52 International The EconomistNovember 14th 2020
2 na. It wants to be slightly firmer and less
credulous with China, but may not support
Mr Biden if he pursues confrontation.
Mr Biden will not undermine natoas
his predecessor did. And he will insist that
nato allies, two-thirds of whom fail to
spend 2% of gdpon defence, invest more in
their own armed forces. Germany hopes
that this message will no longer be accom-
panied by threats to slap tariffs on German
cars, and that disputes between allies will
be settled quietly, rather than over Twitter.
France hopes for a fresh American push
to resolve regional conflicts that affect
European security, from Turkish expan-
sionism in the eastern Mediterranean to
instability in Lebanon and Libya. Germany
and France will welcome a return of Ameri-
can civility and seriousness, and an end to
Mr Trump’s efforts to divide Europe.
Yet there is also a clear-eyed recognition
in European capitals that, even under Mr
Obama, Europe had begun to slip out of
American sight. “The Americans are obvi-
ously indispensable,” says a French presi-
dential source, “but the world has
changed.” France now wants Europe to do
more for itself, and differently. Emmanuel
Macron, France’s president, will need to
persuade the Biden team that his ambi-
tions to build up “strategic autonomy” in
Europe are not aimed at sidelining nato.Not your average Joe
Britain hopes to secure a trade deal with
America (to offset the damage done by
Brexit) and to punch above its weight glob-
ally via its “special relationship” with the
superpower. However, Mr Biden, who has
Irish ancestry, has hinted that Britain can
forget about a trade deal if it reimposes a
hard border between Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. He has described
Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, as
“the physical and emotional clone of Do-
nald Trump”, which is not meant as a com-
pliment. That Mr Johnson was the second
world leader to speak to Mr Biden after his
victory will allay some fears, but Britain
will probably lose its role as the bridge be-
tween the United States and Europe.
In the Middle East reviving the Iran nuc-
lear deal will not be easy. Most American
Republicans and some Democrats revile it.
Mr Biden may lift some sanctions and then
try to negotiate a follow-up agreement. Is-
rael and the Gulf states will want it to go
much further than the original 2015 ver-
sion—to impose limits on Iran’s ballistic-
missile programme and perhaps its sup-
port for militant groups. Iran is unlikely to
agree to such terms, though, in which case
America’s Middle Eastern partners will
urge Mr Biden to maintain the sanctions.
Mr Trump had a notable success in per-
suading Arab states to recognise Israel. Mr
Biden will be under pressure to continue
the thaw. Israel’s prime minister, BinyaminNetanyahu, was close to Mr Trump, and
will have to mend ties with Mr Biden. How-
ever, his country retains strong support in
America. The Palestinians hope to reverse
some of Mr Trump’s more antagonistic
moves, such as closing their diplomatic
mission in Washington and cutting aid.
They are unlikely to convince Mr Biden to
move America’s embassy in Jerusalem
back to Tel Aviv. Most countries want Mr Bi-
den to slow the drawdown of American
troops from Afghanistan, where fighting
between the government and the Taliban is
intensifying, and to keep a foothold in Iraq,
where Islamic State is active (see chart 3).
For the world’s populists and national-
ists Mr Trump’s presence in the White
House was evidence that theirs was the ide-
ology of the future. “The value Bolsonaro
derived from Trump was the narrative,”
says Oliver Stuenkel of the Fundação Getu-
lio Vargas, a university in São Paulo. Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s left-wing
populist president, has so far refused to
congratulate Mr Biden.
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s illiberal prime
minister, supported Mr Trump on theground that Mr Biden’s party stood for
“moral imperialism”. Poland’s rulers did so
for similar reasons. Janez Jansa, prime
minister of Melania Trump’s native Slove-
nia, insisted for days that Mr Trump had
won and retweeted fake news to that effect.Back to life, back to reality
These countries now face a president who
sees upholding the rule of law as a foreign-
policy priority. As vice-president, Mr Biden
repeatedly toured eastern Europe explain-
ing that America saw corruption as a tool of
Russian influence, and fighting it as crucial
to nato’s security. Daria Kaleniuk of antac,
an anti-graft group in Kyiv, hopes Mr Biden
will be “much stronger and more involved”.
Many autocratic leaders will miss Mr
Trump’s tendency to overlook their sins.
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Muhammad
bin Salman, will find his regular WhatsApp
chats with Jared Kushner less useful. Vladi-
mir Putin expects frostier relations. Hence,
perhaps, the histrionics of Dmitry Kiselev,
his propagandist-in-chief. “For a long time,
they have been trying to teach us [democra-
cy],” he said. “But now the teacher has
staged a debauchery, smashed the win-
dows and shit his pants.”
Many poor countries hope that Mr Bi-
den will notice them. Governments in Afri-
ca want support to deal with the economic
fallout of the pandemic. Central America
wants aid to curb violence and give people
an alternative to emigration. Developing
countries everywhere would like less blus-
ter about a new cold war with China and
more American trade and investment.
Human-rights groups would like a vo-
cal ally in the White House, or even a long-
winded one. “We will clearly see a more se-
rious voice on democracy and human
rights in Africa,” says Judd Devermont of
the Centre for Strategic and International
Studies, a think-tank. “The Trump admin-
istration’s absence was most deafening on
politics and governance.”
Finally, the world expects America to
welcome more foreign talent. Mr Biden
vows to repeal Mr Trump’s toughest immi-
gration curbs, stop building the wall, stop
putting children in cages and offer a path to
citizenship for people living in America il-
legally. Countries that send lots of emi-
grants, such as India, are pleased.
So are the migrants themselves. Arvin
Kakekhani, an Iranian researcher at the
University of Pennsylvania, designs cata-
lysts to turn water and carbon dioxide into
clean fuels. After Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban”
he felt “so insecure”, not knowing whether
he would be able to stay in the country, he
recalls. He has had to live apart from his
Iranian wife for two years. “My dream is to
use expertise to tackle the climate crisis,”
he says, adding that with Mr Biden’s vic-
tory, he is “now much more motivated to
stay” and do it in America. 7Bring the boys back home
United States, overseas active-duty troops*,’000Sources: DefenceManpower
Data Centre; TheEconomist *AtSeptember3300
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