50 TheEconomistNovember 14th 2020
1O
n the morningafter the polls closed
last week, America withdrew from the
Paris agreement on climate change. The ef-
fects will be short-lived. President-elect
Joe Biden has promised to rejoin the pact as
soon as he enters the White House.
Donald Trump’s defeat has evoked
strong reactions around the world. The
main one “is relief”, says Andreas Nick, a
German mp. But the world will not return to
how it was in 2016, and Mr Biden will not
please everyone.
Consider climate change. Most coun-
tries are eager to welcome America back
into the club of those that care about it. In
the past eight weeks, China, Japan and
South Korea have vowed to reduce net
emissions to zero by mid-century or there-
abouts. Four of the five largest economies
have now committed themselves to emis-
sions cuts that are in line with limiting glo-
bal warming to 2°C above pre-industrial
levels or less (see chart 1 on next page).
Mr Biden has said he intends to adopt atarget of net-zero emissions by 2050,
which modellers say will shave 0.1°C off
their temperature projections for the end
of the century. To rejoin the Paris deal, he
will need formally to submit this goal
alongside an updated national pledge to
slash emissions. Most observers believe a
45-50% decrease from 2005 levels by 2030
would be tough but feasible, fair and com-
mensurate with what Europe is doing.
Mr Biden can re-enter the Paris deal
without congressional approval, but he
will need some degree of buy-in from both
sides of the aisle to make his pledges cred-
ible. Integrating green infrastructure, ener-
gy, and research and development into any
new government stimulus would help.
American public opinion is broadly favour-
able. In exit polls two-thirds of voters said
that climate change was a serious problem.
Whether they will accept higher energy
prices to fix it remains to be seen.
Outsiders are watching to see if Mr Bi-
den structures his team in a way that makesit clear that he wants to integrate climate
action across his foreign and domestic
policy. The importance of having America
back on the climate train is hard to over-
state. Over the past four years, voters
around the world have noticed not only
warmer temperatures, but increasing
numbers of floods, droughts and forest
fires. Europe is pushing through an ambi-
tious green deal at home and working
closely with China, the world’s largest
emitter. If Mr Biden can formalise Ameri-
ca’s emissions targets for 2030 and 2050
before the cop 26 unclimate summit next
year, that will help convince other govern-
ments that the country intends to pull its
weight. That should give others—includ-
ing China—the guts to decarbonise faster.
However, not all governments will wel-
come a carbon warrior in the White House.
Oil- and coal-producers are wary. So is Bra-
zil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, not least be-
cause Mr Biden has threatened “economic
consequences” if Brazil continues to tear
down the Amazon rainforest. Mr Bolso-
naro, who thinks foreign eco-scolds have
imperialist designs on Brazilian territory,
tweeted “OUR SOVEREIGNTY IS NON-NE-
GOTIABLE” and spoke vaguely of needing
“gunpowder” to defend it. Brazil’s carbon
emissions rose by a whopping 9.6% in
2019, mainly due to deforestation.
Another area where the world expects
more collaboration is health. Mr Trump an-American foreign policyWhat does the world want
from Joe Biden?
BEIRUT, BRUSSELS, PARIS, SÃO PAULO AND TOKYO
Predictability, and a sense that people all share the same planetInternational