Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-16)

◼ BUSINESS Bloomberg Businessweek November 16, 2020

Before You Pop That

Champagne...

● Pfizer’s positive results are

encouraging, but plenty of questions

remain about a Covid vaccine

produced positive results almost 11 months after

Covid’s emergence in China. An early analysis of

data from the trial of more than 40,000 volunteers

suggested the vaccine was more than 90% effective

in preventing the illness, the partners said. The likely

success of the first vaccine in a large, late-stage trial

raised hopes that others, like those being developed

by Moderna Inc. and the partnership of AstraZeneca

Plc and the University of Oxford, will also work.

While Pfizer’s announcement signals its vaccine

could be the first to gain an emergency go-ahead

from the U.S., others are only slightly behind in test-

ing. And since global demand for the vaccines will be

so high, shots from multiple companies will likely be

needed to immunize a large portion of the world’s

population quickly.

Moreover, the Pfizer vaccine has a notable prac-

tical limitation: It must be kept frozen at an ultralow

–94F until a few days before it is used. That requires

special freezers or dry ice packs, complicating dis-

tribution. Moderna is thought to be just a few weeks

behind Pfizer in the testing process. It’s working

with the same messenger RNA technology, which

uses the body to produce a key coronavirus

When Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE reported their

successful coronavirus vaccine trial results on

Nov. 9, the news sparked optimism around the globe

that there was finally light at the end of the long,

dark tunnel. Investors rushed to bid up stocks—not

just those of vaccine makers, but of a wide swath of

ordinary companies expected to benefit once the

pandemic moves into the rearview mirror. Yet there

are still many hurdles before vaccines get into wide-

spread use and Covid-19 is history.

Questions about production, distribution, and,

most important, the capability of the shot itself still

need to be answered. Pfizer’s late-stage trial started

less than four months ago, and how long the vaccine

will confer protection is unknown. “The key ques-

tion still centers upon time,” says Michael Kinch, a

drug development expert and associate vice chan-

cellor at Washington University in St. Louis. “Will

time tell us that the protection remains useful for

the larger population?”

In a remarkable scientific feat—achieved with-

out research, development, or manufacturing

funding from the U.S. vaccine accelerator known

as Operation Warp Speed—Pfizer and BioNTech

21

COURTESY GENERAL MOTORS. DATA: LMC AUTOMOTIVE

THEBOTTOMLINE Automakersareexpectedtosell 121 EV

modelsin theU.S.by2025.Butthecompaniessayfederaltax

subsidieswillbekeytojuicingconsumerdemand.

“Weneedtodothatata nationalandgloballevel.”

Teslahasfourmodelsforsalenowandplansto

bringouta Cybertruckanda two-seatroadsterin

thenextcoupleofyears.GMis planning 20 elec-

tricmodelsglobally,withatleasta thirdintended

forsaleintheU.S.Bytheendof2022,GMwill

havetheHummerpickupEV,CadillacLyriqcross-

overSUV,anda largerversionoftheChevyBolt.

Withsomanymodelscoming,GMhassaidit will

convertthreeU.S.assemblyplantstomakebattery-

powered models.

Ford and Volkswagen AG will be the next biggest

beneficiaries, Schuster says. Ford has its Mustang

Mach-E crossover SUV and an electric pickup truck

coming. VW has several models, and Mercedes-

Benz and BMW will also be in the game as they try

to steal luxury buyers back from Tesla.

The next big turning point will be adding to the

infrastructure.IndustrylobbyistspressedtheBiden

campaigntoincludecharginginitsclean-energy

plan. Biden’s push for 500,000 chargers would be

a hugeboost.ResearcherGuidehouseInsightshad

previouslyforecasttheU.S.wouldhaveonly66,000

ofthemby 2025 and144,000by2030.Mostpeople

charge at home, says PwC’s Singh, but more char-

gers on America’s highways will allay some pro-

spective buyers’ fear of getting stranded if they

buy an EV.

“I think the inflection point toward electric vehi-

cles is here, and there’s no turning back,” says Mike

Jackson, chairman of AutoNation Inc., the largest

U.S. car dealership. “The only issue is, what is the

rate of adoption?” �David Welch