The Washington Post - USA (2020-11-22)

SUNDAY,NOVEMBER 22 , 2020 .THEWASHINGTONPOST EZ RE A25

SUNDAY Opinion

T

he firsttime Imet Barack

Obama,hestruckmeasdifferent

from anyother politicianIhad

ever met. He was smart, well-

read,affableandenergetic,butthatisn’t

whatmadehimstandout.Itwastheway

he asked questions. Most politicians ask

aquestiontoansweritthemselves.After

giving you abrief opportunitytore-

spond,theyjumpin,“Well,here’s whatI

think ...”and proceedto deliversome

packaged piece of wisdomtheyhave

doubtlessreciteddozens of times. But

Obamawouldaskaquestiontowhichhe

actually wantedananswer.Hewould

listen and ask anotherquestion. He

genuinelywantedtounderstand how

someoneelsemightviewanissue.

That unusual politiciancomes

throughclearly in his newbook, “A

PromisedLand.”Itiswell written, cer-

tainly the best-written presidential

memoirIhaveread. Obamahas an easy

and stylish waywithwords.Describing

walkingthroughthe West Colonnade of

the White House, he says, “it was where

each morningIfelt the firstslap of

winter wind or pulse of summerheat.”

Describingahelicopterride,hewrites,“I

gazed out at the rolling Maryland land-

scapeandthetidyneighborhoodsbelow,

and then the Potomac,glistening be-

neaththefadingsun.”

Themostnotable feature of the book,

however,isObama’sabilitytosee not

justbothsidesofeveryissuebutevento

empathize with the side in vigorous

oppositionto his own. He writes thathe

could understand HillaryClinton’s frus-

tration,afteralongclimbtopower,tobe

confrontinganupstartchallengerforthe

Democratic nomination. He under-

stands the motivations of Republican

leaderssuchasJohnBoehnerandMitch

McConnelland providesashorthistory

lesson:“Americanvoters rarely reward

the oppositionfor cooperating with the

governingparty.” He even has a“grudg-

ingrespect” forthe waythe tea party

gained passionate supportand wide-

spreadnewscoverage.

This qualityoffairmindednessis ad-

mirable in anyone, especiallyone who

has risen to the top of acutthroat

profession likepolitics. And it gave

Obamaconsiderable advantages in both

domestic and foreignpolicy. He could

see the world with different people’s

eyes, which broadenedhis horizonsand

made him abetternegotiator.But his

memoir does have one gap, alacuna in

his vision, both as president and as a

writer.Hedevoteslittletimeinthebook

to the central politicaldynamicin his

years in office —the rise of an enraged,

utterly obstructionist, Manichean oppo-

sition to his presidency, and himself

personally,thateventuallyculminatedin

theelectionofDonaldTrump.

Areminder: Barack Obamawas a

moderateDemocrat —“conservative in

temperament,”heacknowledges —and

governedas one. Forhis keyeconomic

advisers, he chose the mostcentrist,

market-friendly experts of the party,

Lawrence Summersand Timothy

Geithner.Hekept on GeorgeW.Bush’s

defense secretaryand offered another

keyCabinetjob, commercesecretary, to

RepublicanSen. Judd Gregg. He sent in

thousandsmore troops to Afghanistan

and expandeddrone warfare. And his

health-careplan was modeledon the

conservative HeritageFoundation’s old

proposal,one that also served as the

basis for Mitt Romney’sprogram when

hewasgovernorofMassachusetts.

Thisreignofmoderationandcompro-

mise, however,elicited areaction from

the RepublicanParty thatwas furious

and vengeful. Gregg, who initially ac-

cepted the job as commercesecretary,

had to back down in the face of activist

outragethathewas serving the enemy.

Obama recounts the case of Charlie

Crist, who as governor of Floridasup-

ported Obama’sstimulus,whichthe

statedesperately needed becauseits

economywasinfreefall.Histwo-second

handshakeand hug with Obamamade

himsotoxicwithintheRepublicanParty

thatby2010hehad to become an

independentandlateraDemocrat.

Despitemanycompromises, Obama

gotnot oneRepublican vote for his

stimulus or health-care bills in the

House of Representatives. And opposi-

tion to his policieswas often couchedin

blatantly racistways, such as posters

denouncingObamacarewithcaricatures

ofhimasanAfricanwitchdoctorwitha

bone stuck throughhis nose. Theman

who succeededhim in office, Trump,

rose to politicalprominencebycasting

doubt on whether Obamawas born in

theUnitedStates.

Obamatalks about these hysterical

reactionstohimintelligentlybutbriefly,

never offering deep analysisor passion-

ateanger.Headmits he wasn’t focused

ontheominousundercurrentsthatwere

growingin strength. “Myteam and I

were too busy,” he writes.But it might

also be thatitwould take him into deep

and dark waters thatare so different

from the hopeful, optimistic countryhe

so plainlywants to believe in. America

remainsforhimapromisedland.

[email protected]

FAREEDZAKARIA

What

Obama’s

memoir

leaves out

BYMADALINSAMMONS

P

residentTrump has lostreelec-

tion, and now Democratshavea

shot at taking back the Senate

withtworunoffelectionsinGeor-

gia. Asaborn and bred Southernerwith

more than afew Democratic campaigns

under my belt, Ihavesome advice for

out-of-staters eager to help the Demo-

craticcandidatesinGeorgia:Stayhome.

If there is anything the party should

have learnedin the pastfour years, it’s

thatwhenDemocratstrytonationalizea

competitive race, the effortoften back-

fires. It happenedearlierthismonth:

That’s whySusanCollinsisstillaRepub-

licansenatorfromMaineandwhyDem-

ocratsAmy McGrathinKentuckyand

Jaime Harrison in South Carolinawon’t

begoingtotheSenate.

In the 2018 midtermelections, when

recapturingthe House was Democrats’

top priority, Isaw firsthand how the

nationalize-the-campaign strategycan

fail. Iwas workingone of those races

deemed“red to blue”bythe Democratic

CongressionalCampaignCommittee.

ThenationalsupportforRichardOjeda’s

run was overwhelming.People from

California,Massachusetts,NewYorkand

morefilledoursmallRepublicandistrict

in West Virginia. Yetoncetheywent to

work, manyvoters regardedthem as

invadingstrangerswhohadnoideahow

totalktosomeonefromAppalachia.

TheDemocraticbluewaveofthe2018

midtermswasn’t as big as it could have

been, when several of the House races

thatpeoplewereexcitedabout,including

oursinWestVirginia,cameupshort.

NowI’m afraid Democratswillmake

the same mistakeinthe Georgia runoffs

on Jan. 5between RepublicanSen. Kelly

Loeffler and Democrat Raphael War-

nock,andRepublicanSen.DavidPerdue

and Democrat JonOssoff. Floodingthe

statewithwhatfeelslikeenthusiasmand

supportcould be aroadblockfor the

Democraticorganizersandfieldworkers

whohavededicatedthemselvesforyears

to this effort. Former Georgia congress-

woman and gubernatorial candidate

StaceyAbrams in particular has moved

mountainsto give these Democratsa

chanceofwinning.

Before an armyofnational celebrities

and Twitter warriorsswarm Georgia,

theyshouldkeepinmindthattheydon’t

knowthestate,thepeopleorthepolitical

dynamics.Everyone justwants to help,

but imagine a19-year-old Oregonian

spendingherChristmasbreakfromYale

Universityknockingondoorsandtrying

to tell someonein Atlantahow to vote.

Imagine having your phone ring every

night with people apparently calling

from Boston or Brooklyn explaining

what’sbestforGeorgia.

It’s counterproductive. And it could

spellthedifferencebetweenmoreWash-

ington gridlockand aCongressthatthe

Biden administration can work with to

putthenationonabetterpath.

Out-of-state Democratswho want to

help would do better to supportGeorgia

fromhome.DonatedirectlytotheOssoff

and Warnock campaignsto ensure they

have the resourcesneededto compete

withtheinevitabledelugeofRepublican

TVads.DonatetoFairFighttomakesure

organizersare supported. Donate to the

Democratic PartyofGeorgia as it gears

up for whatpromisesto be twoofthe

mostclosely watched Senate races in

recent memory. But awordofcaution:

Evenanavalancheofcampaignspending

canhavedrawbacksifalltheTVadvertis-

ing and mailedfliers and phone calls

starttoseem likeawretchedlyexcessive

outsideattempttobuyanelection.

Democratswere understandablyec-

static to see ablue Georgia on the

electoralmap,buttheywouldbewiseto

rememberthatalthoughmanyRepubli-

cans in Georgia casttheir presidential

vote for Democrat JoeBiden, theyalso

voted Republicandown-ballot—includ-

ingfor the Senate. Ablue Georgia was a

rebukeofTrump, not an embrace of

Democratic control.Democratsacross

the nation will want to push a“flip the

Senate”message, but theyshould letthe

Ossoffand Warnock campaignsrun on

the messagethatgot them this far—a

messageabout affordablehealth care, a

living wage, and protecting Social Secu-

rityandMedicare.

Don’t risktwo potentialSenate seats

forthesakeofagoodhashtag.Anddon’t

go to the Peach State unless organizers

ask for help. Youcan getaselfie with

StaceyAbramssomeothertime.

Thewriter, seniorcommunicationsadviser

at United Public Affairs, is the former

communicationsdirectorfor Andrew Yang’s

2020 presidentialcampaignand Richard

Ojeda’s2018WestVirginia congressional

run.

Democrats, please think twice before invading Georgia

weeksleadinguptothepresidentialelec-

tion. To complete 1,510interviews over

severalweeks,wehadtocall136,688vot-

ers.Inhard-to-interviewFlorida,only1in

90-oddvoterswouldspeakwithourinter-

viewers. Most calls to voters went unan-

sweredor rolled overtoansweringma-

chines or voicemail,never to be inter-

vieweddespitemultipleattempts.

Thefinal wave of polling,conducted

Oct. 25-27tocomplete500 interviews,

wasthe worstfor cooperation. We could

finishinterviewswithonlyfour-tenthsof

one percentfrom our pool of potential

respondents. As aresult, this supposed

“randomsamplesurvey”seeminglyyield-

ed, as did mostall Floridapolls, lower

supportfor PresidentTrump than he

earnedonElectionDay.

After the election, Inoted wide varia-

tionsincompletionratesacrossdifferent

categories of voters,but nearly all were

stilltoolowforanyactualrandomnessto

beassumedorimplied.

Manyvoterswhofitthe“LikelyTrump

Supporter”profilewerenotwillingtodo

an interview. It was especially hard to

interviewolder men. Similarly,wewere

less likely to complete interviews with

TrumphouseholdsinMiami’smediamar-

ket.Whateverthemotivation,thisbehav-

ior almostcertainly introduced bias into

pollresults,dampeningapparentsupport

forTrump.

Pollsters and poll readers can antici-

patelowandvariablecooperationratesto

persist,underminingrandomness.Inan-

ticipation of this,cooperation rates need

to be publishedwith all polls, to add a

dashofreal-worldsobrietytoourweigh-

ing of poll results.Presently,thisisvery

rarelydoneforpublicorprivatepolitical

polling.Ifyoudon’tbelieveme,askyour

pollster for his “disposition of sample”

reportand getreadyfor some cagey

equivocation.

Somesayonlinepollingwillhelp,andit

may. But mostonlinepolling uses non-

random samples from pre-recruited

“panels”of voters who have signed up to

be interviewed,typically for some incen-

tive.Andonlinesurveyshaveseriousdata

qualityorintegrityissues. Most voters

rush through them too rapidly for real

thought.Andwecannotverifythatonline

votersare indeedregistered to vote or

have the requisitevote historytheymay

claim.

One promising approachto making

online samplesmore verifiable and ran-

domisbytextinginterviewrequeststoa

genuinelyrandomsampleofthoseonthe

voter rolls. But standingpatonthe old

ways,ordenyingthenon-randomnessof

today’spolls, won’t makepolls great

again.

ThewriterisdirectorofHillResearch

Consultants and a2020fellow at the

University of SouthernCalifornia’sDornsife

Centerfor the PoliticalFuture.

BYDAVIDHILL

T

here’s adirty little secretthatwe

pollsters need to own up to: Peo-

pledon’ttalktousanymore,and

it’smakingpollinglessreliable.

WhenIfirstundertooktelephonepoll-

ingintheearly1980s,Icouldstartwitha

cluster of five demographicallysimilar

voters—say,Republicanmoms in their

40sinaMidwesternsuburb—andexpect

to complete at leastone interviewfrom

thatgroup of five. I’dbuild asample of

500 differentclusters of five votersper

cluster,or2,500 voters total. From that

number,Icould be reasonably assured

that500 peoplewould talk to us.The

500clustersweredesignedtorepresenta

diversecross-sectionoftheelectorate.

Astheyearsdriftedby,ittookmoreand

more voters per cluster for us to geta

single voter to agreetoaninterview.

Between 1984 and 1989, whencaller ID

was rolled out, more voters began to

ignoreourcalls.Theadventofanswering

machines and then voicemailfurtherre-

ducedresponses.Votersscreentheircalls

more aggressively,socooperation with

pollsters has steadily declined year by

year.Whereas once Icould extractone

complete interviewfromfive voters, it

cannowtakecallstoasmanyas100voters

tocompleteasingleinterview, evenmore

insomesegmentsoftheelectorate.

Andhere’sthekillerdetail:Thatsingle

cooperative soulwho speakswithan

interviewer cannotpossiblyholdthe

sameopinionsasthe99othervoterswho

refused.

In short, we no longer have trulyran-

dom samplesthatsupportclaims that

pollresultsaccuratelyrepresentopinions

oftheelectorate.

Instead, we have samples of “the will-

ing,” whatresearcherscalla“convenience

sample” of thoseconsenting to give us

their time and opinions.Despiteknowl-

edgeofthis, pollsters (including myself)

haveglossedoverthisrealitybydressing

upourresultswithclaimsofpollshaving

a“marginof error”ofthree or four per-

centage points when we knew, or should

haveknown,thattheerrorfactorisincal-

culable given the non-randomsample.

Mostpollstersturnedtoweightingresults

to“fix”variationsincooperation,butthis

can inadvertently amplifysampling er-

rorsduetononcooperation.

Forawhile,mostpollsconductedmost

ofthetimeinmostplacesseemedreason-

ably accurate, so we kept at it,claiming

randomsamplesurveyswithlowmargins

of error.Weighting becameaBand-Aid

for noncooperation. And polling still

seemed better than hoisting awetfinger

tothepoliticalwinds.Thencamethepast

twopresidential elections, exposing

deeperwounds.

IoffermyownexperiencefromFlorida

inthe2020electiontoillustratetheprob-

lem. Iconducted tracking polls in the

The dirty

little secret

pollsters need

to own up to

PHOTOBY SKODONNELL/GETTYIMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO

o

Votersscreentheircallsmore

aggressively,so cooperation

with pollstershas steadily

declinedyear by year.