The Economist - USA (2020-11-13)

24 Asia The EconomistNovember 14th 2020

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A

s the stateof Bihar went to the polls at

the end of October, its 125m citizens

were contending with both the pandemic

and the associated economic slump.

Would they punish the Bharatiya Janata

Party (bjp) of the prime minister, Narendra

Modi? Exit polls suggested they might.

But when the results were released on

November 11th, they showed the bjpand its

local ally, the Janata Dal (United) (jdu),

winning roughly the same share of the vote

as their biggest challengers, a coalition of

the local Rashtriya Janata Dal (rjd), leftist

parties and Congress, a much enfeebled

party that nonetheless remains the only

nationwide rival to the bjp. In terms of

seats in the state assembly, the bjp’s alli-

ance actually won a narrow majority. And

within the alliance it was the bjpthat per-

formed best, winning most of the seats it

contested. The jdu, whose leader, Nitish

Kumar, has served three near-consecutive

terms as Bihar’s chief minister, floundered.

“The bjp has achieved exactly what it

wanted in Bihar, which is to have a govern-

ment but to cut Nitish Kumar down to size,”

says Pavan Varma, a former adviser to Mr

Kumar. To make things sweeter for the bjp,

Congress won only a meagre 19 of the 70

seats it fought. Better yet for Mr Modi, the

Election Commission declared his party

the winner in dozens of local by-elections

that were held simultaneously in 11 other

states. Most significantly it strengthened

its hold on the pivotal state of Madhya Pra-

desh, returning under its banner a clutch of

deputies whose defection from Congress

last year gave the bjpa narrow majority in

the state assembly.

Given that India’s economy has shrunk

perhaps by 10% since covid-19 hit and that

more than 128,000 people have died from

the disease, this was a stellar performance.

Six years into office and 18 months after

winning a landslide national election, Mr

Modi has not only kept his own sheen

bright but has also expanded his party’s in-

fluence. The serial humiliation of Con-

gress, now widely blamed for dragging

down the opposition’s “grand alliance” in

Bihar, will further shrink its bargaining

power in other states where it needs allies

to challenge the bjp. And by outshining his

own ally in Bihar, Mr Modi has again shown

the effectiveness of a tactic that has trans-

formed the bjpfrom a regional party to the

dominant political force across India. In

state after state it has gained power with

thehelpofa localpartner,onlytoeclipseit

graduallywiththehelpofitsvastlygreater

financial resources and the disciplined

ground troops provided by Hindu-

nationalistgroupsalliedtotheparty.

Tobefair,thebjp’s narrowvictoryinBi-

harowesasmuchtothefragmentingofits

opponentsina first-past-the-postsystem

astoitsownpotency.Congress’sally,the

rjd, a localpartyledbythe31-year-oldsci-

onofa politicaldynasty,won 75 seats,one

morethanthebjp. Witha slightlybroader

coalitionit mighthavecarriedtheday.

Fourmorestatesareduetoelectnewas-

sembliesinthefirsthalfofnextyear.Sever-

alofthecontestspromisetobebigandbru-

tal.ThebjphasvowedtoseizeWestBengal

inparticular.IfMrModihadbeguntowor-

rythathewaslosinghisfamoushawa, or

tailwind,hewillberestingeasiernow. 7

DELHI

Neither a pandemic nor a recession

can slow Narendra Modi’s juggernaut

State elections in India

Against daunting

odds

S

u pon chithad to contain her excite-

ment. It was November 8th, the day of

Myanmar’s second election since the end

of military rule in 2015. A poll observer, she

was duty-bound to be impartial. But she is

also an ardent supporter of Aung San Suu

Kyi, Myanmar’s de facto leader, and her

party, the National League for Democracy

(nld). She watched as voters queued and

ballots were counted in her neighbour-

hood in Yangon, the commercial capital.

The nld’s tally, scrawled on a blackboard,

soared past its opponents’. Exhausted but

jubilant, Ms Su Pon Chit went home to

write her report. Hundreds of nldsuppor-

ters, sharing her confidence, flocked to

party headquarters to celebrate.

The Union Election Commission,

which organised the poll, has not yet re-

leased all the results, but Monywa Aung

Shin, the nld’s spokesperson, says it has

won 399 of the 476 elected seats in the two

chambers of the legislature. That is enough

to form a government and name the presi-

dent, and nine more than the nldwon in

its big victory five years ago. Once again the

nldappears to have trounced its biggest

opponent, the army-backed Union Solidar-

ity and Development Party (usdp), and it

has beaten expectations in states domin-

ated by ethnic minorities.

The usdp, however, claims that the poll

was unfair. The election commission is an

easy target. It is appointed by the president,

an nldstalwart. It did not publish the final

number of registered voters until after vot-

ing started. It disqualified candidates well

into the campaign. Citing security worries,

it did not hold elections in several states,

disenfranchising 1.5m voters, mainly from

ethnic minorities. Yet on the day itself, the

Carter Centre, an ngothat monitored the

election, found “no major irregularities”.

Nevertheless, the scale of the nld’s vic-

tory is surprising. Its record in office has

been lacklustre. Economic growth has

been disappointing. Efforts to end the civil

wars simmering on the country’s periphery

are flagging. Discontent with the nldhas

been mounting, especially among ethnic

minorities.

After their poor performance in the pre-

vious election in 2015, many parties cham-

pioning ethnic minorities merged, in order

not to split the opposition vote. The num-

ber of covid-19 cases sharply increased in

YANGON

Aung San Suu Kyi’s party defies

expectations with a landslide victory

Myanmar’s election

Mother knows best

Voters’ enthusiasm for the NLD has not flagged