7th Grade Math

Predictions

PART A B C

Multi-Part

Lesson 3

Get ConnectED

D E F

GLE 0706.5.5

Understand and apply basic

concepts of probability.

SPI 0706.5.4 Use theoretical

probability to make

predictions. Also addresses

GLE 0706.1.8.

Lesson 3B Predictions 463

Main Idea

Investigate experimental

probability by

conducting a simulation.

Simulations

A simulation is a way of modeling a problem situation. Simulations

often mimic events that would be difficult or impractical to perform. In

this lab, you will simulate purchasing a box of cereal and getting one of

four possible prizes inside.

Place four different colored

cubes into a paper bag.

Without looking, draw

a cube from the bag,

record its color, and then

place the cube back in the bag.

Repeat steps 1 and 2 until

you have drawn a cube from

the bag a total of four times.

the Results

1. Based on your results, what is the experimental probability of
   drawing each cube?


2. MAKE A PREDICTION Predict the probability of selecting all four
   cubes in four boxes of cereal.


3. Repeat the simulation above 20 times. Use this data to predict the
   probability of selecting all four cubes in four choices.


4. Calculate the probability you found in Exercise 3 using the
   combined data of five different groups. How does this probability
   compare with your prediction?


5. Describe a simulation that could be used to predict the probability
   of taking a five-question true/false test and getting all five
   questions correct by guessing. Choose from two-sided counters,
   number cubes, coins, or spinners for your model.


6. COLLECT THE DATA Conduct 50 trials of the experiment you
   described in Exercise 5. Then use your results to predict the
   number of tests out of 20 in which you would get all 5 questions
   correct. Use a proportion.

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