TheEconomistNovember 14th 2020 291P
artisanship haslong coloured Ameri-
can perceptions of covid-19. Even so, the
contrast between the top echelons of the
main parties was striking on November
9th, the day the country passed 10m record-
ed cases of the disease. On that day the
White House of outgoing President Donald
Trump was dealing with reports that it may
have hosted a second superspreading
event in the span of a month—this one for
an election-night party that may have sick-
ened Ben Carson, the housing secretary,
among others. The same day, President-
elect Joe Biden announced the members of
the coronavirus advisory board for his
transition, staffed by the sort of public-
health experts the president likes to mock.
While national attention was otherwise
diverted, an extraordinary third surge in
covid-19 infections began in the weeks be-
fore the presidential election. There are
now 1,000 new deaths reported each day
along with 120,000 new infections. Even
though testing has been ramped up to near-
ly 1.5m per day, the test-positivity rate is ap-proaching 10%—suggesting that even now,
many infections are being missed. In all
but a handful of states, there seems to be
uncontrolled transmission, limiting the
efficacy of contact-tracing. Hospitalisa-
tions had been declining up until the end
of September, when they bottomed out un-
der 30,000. Now they have doubled to over
60,000—higher than the previous peak in
April. In North Dakota, the location of the
worst outbreak in the country, nearly every
intensive-care bed is occupied.
The argument that Mr Trump has han-
dled the epidemic uniquely terribly may
just have cost him the election. However,
this most recent surge is not an America
First phenomenon. It has roughly coincid-
ed with a second wave in Europe which,
measured both by deaths and by cases per
person, is even more severe. European
countries have reimposed harsh lockdown
measures, whereas the president and
America’s governors have been less draco-
nian. France’s intensive-care wards look al-
most as strained as those of North Dakota.But whereas President Emmanuel Macron
has declared a second national lockdown,
Governor Doug Burgum, a Republican, re-
cently declined to impose even a mask
mandate in his state.
Forecasting the course of the disease
has proved supremely difficult. It is there-
fore unclear how bad a situation a newly
inaugurated President Biden would inherit
on January 20th 2021. But current signs do
not augur well. Ashish Jha, dean of the
Brown University School of Public Health,
reckons that there may be 100,000 new
deaths between now and then. The Econo-
mist’s best estimate of total deaths in Amer-
ica, including those we think are missed by
official reporting, is nearly 300,000. After
nine long months of living with the virus,
Americans and their elected officials seem
tired of restrictions on movement and
businesses. With no new curbs, exponen-
tial growth could continue for weeks. Cold
weather may push more people to move
their gatherings indoors, where transmis-
sion is much more likely. Many Americans
will travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas;
no politicians will want to take the blame
for cancelling the holidays.
Federal action on the economy does not
seem imminent either. Democrats and Re-
publicans in Congress have been dead-
locked over a new economic stimulus
since many supports expired in July. The
stalemate has not yet been broken. Nancy
Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the HouseCovid-19 and the next presidentTransmission and the transition
WASHINGTON, DC
What the Biden administration would do differently, and how
much difference it would makeUnited States
30 Digestingtheelection
31 Firingsandhirings
32 FoxNewsandDonaldTrump
32 Rewildingtheprairie
33 Theurban-ruraldivide
34 Lexington: A Democratic defeat in
the midst of victoryAlso in this section