The EconomistNovember 14th 2020 Asia 232 politicians in search of financial backing,
organised crime has flourished. Journal-
ists last year exposed a smuggling ring
which laundered at least $1bn of its pro-
ceeds abroad (gdp last year was $8bn).
America has labelled Kyrgyzstan a “major
money-laundering country”.
Mr Japarov insists he marks a break
with all that. He has ordered the arrest of
two alleged crime bosses whom the previ-
ous government left be: Raimbek Matrai-
mov, who has been accused of involvement
in the smuggling ring, and Kamchybek Kol-
bayev, whom America has labelled a “sig-
nificant foreign narcotics trafficker”. Mr
Kolbayev remains in detention, but Mr Ma-
traimov was allowed to return home after
promising to pay the state $24m in a vague
penalty for unspecified abuses. The opac-
ity and arbitrariness of this step (Mr Japa-
rov concedes it was a political decision, al-
though he denies links to Mr Matraimov)
have prompted some to question Mr Japa-
rov’s sincerity. Keneshbek Duyshebayev, a
former senior security official, dismisses
his attack on organised crime as a “show”.
By the same token, when Mr Japarov
speaks of the need for constitutional re-
forms to ensure strong, stable government,
some see a naked power grab. The present
constitution was intended to guard against
strongman rule. Its architect, Omurbek Te-
kebayev, an mp, says Mr Japarov’s propos-
als will set Kyrgyzstan’s politics back 30
years, to their state at the time of indepen-
dence from the Soviet Union in 1991. This
week journalists issued a statement ex-
pressing “extreme concern” about Mr Japa-
rov’s vilification of outlets that have criti-
cised him—“distorted information” is his
constant retort to uncomfortable ques-
tions—which presents a “risk to the free
press”. Last month a mob of his supporters
threatened to burn down the offices of an
obstreperous radio station and website.
Yet Mr Japarov is trying to present him-
self as a moderate, unifying force. Tilek
Toktogaziyev, the politician attacked by Mr
Japarov’s supporters, has been named min-
ister of agriculture. Mr Japarov has also
won over Omurbek Babanov, a liberal op-
position leader who ran for president in
- Mr Babanov says he won’t run in the
coming election and has endorsed Mr Japa-
rov instead. Mr Japarov promises not to
pursue the politics of revenge “because I’ve
been through that myself”. In early Novem-
ber he invited the only two former presi-
dents who are not in exile or in prison—
Sooronbay Jeyenbekov, whom Mr Japarov
has just elbowed out of office, and Roza
Otunbayeva, the elder stateswoman of Kyr-
gyz politics—to attend an event with him.
Mr Japarov is also toning down his jin-
goism. “I am not a nationalist,” he insists,
promising to rule for Kyrgyz and minor-
ities alike. He says he is not sure whether it
is worth nationalising the Kumtor mine
anymore,givenitsdwindlingreserves.He
hasurgedprotesterstoendtheirattackson
Chinesefirms.Localsmustunderstandthe
valueofsuchinvestments,hesays,and
keepthecountryopenforbusiness.
MrJaparovseemslikelytowintheelec-
tion,giventhereluctanceofpossiblerivals
torun.Hisflairforpopulismisevident:he
has ordered the removal of the fence
aroundtheWhiteHouse,toreducethedis-
tance between politicians and the gov-
erned. And whatever constitution the
countryendsupwith,heinsists,hecould
neverbecomea strongman,thankstothe
ultimate safeguard: the Kyrgyz people.
“Theycanputupwiththingsfora year,or
two,orthree,thenchaseout anypresi-
dent,”hesays.“Youcan’testablisha dicta-
torshipinourcountry.” 7T
he rowis already six months old and is
steadily intensifying. In May China im-
posed an 80% tariff on imports of Austra-
lian barley and restrictions on imports of
Australian beef. More recently shipments
of Australian lobsters have been subject to
delays. Aussie wine has been formally
threatened with higher tariffs. The Chinese
authorities are reportedly discouraging
firms from buying Australian coal, cotton
and timber. There are fears that more Aus-
tralian goods will soon feel the squeeze. On
November 9th Australia’s trade minister,
Simon Birmingham, said that rumours ofan outright, if unofficial, ban on seven big
exports did not appear to be correct.
China hoovers up a third of Australia’s
exports of goods. Belinda Allen of the Com-
monwealth Bank of Australia calculates
that 7% of the total have now been affected
by or threatened with restrictions. (China
is also a massive consumer of Australian
services such as education and tourism.)
In theory, China has distinct and unre-
lated reasons for each step it has taken. The
tariffs on wine and barley are supposedly
because those products are being exported
below cost. Concerns about hygiene have
been used to justify impediments to food
imports, and so on. The Australian govern-
ment assumes there is a bigger grievance at
work, though Mr Birmingham’s Chinese
counterpart won’t even speak to him,
much less explain.
The spat started shortly after Australia
led international calls for an inquiry into
the origins of covid-19. Australia has also
annoyed China by rejecting its claims in
the South China Sea, legislating to prevent
Chinese interference in Australian politics
and cosying up to the likes of America,
Japan and India—with which it is holding
joint naval exercises this month.
China could also be angling for specific
concessions. Its investigation into the
“dumping” of barley came after Australia
launched 33 anti-dumping probes of Chi-
nese goods between 2006 and 2018. The
two countries began talks on a trade deal in
2005 on the condition that Australia treat
China as a market economy, making
dumping claims harder to sustain—but
Australia never followed through.
Restrictions on agricultural products
may have another benefit for China, too.
The Chinese government has pledged to
buy $37bn of agricultural goods from
America as part of a recent trade deal, but is
badly behind schedule. Pushing Chinese
importers away from Australian suppliers
could help to get it back on track.
Whatever the explanation, the Austra-
lian government has been encouraging ex-
porters to find other buyers, and has been
pursuing trade deals that might help, in-
cluding the reportedly imminent Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership,
which involves other 14 countries, includ-
ing China. A recent poll by the Lowy Insti-
tute, a think-tank, found that 94% of Aus-
tralians supported government efforts to
reduce dependence on China.
Realistically, though, China is too big a
market for Australian exporters to replace
very quickly. For most of the affected pro-
ducts, China, in contrast, can easily find
other sellers. For some goods, such as coal,
it may want to succour its own producers.
Iron ore is the only big Australian export of
which China would struggle to find alter-
native suppliers (see chart)—and trade in
it, oddly enough, has not been curtailed. 7China is curbing imports of more and
more Australian goodsAustralia’s trade with ChinaDown under
and out
Uneven keel
Tradedependence, 2019Source: ITC Trade Map *Not yet implicated in trade tensionsWheatCoalBeefCopperCopper oreWineCottonWood chipsAnimal hairCrustaceansBarleyIron ore*7550250 100Australianexportsas%ofallChineseimportsChinese imports as % of all Australian exports