A14 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2020 SS LATIMES.COM
to handle a surge in cases,
treatment for COVID-19 has
significantly improved, and
hospitals can cancel elective
surgeries to make more
room for critical patients.
But “that ability for hos-
pitals to be able to surge and
open up additional beds is
not endless,” Ghaly said.
Countywide COVID-
hospitalizations have al-
ready more than doubled in
just three weeks, from about
800 on Halloween to just
under 1,700 as of Tuesday.
“That really indicates
and speaks to the extremely
rapid spread of the virus, not
just among people who are
young and healthy and who
are asymptomatic, but peo-
ple who are getting sick and
... need to be in the hospital,”
Ghaly said.
Given that confirmed in-
fections have only continued
to go up — and that it usually
takes two to three weeks for
those who have tested pos-
itive to fall ill enough to re-
quire professional medical
care — it’s likely that num-
ber will continue to swell,
Ghaly said.
This isn’t the first time
county officials have warned
of the potential perils the
current coronavirus surge
presents to the healthcare
system. But the danger has
only grown along with the
case count.
Average daily infections
in the county have quadru-
pled and daily deaths have
tripled in a matter of weeks,
a rate of growth that’s led to
“the most alarming metrics
we’ve ever seen,” said Bar-
bara Ferrer, the county’s di-
rector of public health.
“The risk at this point is
that overwhelming the
healthcare system is now a
very real possibility,” she
told the L.A. County Board
of Supervisors on Tuesday.
In the last seven weeks,
the county’s number of new
daily coronavirus cases, av-
eraged over a seven-day pe-
riod, has swelled from fewer
than 1,000 to more than
4,000, a Times analysis has
found. In the summer, that
average topped out at 3,300.
The seven-day average of
daily deaths had tripled
since early November to 30
by Wednesday.
The skyrocketing hospi-
talization figures show two
things, Ghaly said: that the
virus is still widely circulat-
ing in the community and
that its spread is not limited
to those who can easily es-
cape its ravages.
Should the number of
COVID-19 patients continue
to rise, Ghaly said, “people
should be prepared to po-
tentially have their nones-
sential surgeries or pro-
cedures canceled so that
hospitals can make room,”
as that is “really the biggest
lever that hospitals and
health systems have to very,
very rapidly free up beds.”
Though hospitals have
plans in place to expand
their capacity if necessary,
Ghaly said the bigger chal-
lenge is staffing — particu-
larly in ICUs, where about a
quarter of all COVID-19 pa-
tients end up.
There’s already a natural
limitation on the number of
people who are properly
trained to provide ICU-level
care, she said, and with Cali-
fornia and much of the na-
tion also experiencing a
surge in cases, it will be far
more difficult to call for
staffing help if shortages
reach crisis levels in L.A.
County.
“I don’t want to minimize
the gravity of the situation or
the need for people really to
take very seriously their be-
havior and what they’re do-ing that might be contrib-
uting to the increased trans-
mission,” Ghaly said.
Within one to two weeks,
officials say, the number of
COVID-19 hospitalizations
in L.A. County could grow
30% more, to around 2,200.
That would equal the coun-
ty’s highest total in the pan-
demic.
The rate at which co-
ronavirus tests are coming
back positive in L.A. County
is now 6.6%, nearly double
what it was in late October
and triple the rate in San
Francisco.
“These very large in-
creases in cases and hospi-
talizations will, without a
doubt, lead to increased
numbers of people dying,”
Ferrer said.
Already, more than 7,
county residents have died
of COVID-19, more than dou-
ble the flu-related death toll
from the last cold-and-flu
season.
Hospitalizations are ex-
pected to continue soaring
in the coming weeks as newinfections are diagnosed.
State health officials
have estimated that roughly
12% of those who’ve tested
positive have ended up be-
ing hospitalized two to three
weeks later, so a sustained
and significant surge could
stretch hospitals to their
limits.
The state saw 16,681 new
cases on Tuesday alone, the
second-most in a single day
behind only Monday’s figure
of 20,654, according to an in-
dependent Times survey of
California counties.
The state’s last signifi-
cant coronavirus surge, after
Memorial Day, was followed
by a peak in daily deaths two
months later.
If that pattern holds, it’s
plausible that L.A. County
could face a peak in daily
COVID-19 deaths by Christ-
mas or later.
In light of the surge, the
county has advanced addi-
tional actions to control the
spread of disease. A new or-
der closing outdoor dining
areas at restaurants for atleast three weeks will go into
effect Wednesday night.
That move has not
been without controversy,
though, and two members of
the county Board of Super-
visors pushed unsuccess-
fully to repeal it Tuesday.
County officials are also
preparing a new health or-
der that is expected to ban
all gatherings, except for
outdoor church services and
outdoor protests, and re-
duce capacity at stores.
However, health officials
did not unveil any new re-
strictions during their brief-
ing Wednesday afternoon,
saying that potential addi-
tional measures are still be-
ing discussed with the
Board of Supervisors.
The state has also im-
posed new measures, most
notably an order prohibiting
most nonessential activity
outside the home from
10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in counties
such as Los Angeles that are
in the strictest, purple tier of
the state’s color-coded re-
opening road map.“Every day we wait to
make those changes means
that we’ll have another day
of high cases, another day of
pressure on our hospitals,
and this is something that
we all have agency and re-
sponsibility to change,” said
Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s
health and human services
secretary.
The problem now is that
with infections much higher
than ever, activities that
seemed safe a month ago are
now potentially far more
dangerous.
“In general, what we
know is, any time we get to-
gether with individuals
where your guard comes
down, your mask comes off,
you are closer than a few feet
apart, there’s a risk of trans-
mission,” Mark Ghaly said.
Because the virus can be
transmitted without the in-
fected person ever becoming
sick, he added, “most people
who have COVID may not
know it, you create a real risk
... as those activities in-
crease, we know that you’re
going to see transmission.”
To explain the current in-
crease in infections, officials
cite the arrival of colder
weather that keeps people
indoors, raising the risk of
transmission; increased
travel from hard-hit states;
gatherings to celebrate holi-
days or watch sporting
events; protests and cele-
brations related to the re-
cent election; an increase in
workplace outbreaks; and a
wrong belief that the danger
of the pandemic has passed.
Health officials are par-
ticularly nervous that
crowds could carry the virus
with them as they travel for
the Thanksgiving holiday,
much as similar holiday
travel in China for the Lunar
New Year fueled the onset of
the pandemic.
Federal, state and local
authorities have urged
people to stay home for
Thanksgiving and cancel
travel plans.
So far, California remains
in a better situation overall
than some other parts of
the country where hospitals
are already overwhelmed.
But officials say they worry
that that could easily
change.
Pandemic control mea-
sures have twice worked in
the past to dramatically
slow the spread of the dis-
ease — first in the spring,
when a sweeping stay-at-
home order was imposed,
and then again in the early
summer, when Gov. Gavin
Newsom ordered bars, in-
door restaurants and movie
theaters closed in the hard-
est-hit counties.L.A. at a perilous moment in pandemic
BILL LANCASTERof Oakley, Calif., feeds his pot-bellied pig at Dockweiler RV Park in Playa del Rey on
Wednesday. Many Californians have changed or scaled back their Thanksgiving plans as the virus surges.Mel MelconLos Angeles Times[COVID-19,from A1]
impact their education. It
severed their day-long con-
nection to food and shelter.
L.A. Unified recently has
ramped up efforts to reach
more students, offering vir-
tual healthcare and counsel-
ing and assigning staff to
track down absent kids.
“Quite a few of our stu-
dents hadn’t been logging
into school at all until they
came to our pod,” said
Emma Gerch, a coordinator
with School on Wheels, the
nonprofit that has provided
volunteer tutors. “If those
students are able to log on
and pay attention, that’s a
win.”
At the Hyland, they take
a page from more affluent
district parents, who have
pooled resources to hire
teachers or tutors and set up
well-equipped backyard
classrooms to accommo-
date the challenges of dis-
tance learning.
The effort is part of a city-
funded $770,000 pilot pro-
gram called Kids First,
dreamed up by City Council-
woman Nury Martinez and
launched in August to help
homeless families and chil-
dren secure healthcare, tu-
toring and permanent hous-
ing.
“Once COVID hit in
March, we knew the situa-
tion for these families just
got so much worse,” Mar-
tinez said.
Hungry students
Gerch is one of four in-
structors circulating around
the carport, helping kids log
on to their district-issued
Chromebooks and tablets
for 9 a.m. classes at several
different schools.
But they are hungry.
“Can I have a snack?” a
kindergarten boy seated at a
low table — because the
desks are too tall for him —
asks Gerch.
“We don’t have snacks
yet, but if you can sit and lis-
ten to your teacher for the
next 10 minutes, I can bring
you a snack,” she replies.
A moment later, a small
girl runs up to Gerch and
also asks for a snack.
“Give me 10 minutes,
OK?” Gerch says, smiling.
The pod pupils have
come to rely on the morning
snacks — on this day, grano-
la bars — and district-issued
bag lunches. The district has
established 60 “grab and go”
centers that provide two
meals each day to students
and families, but homeless
parents especially may not
have access to transporta-
tion to get to those centers,
Gerch said.
Some teachers have com-
plained to the School on
Wheels tutors, saying that
students are not allowed to
eat while they’re on camera.“That’s a challenge,”
Gerch said. “Our kids are
hungry. Sometimes we can’t
get them to sit unless we give
them food.” So now while
they eat, they turn off their
cameras.
The younger kids have
the hardest time focusing, so
tutors will usually sit with
them until the learning pod
is over at noon. The older
students who live in the mo-
tel tend to work independ-
ently in the adjacent court-
yard or in their rooms, and
come downstairs only to
grab lunch.
At the back of the class,
tutor Ian Chan is working
with an energetic, curly
haired kindergartner. The
teacher has asked the boy to
hold up his phonics work-
sheet to show his progress to
his online teacher, but he is
busy coloring — so Chan
gently redirects him to the
worksheet.“What comes after H?”
Chan asks. The kindergart-
ner draws a tiny “I” on the
paper, looking up at his tutor
for approval.
“Cool,” says Chan, who
runs the pod with Gerch.
School on Wheels keeps a
spreadsheet of all the stu-
dents: their teachers’
names, class schedules and
any specialized learning
services they are supposed
to receive. The nonprofit is
still trying to get the kids’
grades, which would give the
tutors a better idea of how
they are performing aca-
demically.
“Many of our kids are be-
hind in grade level because
of all the challenges of home-
lessness, and they’re falling
even further behind because
it’s so hard to stay engaged
in online learning,” Gerch
said.
The tutors have seen
some progress, though.When the school year began
in August, the youngest kids
could hardly sit still and
would run in circles around
the carport. Now they’ve es-
tablished a rhythm with the
tutor and know that they’re
expected to pay attention for
as long as they can. The
number of students who join
the pod is in constant flux.
Sometimes kids will be with
another parent, or they ar-
en’t feeling well.
Erica Richardson, a
mother sheltering in the mo-
tel with her two children,
said that the learning pod
has created a sense of stabil-
ity for her 9- and 12-year-old
boys.
Internet connection is
unreliable at the Hyland, she
said, and it’s sometimes out
for an entire day. She knows
that her sons will at least get
the help they need on Mon-
days and Tuesdays.
Richardson moved into
the motel over a year ago
after losing her job as a jani-
tor at a homeless shelter.
The pandemic and single
parenting have made it all
but impossible for her to find
work. She doesn’t want to
leave the boys alone at the
motel.
Her younger son was bul-
lied at school, so he was ini-
tially anxious about the pod.
But now he looks forward to
being around the other kids.
“Down here, he’s like every-
body else,” Richardson said.Serious needs
Because they meet with
students only twice a week,
the tutors try to make their
hours count, zeroing in on
the most pressing academic
needs. Like first responders,
they render educational aid
without knowing much
about a student’s past.
Earlier in the school year,
a tutor told Gerch that a sev-
enth-grader was havingtrouble reading. So the next
time he came to the pod, she
sat next to him while his
class was reading passages
from a history textbook.
“How does it feel to read
this?” Gerch asked. “Hard?
Easy?”
“I never learned how to
read,” he replied.
It was hard for Gerch to
fathom a student getting to
middle school without being
able to read. She asked an-
other tutor to read the pas-
sages to him so he could an-
swer the questions along
with his classmates.
Gerch brought the stu-
dent third-grade-level work-
sheets. Though he at first
seemed confident in his abil-
ity to complete them, even
those were too advanced.
Nikki Perez, project man-
ager with Kids First, walks
with an English language
learner around the edge of
the carport, its floor scat-
tered with food wrappers
and markers. She asks the 4-
year-old to name the colors
of the stars taped to the
walls.
“Este?” Perez asks,
pointing to a star.
“Blue!” the girl shouts.
“Este?” Perez says, point-
ing to another.
“Amarillo!” — Spanish for
“yellow” — says the girl,
jumping up and down.
The volunteers — a grad
student, a former elementa-
ry school teacher and a mas-
sage therapist among them
— help students gather their
things and sanitize their
hands before classes end
around lunchtime.
“It’s time to go!” one boy
yells. A girl grabs her pink
scooter from the courtyard
and shows it off to the other
kids. The students take their
time leaving, chatting with
each other and the tutors.
It’s just a short walk to their
motel rooms.Homeless students find help through city program
A MOTELcarport has been turned into a makeshift classroom. Above, Emma
Gerch, with the School on Wheels nonprofit, which sends volunteer tutors.Mel MelconLos Angeles Times[Students, from A1]