Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-06-10)

E C O N O M I C S

ILLUSTRATION

BY

HELENA

COVELL

32

Edited by

Cristina Lindblad

Please,

Don’t Sing

surpassing the 1991-2001 growth cycle to become the

longest since 1854, which is as far back as economists

have attempted to date business cycles.

The achievement is impressive, but few are

in the mood to celebrate. It’s partly a matter of

timing. The risk of a downturn is rising, ampli-

fied by heightened trade tensions with China and

now Mexico. IHS Markit’s U.S. Manufacturing

Purchasing Managers’ Index fell in May to its low-

est level since September 2009. On June 3 the yield

on three-month Treasury bills exceeded that on

10-year Treasury notes by the most since 2007, a

strong indicator that a recession is somewhere

Bloomberg Businessweek June 10, 2019

● The current expansion

is 10 years old, but it looks

pale compared with previous

economic streaks

Tuneoutthetradewars.Paynoattentiontothe

signal of a looming recession being emitted by the

bondmarket.It’stimefora birthdayparty!

Thismonthmarksthe10thanniversaryofthe

U.S.economicexpansionthatbeganinJune2009.

If the streak continues into July, it will make history,