The Times - UK (2020-11-14)

14 2GM Saturday November 14 2020 | the times

News

Scientific advisers to the government
believe that the national lockdown
should end in three weeks.
The rise in coronavirus cases is
already flattening out, with the R rate
— which measures how many other
people the average person with the
virus infects — between 1.0 and 1.2,
meaning that the virus is spreading
slowly, if at all. Government experts
believe that in some areas of the coun-
try R is below one, meaning that the
epidemic is shrinking. In the northwest,
the official estimate is 0.9 to 1.1.
Members of the Scientific Advisory
Group for Emergencies (Sage) increas-
ingly believe that the Tier 3 regional
restrictions that had been imposed in
the northwest and elsewhere worked.
The Times understands that an official
survey found that the rules cut people’s
daily contacts by a third and were twice
as effective as previous local measures.
The evidence has boosted hopes that
an adjusted tier system after the
national lockdown could stop cases
rising again, although advisers believe
that Tier 1 restrictions, which allowed
people to meet indoors in groups of up
to six, were largely useless.
Boris Johnson has been adamant
that lockdown will end on December 2,
but advisers including Chris Whitty,
the chief medical officer for England,
have been more cautious until now.
Scientists used data from Comix, a
survey of the daily contacts of repre-
sentative samples of thousands of
people, to produce the clearest evi-
dence yet that the top tier of restrictions
had a significant impact.
“The tier system did have some im-
pact in reducing contact and especially
Tier 3 had a very significant impact,”
said John Edmunds of the London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medi-
cine, who led the study and sits on Sage.

Over the summer, people had an

average of just under five face-to-face

contacts a day, well below the pre-lock-

down level of ten or 12. “Tier 3 restric-

tions reduced that by 1.5 contacts a day,

which in the context of five daily con-

tacts is a big change,” Professor Ed-

munds said.

The “rule of six” reduced people’s

daily contacts only slightly and the

10pm pub curfew seemed to make no

difference to them at all.

Sage members expect cases to start

falling next week and believe that while

some areas will need to maintain the

toughest restrictions next month,

others can return to something like

Tier 2. This would mean pubs, restau-

rants, gyms and hairdressers reopen-

ing, but people only allowed to mix with

Sage backs lifting of

lockdown in weeks

after R rate success

other households outdoors. How far

cases fall during lockdown will be cru-

cial to hopes of families gathering at

Christmas, however.

A Sage document written two weeks

ago concluded that “greater mixing

would be possible if prevalence is low in

mid-December”. Scientists have not

specified a number to aim for.

Professor Edmunds said that as the

country emerges from lockdown, the

highest restrictions would “stop the

epidemic growing but won’t make it

shrink”.

Ministers are piloting mass testing in

Liverpool in the hope that rapid tests

for people without symptoms can be

used across the country to find more of

the half a million people thought to be

infected.

Professor Edmunds said that mass

testing and strict measures could cut

cases. “If you bring it down, Tier 3 is

sufficient to hold it at that lower level.”

The Office for National Statistics

yesterday reported signs of infections

levelling off, with 47,700 new cases per

day last week, similar to recent weeks.

Its infection survey estimated that

654,000 people in England had Covid-

19 in the week ending November 6, up

from 618,700 the week before and

568,100 the week before that. The small

rise, of 6 per cent, continues a slowing

trend first seen in last week’s release.

The survey tracks the outbreak by

repeatedly swabbing a representative

sample of households across the coun-

try. This means it does not rely on

people with symptoms coming for-

ward, making it more reliable when

looking for trends than daily govern-

ment case numbers. Similar trends in

the rate of increase were seen from

swabs taken in Wales, Northern Ireland

and Scotland.

World must prepare for next pandemic,

Weekend essay, pages 40-

The couple behind Biontech’s jab success,

Saturday interview, pages 44-

Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor
Kat Lay Health Editor

The national picture

*Counting of cases has changed to remove duplication. Numbers

now include those tested in all settings. 14-day change trends

use 7-day averages. Source: Gov.UK

Yesterday

14-day change

UK total*

England

Scotland

Wales

N Ireland

Cases Deaths

27,

11.8%

1,317,

1,128,

79,

63,

45,

376

37.2%

51,

45,

3,

2,

836

Mar Apr MayJunJulAugSep OctNov

10,

0

20,

30,000 cases

New

cases

7-day

average

People have been conned out of £1.4 bil-

lion since the start of the first lockdown

as fraudsters cash in, the police struggle

to cope and banks refuse to pay refunds.

A Times investigation has found that

investment scams and phoney texts,

emails and calls from people claiming

to represent Test & Trace, HM Reve-

nue and Customs or banks have risen.

TSB, which pays back all fraud

victims, has bought laptops for police

forces and software that helps down-

load and analyse the contents of a

fraudster’s phone if they are caught.

Victims say that they are treated

aggressively by some bank investiga-

tors trying to avoid refunding them.

All big banks have pledged to repay

innocent victims of “authorised push

payment fraud”, in which people

transfer money to what they think is a

trusted organisation.

Two banks pay out in just 4 per cent

of cases, according to data from the

Payment Systems Regulator.

Indukumar Patel, 87, a retired

pharmacist from Barnet, north

London, died after he was tricked out of

£130,000 by investment scammers. His

family say he lost the will to live after a

phone call with Lloyds Bank during

which they say he was told the loss was

his fault. The bank refunded £20,

but said that Mr Patel did not take steps

to verify it was a legitimate investment.

It sympathised with his family.

Hacking and extortion offences rose

from 132 in March to 1,058 in April,

according to Action Fraud. Fraud losses

nationally rose from £1.08 billion in the

six months before lockdown to £1.17 bil-

lion in the six months after lockdown.

Figures for April to October show that

the number of crimes reported rose

9 per cent year-on-year from 212,417 to

231,607. The total value lost fell by

10 per cent from £1.56 billion to £1.4 bil-

lion but the data includes a spike in

fraud losses registered after a Times in-

vestigation into Action Fraud, making

the data difficult to compare.

Banks won’t pay as

Kenza Bryan Money Reporter

Tom Calver Senior Data Journalist

E

laine Lomenzo, a retired

television executive, had

spent four months

isolating alone at home in

Kilburn, northwest

London, when she received a

phone call from a scammer

pretending to be ringing from

HSBC in July.

Ms Lomenzo, 71, was conned

into transferring £30,000 out of

her account over three days of

extended phone calls. The worst

part of the experience was her

phone calls with HSBC

investigators, she said. Banks do

not have to refund fraud victims if

they can prove they did not take

enough precautions to protect

themselves against fraud.

She was asked repeatedly why

she had believed the scammers

and said: “Every question was

designed to make you realise how

much of this is your fault, how

Case studies

The country that gave the world the
penknife may have come up with a tool
of even greater practical purpose.
Efforts to find solutions to stop the
spread of Covid-19 on surfaces have led
to offices being policed for germs like
never before, with workstations sub-
jected to frequent wipe downs. Getting
in and out of buildings has presented
a particular problem because many
people may have to open and close
doors using a single handle.
Now, however, a Swiss start-up has
created what it is calling the world’s first
smart self-disinfecting door handle,
which it believes can eradicate 99 per
cent of germs within three seconds.
The company, called Tweaq, says
that it has an inbuilt pump that brings
disinfectant from the door casing to a
sponge inside a ring around the handle.
Once the £400 battery-powered han-
dle is released by a user, sensors activate
an internal system that drives the alu-
minium ring backwards and forwards
along the surface, releasing an antibac-
terial solution. The handle connects to

an app, automatically sending data on

the number of times that the handle is

touched. This information is then used

to inform the company when to replace

a cartridge of antibacterial liquid.

After 1,000 uses the cartridge needs

to be replaced, for £39. The handle is set

to be released for sale next year.

Giovanni Barilla, chief executive of

Enter the germ-busting doorknob

Tweaq, said that his company had pro-

vided “an effective and reliable solution

that not only protects people but can

save businesses money in the long run”.

Hospitals, corporations and public

agencies have collectively spent

billions of pounds on “deep cleaning”.

For the hotel industry, the cost is esti-

mated at £7 billion. This has led to some

creative thinking among start-ups,

including UVD Robots, from Denmark,

which has developed disinfection robots

that use ultraviolet light to kill viruses

and bacteria.

The government’s advice to compa-

nies is that they should increase the fre-

quency of cleaning surfaces that are

touched frequently. However, research

has suggested it is unlikely that people

can catch coronavirus from surfaces

alone. Monica Gandhi, a professor of

medicine at the University of Califor-

nia, San Francisco, said evidence sug-

gests that the virus on most surfaces is

not strong enough to make people ill.

“It’s not through surfaces,” she told the

US science website Nautilus. “It’s from

being close to someone spewing the

virus from their nose and mouth.”

Tom Knowles Self-cleaning door handle

Pump sends

antibacterial liquid from

dispenser to sponge

when handle released

Disposable

sponge cleans

handle

Magnetic

ring slides

back and

forth

Battery powered

engine drives ring

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