The New York Times - USA (2020-11-15)

This week will offer a gut check for some

of the season’s most exciting teams and

players. The Bills will follow their huge

win over Seattle with a tough test

against the Cardinals. The Dolphins will

try to keep their hot streak going

against the Chargers, and Joe Burrow

of the Bengals will get his first big

A.F.C. North test when he faces the

undefeated Steelers. Meanwhile, the

Rams, lying in wait, will have a chance

to steal a share of the N.F.C. West lead

in a matchup with the Seahawks.

Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 10, with

all picks made against the spread. And

while you wait for the action, get lost in

the possibilities of the next eight weeks

with the relaunch of The Upshot’s play-

off simulator.

Last week’s record: 6-8

Overall record: 64-66-3

Bills at Cardinals 4:05 p.m., CBS

Line: Cardinals -1 | Total: 56

It’s a little unusual to rave about the

defensive performance of a team that

gave up 34 points, but the Bills (7-2)

were up on Seattle by 27-10 in the third

quarter last week before

largely easing off on de-

fense and cruising to a

44-34 victory.

Regardless of the points

allowed, Buffalo sacked

Russell Wilson five times,

hit him another 11 times,

pulled down two intercep-

tions and recovered two

fumbles. Not bad, consid-

ering it was facing an

M.V.P. candidate who leads

the highest-scoring offense

in the N.F.L.

This week has nearly as

difficult a challenge. The

Cardinals (5-3) can do

considerable damage,

thanks to the running and passing of

quarterback Kyler Murray, and would

get an enormous boost if running back

Kenyan Drake could return from an

ankle injury.

With Buffalo’s Josh Allen coming off

perhaps the best game of his career, it

was no surprise for oddsmakers to

predict this would be the highest-scor-

ing game of the week. But if Buffalo’s

defense can perform near the standard

it established last week, the Bills can

walk away with a road win to be proud

of. PICK: BILLS +1

Seahawks at Rams 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Rams -1.5 | Total: Off

What a lovely bye week for the Rams

(5-3). They got some rest and watched

every other team in the N.F.C. West

lose. Now they host the Seahawks (6-2)

with a reasonable chance of getting a

share of the division lead.

Los Angeles has been more effective

running than passing, but Seattle’s

secondary is so bad it makes every

offense look terrific — and Jamal Ad-

ams, an All-Pro safety acquired by the

Seahawks in the off-season to stabilize

the team, has been a huge part of the

problem. There is every reason to be-

lieve the Rams have the advantage in

this game, but if Russell Wilson wants

to stay in the M.V.P. race, this is the

type of game he has to win.

PICK: SEAHAWKS +1.5

Chargers at Dolphins 4:05 p.m.,

CBS

Line: Dolphins -2.5 | Total: 48

The Dolphins (5-3) are the team people

thought the Chargers (2-6) might be

this season. It’s not that Los Angeles

has been particularly bad, but it’s hard

to be enthusiastic about two wins in

eight games. Miami, on the other hand,

had low expectations but has been an

absolute joy to watch on both sides of

the ball, and in its current 4-0 stretch, it

has had a combined score of 129-65.

Quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Tua

Tagovailoa were in the same draft class,

and appear on their way to starring in

the league for years to come. For now,

Tagovailoa’s team seems far better.

PICK: DOLPHINS -2.5

Bengals at Steelers 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 47.5

Despite being on the Covid-19 reserve

list because of a close contact, Ben

Roethlisberger is in line to play this

week, provided he doesn’t test positive

himself. Regardless, he won’t be able to

practice all week, which would be a

bigger deal if the Steelers (8-0) were

facing a defense more competent than

that of the Bengals (2-5-1).

If Roethlisberger is at all limited, the

Steelers can simply run their way to a

win with James Conner. And while

quarterback Joe Burrow has a bright

future for Cincinnati, he is very likely

not ready for Pittsburgh.

PICK: STEELERS -6.5

Buccaneers at Panthers 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Buccaneers -5 | Total: 50.5

The Buccaneers (6-3) are almost cer-

tainly not as bad as they looked against

New Orleans on Sunday night, but that

loss, coming on the heels of a narrow

win over the Giants the previous week,

has taken a great deal of the shine off

Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers have picked a poor

time to be struggling, as the Panthers

(3-6) are rounding into shape. While

running back Christian McCaffrey is

not expected to play on Sunday be-

cause of a shoulder injury, the team

adjusted in recent weeks to take advan-

tage of the versatility of Curtis Samuel,

who excels as a runner and receiver.

Pairing Samuel with wide receivers

Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore makes

the Panthers a team to fear, even for a

talented young defense like Tampa

Bay’s. PICK: PANTHERS +5

Ravens at Patriots 8:20 p.m., NBC

Line: Ravens -7 | Total: 43.5

Both teams are coming off wins, but

both wins might not sit all that well.

The Ravens (6-2) struggled on offense

for much of a victory over Indianapolis,

while the Patriots (3-5) needed a furi-

ous fourth-quarter comeback to beat

the winless Jets. There are degrees of

struggle, however, and while Baltimore

may have been exposed in recent

weeks as being a step or two below

Kansas City in the A.F.C.’s pecking

order, New England is only a few steps

above the worst teams in the N.F.L.

PICK: RAVENS -7

Broncos at Raiders 4:05 p.m., CBS

Line: Raiders -5 | Total: 51.5

In their last four games, the Raiders

(5-3) beat Kansas City, were blown out

by Tampa Bay, throttled Cleveland’s

high-powered offense and outgunned

the Chargers. Not a perfect stretch, but

enough to have Las Vegas in line for a

playoff spot if the season ended now.

The Broncos (3-5) can’t claim the same,

but they are at least making things

exciting, with 21 points in the fourth

quarter in each of the team’s last two

games.

To keep up with the Raiders, the

Broncos would need to find a way to

even out the team’s productivity.

PICK: RAIDERS -5

Texans at Browns 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Browns -3 | Total: 53.5

Nick Chubb, the star running back of

the Browns (5-3), is practicing this

week, and if he is able to go, that would

be terrible news for the Texans (2-6),

who have a comically inept run de-

fense. While Kareem Hunt has talent,

and is a great second option to Chubb,

Cleveland is far scarier when the of-

fense goes through Chubb.

Cleveland’s running game might

become quickly irrelevant, though, if

Deshaun Watson and the Texans can

get off to a fast start against a mediocre

secondary. Watson was able to carve up

Jacksonville’s defense last week with

long touchdowns to Brandin Cooks and

Will Fuller, and a few of those early in

the game could take away the Browns’

primary advantage. PICK: TEXANS +3

49ers at Saints 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Saints -9.5 | Total: 50

It appeared as if running back Raheem

Mostert had a chance to come off in-

jured reserve to play in this game, but

with the 49ers (4-5) collapsing under

the weight of a season lost to injuries, a

reasonable question became: Why

would he do that? A loss to the Saints

(6-2) in New Orleans seems all but

certain, so the decision to have Mostert

sit out this game, giving him a bonus

week off thanks to the team’s Week 11

bye, will have him at full strength for a

division game against Los Angeles in

Week 12.

After watching New Orleans throttle

the full-strength Buccaneers on Sunday

night, it’s hard to believe oddsmakers

didn’t make the point spread in this

game far wider. PICK: SAINTS -9.5

Jaguars at Packers 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Packers -12.5 | Total: 51.5

Remember last year when there was

concern that Coach Matt LaFleur’s

offense was relying too heavily on

running back Aaron Jones and that

quarterback Aaron Rodgers was being

minimized? Through eight games,

Rodgers is on a pace for 4,506 yards

passing, 48 touchdowns and just four

interceptions, and the Packers (6-2) are

averaging 31.6 points a game. This

week, Rodgers is facing the Jaguars

(1-7), who have the least efficient pass

defense in the N.F.L., according to

Football Outsiders.

How much damage can Rodgers do,

at home, against a team that inept? As

much as he wants. PICK: PACKERS -12.5

Washington Football Team

at Lions 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Lions -3.5 | Total: 46.5

All it took for Alex Smith to get back to

starting in the N.F.L. was 17 surgeries

on his right leg, the implosion of

Dwayne Haskins and a gruesome inju-

ry to Kyle Allen (though one far less

complicated than Smith’s). It was an

improbable path, but the 36-year-old

Smith has fought through adversity in

his career and won a lot more than he

has lost.

So where does that leave the Foot-

ballers (2-6)? Certainly no worse off

than they were a week ago, when they

lost to the lowly Giants, especially

when you consider that Washington

outscored New York once the switch

was made to Smith after Allen’s injury.

The Lions (3-5) are playing at home,

and unlike last week when he was on

the Covid-19 reserve list, Matthew

Stafford will be able to practice. But

Smith’s first start in nearly two years

might inspire an upset, or something

close to one. PICK: FOOTBALLERS +3.5

Eagles at Giants 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Eagles -3.5 | Total: 44

Games between N.F.C. East teams

should be entertaining because the

talent levels are similar. Instead, they

are often mistake-filled disappoint-

ments in which both teams find new

ways to fail. The Eagles (3-4-1) are

leading the division, mostly by default,

and the Giants (2-7) hardly seem likely

to challenge that unless the league

finds a way to add several more games

against Washington to their schedule.

But while the Eagles can and should

win, the team rarely covers the spread.

PICK: GIANTS +3.5

Vikings at Bears 8:15 p.m. Monday,

ESPN

Line: Vikings -2.5 | Total: 45

In Coach Mike Zimmer’s six seasons at

the helm of the Vikings (3-5), the team

has struggled to a 6-19 record in road

games against opponents with winning

records. That’s the situation Minnesota

finds itself in this week, though these

Bears (5-4) are far different from your

typical winning team.

It’s not that Chicago is inept. The

Bears are terrific at defending the run

and the pass, but the team’s quarter-

back, Nick Foles, is a wild card who can

look brilliant and ineffective — often in

the same series. That has led to Chi-

cago struggling so much to score that

the quality of the team’s defense is

often irrelevant.

So what will it look like when a Min-

nesota team that can score but can’t

defend faces a Chicago one that can

defend but can’t score? Probably a bit

of a mess. But the Vikings have the best

player on the field in running back

Dalvin Cook, they have played well in

five of their last six games, and the

Bears make it much too hard to believe

in them, even at home. PICK: VIKINGS -2.5

N.F.L. Week 10

By BENJAMIN HOFFMAN

How Weird Is 2020? The Bills’ Game Is a Big One

Wilson Shouldn’t Polish the M.V.P. Trophy Yet •A Rookie Duel in Miami •The Steelers Look to Go 9-0

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (83) celebrating a touchdown reception last week with Packers

quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has been proving his critics wrong this season.

EZRA SHAW/GETTY IMAGES

Jimmy Ward of the strug-

gling 49ers tackling the

Packers’ Tyler Ervin.

TONY AVELAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTSSUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2020 N 33

ONLINETo follow along with this week’s N.F.L. action, including scores, injury updates and highlights, go to: nytimes.com/sports

HOW BETTING

LINES WORK

A quick primer for

those who are not

familiar with

betting lines:

Favorites are

listed next to a

negative number

that represents

how many points

they must win by

to cover the

spread. Dolphins

-2.5, for example,

means that Miami

must beat Los

Angeles by at

least 3 points for

its backers to win

their bet.

Gamblers can

also bet on the

total score, or

whether the

teams’ combined

score in the game

is over or under a

preselected

number of points.

Bye weeks

Atlanta, Dallas,

Kansas City, Jets

All times are

Eastern.

Who Was Doubting Rodgers?

Through eight games,

Aaron Rodgers is on a

pace for 4,506 yards

passing, 48 touch-

downs and just four

interceptions. Here are

his career single-

season bests in those

categories:

Most Passing Yards

4,643

2011

4,442

2018

4,434

2009

4,428

2016

4,381

2014

Most Touchdowns

45

2011

40

2016

39

2012

38

2014

31

2015

Fewest Interceptions

(16 starts)

2

2018

4

2019

5

2014

SOURCE: PRO-FOOTBALL-REFERENCE.COM

Josh Allen led

the Bills to a

44-34 victory

over the Sea-

hawks last

weekend.

JEFFREY T. BARNES/ASSOCIATED PRESS

THURSDAY

Colts 34

Titans 17

After Sunday’s

disappointing loss

to Baltimore, the

Colts marched

into Tennessee

looking to prove

that their defense

could carry the

team to a crucial

win. Indianapolis

did just that,

grabbing a share

of the lead in the

A.F.C. South with

a 34-17 victory

over the Titans

that was

convincing on

both sides of the

ball.

We picked Colts

+2 believing that

a quiet stretch

from Titans

quarterback Ryan

Tannehill was

coming at an

awful time, which

proved accurate

as Tannehill was

limited to 147

yards passing and

one touchdown.

That wasn’t nearly

enough to keep

up with the Colts,

who ran for two

touchdowns,

passed for

another, and got a

fourth on a

blocked punt

return.