The Economist - USA (2020-11-13)

12 Leaders The EconomistNovember 14th 2020

1

I

n muchof theworld,andnowheremoresothanamong

America’sallies,JoeBiden’svictoryhascomeasa greatrelief.

Underhispresidencytherewillbenomorebullyingandthreats

toleavenato.AmericawillstoptreatingtheEuropeanUnionasa

“foe”ontrade,oritsownforcesstationedinSouthKoreaasa pro-

tectionracket.InplaceofDonaldTrump’swreckingball,MrBi-

denwillofferanoutstretchedhand,workingco-operativelyon

globalcrises,fromcoronavirustoclimatechange.UnderMr

Trump,America’sfavourabilityratingsinmanyalliedcountries

sanktonewlows.MrBidenpromisestomakeAmericaa beacon

again,achampionofloftyvaluesandadefenderofhuman

rights,leading(asheputit inhisacceptancespeech)“notonlyby

theexampleofourpowerbutbythepowerofourexample”.

Alliesare centraltoMrBiden’svision.He

rightlyseesthemasa multiplierofAmericanin-

fluence,turninga countrywitha quarterofglo-

balgdpintoa forcewithmorethandoublethat.

Heisalsoa multilateralistbyinstinct.Onhis

firstdayinofficehewillrejointheParisagree-

mentonclimatechange,whichAmericafor-

mallyleftonNovember4th.UnlikeMrTrump

hebelievesitisbettertoleadtheWorldHealth

Organisationthantoleaveit.Hewillreinvigoratearmscontrol,a

prioritybeingtoensurethatNewstart, thelastremainingnuc-

learpactwithRussia,isextendedbeyondFebruary5th.Hewould

liketorejointhenucleardealwithIranthatMrTrumpdumped,

if hecanpersuadetheIranianstogobackintocompliance.

Inevitably,America’sfriendshavea longlistofthingsthey

hopeitwilldoasitre-embracesgloballeadership(seeInterna-

tionalsection).Thedemandsstretchfromplacesandorganisa-

tionsMrTrumphasabused,suchastheunandallieslikeGer-

many,topartsoftheworldhehasignored,suchasmuchof

Africa.Yetitwillnotallbesmoothtravelling.Notallcountries

arenostalgicfora returntoObama-erapolicies,whenAmerica

“ledfrombehind”andblurreditsredlines.Severalcountrieson

nato’sfrontlinewithRussialikethewaydefenceshavebeen

beefedupunderMrTrump.AndAsianallieslikehowMrTrump

hasconfrontedChina,talkedofa “freeandopenIndo-Pacific”

andworkedonthe“Quad”withAustralia,IndiaandJapan.MrBi-

denneedstoprovethathewillnotturnsoft.

Hisprioritieswillbetoquellthevirusandimprovetheecon-

omy.Onbothcountshecancountonlittlesupport,andmuch

pushback,iftheSenateisunderRepublicancontrol,asislikely.

Suchtroublesathomehaveprobablyalsoexacerbatedthecoun-

try’sreluctancetotakeonmoreforeignburdens.Whocanbe

surethatworld-waryJacksonianswon’tcomegallopingbackin

2024,perhapsevenwithMrTrumpinthesaddle?

Soratherthanpiledemanduponneedydemand,America’s

alliesshouldgooutoftheirwaytoshowthat

they havelearnedtopulltheirweight.nato

partners,forexample,shouldnotrelaxdefence

spendingjustbecauseMrTrumpisnolonger

bullying them. Germany shouldpay heedto

FrencheffortstobuildEuropeandefencecapa-

city—thereisscopetodosowithoutundermin-

ingnato. Europeanscouldlenda biggerhandto

FranceintheSahel(seeEuropesection).InAsia

theQuadcouldkeepdeepeningnavalandotherco-operation.Ja-

panandSouthKoreashouldrestraintheirfeuding.Taiwanought

tomakea moreseriouscontributiontoitsowndefence.

AlliesshouldalsoworkwithAmericatorepairtheinterna-

tionalorder.TheycansupporteffortstoresistChineseorRus-

sianrule-bending.ManycountrieswillwanttojoinMrBiden’s

effortsatconcertedcarbon-cutting.

MrBidenwillfacea worldfullofproblems,buthewillalso

startwithstrengths.ThankstoMrTrump,hehassanctionson

adversariesincludingIranandVenezuelathathecanuseasbar-

gainingchips.Andamongfriends,hecanseektoconvertreliefat

renewedAmericanengagementintostrongerburden-sharing.

Hisallieswouldbewisetoanswerthatcallwithenthusiasm. 7

Great expectations

America’s allies need to show that they have learned to pull their weight

The world and Joe Biden

A

merica’s voters did not elect Joe Biden because they

thought he would be the best steward of the economy. The

economy may well define his presidency nonetheless. Mr Biden

will take office in January amid a crisis brought about by the pan-

demic, which is capable of causing immensely more economic

harm before vaccination is widespread. He will also inherit a

business landscape in the throes of a once-in-a-generation shift,

as technology becomes more embedded in everyday life and in

more industries—a shift that has been simultaneously hastened

and overshadowed by the disease. Whether Mr Biden succeeds or

fails depends on how he manages these twin sources of change.

The good news is that gdp has rebounded impressively from

its collapse in the spring. The unemployment rate has dropped

much faster than most forecasters expected, from 14.7% in April

to 6.9% in October. Were private-sector employment to keep

growing at the pace of September and October it would return to

its pre-pandemic level in less than a year. On most forecasts

America’s economy will shrink by less than any other big rich

country’s in 2020—the euro zone will take almost twice the hit,

for example. So far there is little sign of the economic scarring

that was feared at the onset of the crisis (see Finance section).

Unfortunately this rebound is threatened by the winter wave

The economy Biden inherits

The incoming administration faces two extraordinary economic challenges

America’s new president