12 2GM Thursday November 26 2020 | the times
News
there was also half-term. Now we are
seeing a promising decline with rates
coming down in the past few days.”
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London,
said: “Having looked at the evidence
with public health and scientific experts,
London’s cross-party leaders are united:
our city going into Tier 2 next week
would seem the right decision.”
Despite big variations between
London’s boroughs, the government
wants to treat the city as one because
people travel across local authority
boundaries so much. Mr Hancock has
said that other areas such as Kent will
see different rules depending on local
patterns of transmission and travel.
Liverpool’s civic leaders are expect-
ing to be moved down to Tier 2 as a
result of a dramatic two-thirds decline
in cases, coupled with firmer controls
imposed by a mass testing pilot.
The move would be politically
appealing to the government to reward
the city for accepting tougher measures
when a bitter stand-off with Manches-
ter over Tier 3 soured relations between
Westminster and the regions. AndyBurnham, the mayor of Greater Man-
chester, said yesterday that it was
“more likely than not” that the city
would remain in Tier 3. This involves
the closure of hospitality businesses
and a ban on meeting other households
anywhere other than public spaces.
However, up to 20,000 pubs will shut
if two-thirds of the country is covered
by Tiers 2 and 3. In a letter to Mr John-
son, the British Beer and Pub Associa-
tion warns that premises “face ruin
with the end of the pandemic in sight”.
They say that “the focal point of... com-
munities in every region of the UK
could be lost for ever”.
A study by the University of East
Anglia found yesterday that only one of
the 169 areas subject to Tier 1 did not see
cases continue to increase. Paul
Hunter, who led the latest study, said;
“We show quite clearly that Tier 1
restrictions were inadequate. They had
little impact on transmission and
allowed exponential growth in the
large majority of authorities.”
Bored on the Boris bubble,
Janice Turner, page 30Charity leaders have said that a ban on
care home residents forming Christ-
mas bubbles is an “utter tragedy”, and
have issued pleas for rapid tests to allow
them to see relatives.
Guidance released this week on a
loosening of coronavirus restrictions
over Christmas recommends that older
adults living in care homes do not form
a festive “bubble” with relatives.
According to officials, it remains un-
clear whether this will be a legal ban.
Most people will be allowed to mix
freely with two other households
between December 23 and 27 in a “cau-
tious” relaxation of rules to let people
spend Christmas with their families.
Care home residents of working age,
such as those with learning disabilities,
will be allowed to form a bubble with
one other household for Christmas.
Guidance for England states:
“Spending time with others outside the
care home will increase risk of expo-
sure to coronavirus for the resident and
the other residents in their home on
their return, and is likely to place an ad-
ditional burden on the care home.
Given this, visits out of care homes
should only be considered for care
home residents of working age.”
The advice has left care home opera-
tors fearful of stand-offs if relatives in-
sist on taking residents home, while
managers fear they could be sued if
they let residents leave.
Fiona Carragher of the Alzheimer’s
Society said: “After nine harrowing
months, the announcement that many
care home residents will be facing the
holidays alone is an utter tragedy.
“We cannot emphasise enough the
importance of family carers. We’re
hearing from desperate families whose
isolated loved ones are slowly giving up
on life and losing vital skills. We have to
put a stop to people with dementia dy-
ing from loneliness.”
Pilots are under way for the use of
rapid tests to allow visits to care homes,
which Ms Carragher said needed to be
extended nationally as soon as possible.
Mike Padgham of the Independent
Care Group, an industry body, said:
“Care homes are at full stretch in the
midst of the second wave. If we are to
manage this new visiting regime, and
the vaccinations, we are going to need
some help, and some help right now.”
Christmas Covid rules, Letters, page 32Shoppers dash
Andrew Ellson
Consumer Affairs CorrespondentChristmas seems to come earlier every
year but this time the trend is being
driven by shoppers not retailers.
Sales of Christmas trees and decora-
tions are soaring as families embrace
the festive period as a signal that the
year of the pandemic is finally ending.
Christmas food is flying off
supermarket shelves and people are
buying and sending presents earlier
than ever. We are even listening to
record amounts of Christmas music,
according to Spotify, the streaming ser-On their marks Stores in ManchesterGraphic detail criticised
Ministers engaged in “numbers
theatre” in coronavirus briefings, an
expert said. Professor Sir David
Spiegelhalter, a statistician at
Cambridge University, told MPs on
the public administration committee
that a chart comparing death rates in
Europe was “one of the worst graphs
I’ve seen”. Another graph suggesting
Covid deaths could exceed 4,000 per
day was “completely inappropriate”.
He said “spurious data” was shown to
the public “as a justification for the
decisions that were being made”.coronavirus in brief
Holiday chancers fined
More than 40 people have been
fined for trying to leave the country
since the weekend, including many
who were going on holiday and had
already been stopped by police.
Assistant Chief Constable Claire Nix
of Kent police said: “Unless you have
to travel for work or have a
legitimate reason to be arriving at
the port of Dover or the Channel
Tunnel, our officers will turn you
away.” Fines start at £200. The
offenders came from as far as
Preston, a five-hour drive away.Abuse rose in lockdown
One in five offences recorded by
police during and immediately after
the first lockdown involved domestic
abuse, figures show. The Office for
National Statistics said the 259,
offences in England and Wales from
March to June represented a 7 per
cent increase on the same period in
2019, and 18 per cent increase on- Between April and June, the
helpline run by domestic abuse
charity Refuge was contacted 40,
times — up 65 per cent from the first
three months of the year.
Albert Hall cancels ballet
The Royal Albert Hall has cancelled
its Christmas performances of The
Nutcracker because it says they are
not financially viable with indoor
audiences limited to 1,000. The
production by the Birmingham Royal
Ballet was due to be staged from
December 30 to January 2. However,
the venue in west London, which has
a capacity of 5,272, wrote to members
yesterday saying: “We had been
investigating various options... but
the costs were just too great to make
this a viable option.”About 170 RAF personnel have been deployed to support health staff at a
temporary Covid-19 testing site set up at a leisure centre in Merthyr TydfilChris SmythNews Coronavirus
LEON NEAL/GETTY IMAGESLondon and Liverpool hope to
Bubble ban
for elderly in
care homes
‘is a tragedy’
Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor
Steven Swinford Deputy Political Editor
London and Liverpool are hoping to
escape the toughest Tier 3 coronavirus
restrictions but only a few rural areas
are expected to be placed in Tier 1 when
new rules are disclosed today.
With a study finding that Tier 1
restrictions failed in almost every area
subject to them, millions of people
across southern England are expected
to face a ban on indoor socialising when
national restrictions end next week.
Boris Johnson warned last night that
the new tiering system was going to be
“very tough”. He said: “We’ve got to
keep our foot on the throat of this
virus.”
Matt Hancock, the health secretary,
will today announce which areas are
subject to the three levels of restrictions
in a revamped tier system. Although
they have laid out the five criteria, he
will consider that ministers have discre-
tion about how they are weighted and
applied across council areas and deci-
sions had yet to be finalised last night.
Sources suggested “the vast major-
ity” of areas previously in Tier 1 would
probably be upgraded to Tier 2, in
which people cannot meet those from
other households indoors and, in a
strengthening of previous rules, pubs
will be shut unless serving meals.
Parts of eastern England and remote
areas in Cornwall and Cumbria are
expected to be among the few that
escape with Tier 1 restrictions, in which
the rule of six applies indoors and out.
“The approach is erring on the side of
caution,” one source said.
Officials said that areas put in Tier 3
today could be moved down on
December 16 when restrictions were
reviewed if data suggested that trends
were continuing in the right direction.
Mr Johnson told the 1922 committee
of back bench Tory MPs last night: “I
see us steadily making progress over
the next four months. They will really
erode the ability of the virus to do
damage to our population.”
He said: “By gradually finding more
and more people and testing them, and
vaccinating the vulnerable, it will make
a huge difference over the next few
months.”
There was increasing optimism that
London, which was in Tier 2 before the
lockdown, would remain there. Gov-
ernment figures show that Tier 2 was
working before lockdown and cases are
falling again overall and among the
over 60s. Hospital admission rates for
Covid-19 in the capital are also the low-
est in the country.
“If it was Tier 3 it would be a tough
case to make on the data,” one health
official in London said. “We are expect-
ing Tier 2 but we can’t quite call it.
“We saw a decline right at the start of
lockdown because Tier 2 was having an
effect. Then it went up we think
because people had a last hurrah and