tweets on Saturday that several

T.P.L.F. members who worked in her ad-

ministration had been arrested on what

she said was suspicion of planning to dis-

rupt the peace and engage in terrorist ac-

tivities.

In order to wrest control of the region,

Mr. Abiy’s government has blocked the

internet and telephone networks in

Tigray, declared a six-month state of

emergency and approved the formation

of a provisional regional administration.

A state of emergency task force has also

been established, with the power to im-

pose curfews, make arrests and limit

modes of transportation.

On Saturday, the United Nations Office

for the Coordination of Humanitarian Af-

fairs warned of the escalation of conflict

in Tigray, saying the blockage of air and

road access by the conflict was seriously

affecting humanitarian relief to hun-

dreds of thousands of people.

It also said close to nine million people

were at “high risk” of being affected by

the escalation in military operation,

which, it said, could potentially lead to

“lead to massive displacements within

and outside of Ethiopia.”

Sajjad Mohammad, the head of the

U.N.’s humanitarian office in Ethiopia,

said bread and fuel shortages were al-

ready emerging in the region.

“There are almost two million people

who receive some kind of humanitarian

aid in Tigray,” he said. “If supply lines

close, that number could grow even fur-

ther.”

Ethiopia’s Leader Reshuffles Top Security Officials on Fifth Day of Conflict

By ABDI LATIF DAHIR

and SIMON MARKS

Abdi Latif Dahir reported from Cairo and
Simon Marks from Addis Ababa, Ethi-
opia. Tiksa Negeri contributed reporting
from Gondar, Ethiopia.

A military offensive in the

northern Tigray region

could lead to civil war.