Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-11-16)

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satellitedatanowallowstheCalFire

team’sowntoolsto parsetheland-

scapeintocellsof 30 squaremeters

and take into account everything

including vegetation growth (fuel

sources),topography(firesgouphill),

andpopulationdensity(highercon-

centrationsofpeopleandproperty

atrisk).They’llalsocrunchdetailed

winddatagoingbackalmost 20 years

tohelpthembetterpredictthebehav-

iorof“firekernels,”theembersthat

rise from one fireand then settle

down,startinga newone.Currentfire

mapsdon’teventrytopredictwhere

kernelswillgo—theyjustdrawa cir-

clearoundthefire’sepicenterwitha

kilometerwideradiusandsayevery-

thingwithinthereisatrisk.Butthat

isn’thowfireswork.Sapsissayswhen

thenewdatais added,theagencywill

beabletonarrowdownthecircletoa

slice,whichmightextend2 kilometers

ormorefromthepointoforigin.

Californiais onthevanguardoffire-

fightingandthereforeattheforefront

ofinsurers’panic,butotherstatesare

closebehind.Sapsissayshe’sgotten

callsfromseveralotherWesternstates

afterunprecedented firesthis year

consumedmorethan700,000acresin

Washingtonandmorethan1 million

acresinOregon.Riskanalyticscom-

panyVeriskAnalyticsInc.estimates

thatmorethan4.5millionU.S.proper-

tiesareathightoextremewildfirerisk,

butthisnumberisverylikelytorise,

andquickly,eveninplacesthatusedto

beessentiallyimmune.

Munich Re, the world’s biggest

reinsurer,hascollectedfiredatasince

the’70s.Inthe past,theamountof

insuredlosseswas“muchsmallerfrom

wildfirescomparedtotropicalcyclones.

Butit seemsthatit’schanging,”says

ErnstRauch,MunichRe’schiefclimate

andgeoscientist.

Craig Clements, director of the

FireWeatherResearchLaboratoryat

SanJoseStateUniversity,gavea talk

earlylastyear to 500 people inthe

reinsuranceindustryaboutfiresincan-

yonswithsteepwalls.Theseareknown

tostartatthebottombut,if windcondi-

tionsareright,suddenlyexplodeupthe

sides.Hispurpose,hesays,wastoget

morefundingforresearchonthephys-

icsofthephenomenon.Instead,hehad

severalrepresentativescomeuptohim

afterwardandtellhimtheyweregoing

toreevaluatetheirpoliciesincanyons.

There’sprecedentforthisdecision:

Bythe’60s,floodclaimshadbecome

sonumerousthatprivatecompanies

stoppedsellingpoliciescoveringthem.

In 1968 thefederalgovernmentstarted

its own flood insurance program,

whichtodayisbehind95%offlood

policiesintheU.S.A recentstudyby

thenonprofitFirstStreetFoundation

foundthatU.S.floodinsurancemaps—a

similarly constrained government

project—underestimatethenumberof

homesinthesevereriskzonebyabout

6 millionnationwide.

InCalifornia,nonrenewalsofhome

insurancepoliciesclimbed31%from

2018 to2019,withZIPcodesthathad

a “moderatetoveryhighfirerisk”see-

inga 61%uptick,accordingtoa recent

reportfromtheCaliforniaDepartment

ofInsurance.Thischangecausedmore

residentstoturntotheFAIRPlan,a Los

Angeles-basedassociationofinsurers

thatprovidesfireinsuranceasa “last

resort.”Thenumberofpoliciesissued

underFAIRclimbed36%lastyearand

morethandoubledinhigher-riskareas,

accordingtostateinsuranceregulators.

Insurersinsistthatunlessthey’re

abletoraisetheirratesinCalifornia

toaccountforfuturerisk,they’llstop

writingpolicies,thesamewaytheydid

forfloods.Butbroad-basedincreases

couldhavedevastatingconsequences

oftheirown.Mosthomeownersexpect

theirannualinsurancepremiumsto

riseslightlyovertimebutthebasiccost

toremainstable.“Peopleareusedto

paying,say,$1,600a yearofproperty

costforinsurance,”saysMichaelYoung,

vicepresidentformodelproductman-

agementatRiskManagementSolutions

Inc.,a catastrophe-riskanalyticscom-

pany.“Butifthatgoesupto$4,000

or$5,000peryear,thatmightnotbe

somethingthatthey’reinterestedinor

capableofdoing.”

Although Cal Fire’s mapswill go

a longwaytowardhelpingthestate

understandthegrowinghazardsthat

firespose,Sapsisacknowledgesthere’s

muchtheywon’tbeabletoanticipate.In

manycases,that’sbecausethescience

simplyisn’tsolidenoughtojustifythe

added burden on homeowners. To

takeoneexample,theydon’tconsider

housesaspossiblefuelforfires.Thisisn’t

becausehousesdon’tburn—theycer-

tainlydo—butbecausedatasetsonthe

differentmaterialsusedinhomebuilding

aren’treadilyavailable,andthustheir

differentburnratesaren’tquantifiable.

Themapsalsoaccountforonlysur-

facewindspeeds,butrecentresearch

hasshownthatemberscangetsucked

upintotheatmosphere,wherethey

canmove 10 timesasfastandgomuch

fartherthantheywouldatgroundlevel.

Afterthe colossal firesin Australia

duringthe2019-20 dry season,sci-

entistsrecordedembersbeinglofted

into the atmosphere and traveling

20 milesbeforedescendingandspark-

inganinferno.

Thisis oneoftheproblemsClements

studies.“Overandoverweareatfires

andlisteningonthe radios,andwe

hear,‘Ohno,thefirejustjumpedthe

line,it shouldn’thavedonethat,’” he

says.“Butfiresdoit allthetime,and

wejust underestimatethatbecause

we don’t take into consideration

atmosphericconditions.”

If nothingelse, 30 yearsofexperi-

encehavetaughtSapsishumility.No

model,nomatterhowsophisticated,

willbeabletoaccountforallpossible

environmental, circumstantial,and

freakfactors.

Whenhewasa forestrygraduatestu-

dentattheUniversityofCaliforniaat

Berkeleyin1991,Sapsisstoodinthehills

andwatchedas 70 mile-per-hourwinds

turnedOaklandintoa fireball,tearing

lit branchesfrom treesandhurling

thematshinglesonroofs,whichburst

intoflame.

Thelessonofthedisasterhasstayed

withhim.“Firepotentialis aboveand

beyondthehumancapacitytocontrol

undercertainconditions,”hesays.At

a certainpoint,“youcanpileonevery

resourceatputtingoutthefire—nothing

stops it.” <BW> �With Katherine Chiglinsky

Bloomberg Businessweek (^) THE NEW ECONOMY November 16, 2020