Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-16)

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Bloomberg Businessweek November 16, 2020

Asthebalanceof

powershiftsfrom

WesttoEast,market

tostate,democracyto

authoritarianismand

populism—historyisn’t

over.It’sjustgetting

started

ByTomOrlikand

BjörnvanRoye

A Guide to the World

In 2050

WhoreallywontheColdWarbetweentheU.S.

andtheSovietUnion?MaybeChina.

In 1972, Cold War logic pushed President

RichardNixonintoanunlikelyalliancewithMao

Zedong—pavingthewayforChinatoreenterthe

globalcommunity.In 1991 thecollapseofthe

SovietUnionamplifiedtheWest’s“endofhis-

tory”hubris,blindingWashington,London,and

ParistothesignificanceofChina’srise.

Fast-forwardto2020,andChinahasemerged

asa majorglobalpower,itssingle-party state

and state-dominatedeconomythesubjectof

consternation in foreign capitals and pride

in Beijing. By 2035, based on Bloomberg

Economics’forecasts,Chinawillhaveovertaken

theU.S.,emergingastheworld’sbiggestecon-

omyandmostpotentgeopoliticalforce.

China’s riseisemblematicofa larger shift

that will accelerate in the decades ahead.

Using a growth accounting framework—

addingupcontributionsoflabor,capital,and

technology—BloombergEconomicshasfore-

cast grossdomesticproductoutto 2050 for

39 economies,fromtheadvancedU.S.tofron-

tierGhana.Usingthatdata,we’vechartedthe

futurepathofglobalGDPbasedongeographic,

political,andeconomicconfigurations.

Theresultsshowthata remarkableperiod

ofstability,stretching from the end of World

War II to the early years of the 21st century,

is coming to an end. The center of economic

gravity is shifting from West to East, from

advanced economies to emerging markets,

from free markets to state-controlled ones,

and from established democracies to author-

itarian and populist rulers. That transition is

upending global politics, economics, and mar-

kets. This is only the beginning.

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