The New York Times - USA (2020-12-01)

THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONALTUESDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2020 N A

BRUSSELS — A high-level look
at NATO’s next 10 years recom-
mends significant changes to con-
front the new challenges of an ag-
gressive Russia and a rising
China, urging overhauls to fortify
the alliance’s cohesion and to bet-
ter coordinate with democratic al-
lies around the world.
NATO did well boosting mili-
tary deterrence after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine and annex-
ation of Crimea in 2014, the report
commissioned by the alliance
says. But with a similar challenge
to the West arising from an ambi-
tious and authoritarian China, it
says the alliance now needs to
make similar advances on the po-
litical side, including reaching out
more consistently to Asian allies
anxious about Beijing’s ambi-
tions.
Covering 138 specific recom-
mendations in some 60 pages, the
report will be a major source of
discussion on Tuesday, the start of
a two-day meeting of NATO for-
eign ministers that is likely to be
the last for Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo. The report is
scheduled to be released Tuesday
evening, but its contents were de-
scribed in advance to The New
York Times by several people fa-
miliar with them.
The report was requested by
the NATO secretary-general, Jens
Stoltenberg, after President Em-
manuel Macron of France said a
year ago that NATO was experi-
encing “brain death” because of a
lack of strategic coordination and
American leadership.
According to a diplomat from a
NATO country, the report is a kind
of riposte to Mr. Macron but also
an effort to respond to his legiti-
mate criticisms of an alliance that
has been slow to adapt its struc-
tures and its reach, and where de-
cision-making is a cumbersome
and often arduous process that
hinders quick reaction.
A co-chairman of the 10-mem-
ber group of experts, A. Wess
Mitchell, told NATO ambassadors
in a private briefing that the re-
port showed that “NATO is alive
and kicking both in its cerebral
function and its muscle tissue.’’
In an interview, Mr. Mitchell, a
former U.S. assistant secretary of
state for Europe, acknowledged
that the quotation was accurate.
He said that the report was aimed
at the future for an alliance whose
last formal strategic concept was
written a decade ago, when a dif-
ferent kind of relationship with
Russia was hoped for and in which
China was not even mentioned.
“Our intention is to be candid

about the challenges to NATO,

with a tone of well-grounded opti-

mism,’’ Mr. Mitchell said. The

main message, he said, is that

“NATO has to adapt itself for an

era of strategic rivalry with Rus-

sia and China, for the return of a

geopolitical competition that has a

military dimension but also a po-

litical one.’’

NATO, he added, is “first and

foremost an alliance of Euro-At-

lantic democracies, and must

evolve politically to match its mili-

tary evolution.’’

In this new world, internal divi-

sion is damaging, Mr. Mitchell

said. “That strategic competition

makes schisms inside potentially

more dangerous, because they

can be exploited. So it also puts an

emphasis on political cohesion.’’

To that end, the report does not

recommend the scrapping of

NATO’s principle of consensus,

but suggests ways to speed up de-

cisions. For example, numerous

NATO partnership decisions with

countries like Israel and even

Austria are being held up by one

country, in this case Turkey. The

report suggests that such dis-

putes be raised to the ministerial

level, not left with the anonymity

of ambassadors.

China is a significant part of the

report, and it recommends setting

up a consultative body to coordi-

nate Western policy toward Bei-

jing and to highlight Chinese ac-

tivities that could affect Western

security. Those include issues like

spying, supply chains, informa-

tion warfare and arms buildups.

With its technological ambi-

tions, military expansion and

trade policies, China can no longer

be seen as simply an Asian player,

the report argues, and NATO has

been slow to respond to the chal-

lenge.

The report urges the creation of

analytical centers better able to

study disruptive and emerging

technologies and to better use ar-

tificial intelligence, so the alliance

can enhance its security and de-

terrence against cyber and hybrid

warfare, beyond the traditional

battlefield.

It should also use those capaci-

ties to improve the fight against

terrorism and to better coordinate

policies that defend NATO’s

southern members, which are less

worried about Russia than about

Islamist terrorism and state-

sponsored wars, like in Libya, that

create uncontrolled migration.

The report is also blunt about

the problems of democratic adher-

ence inside the alliance, arguing

that with ideological rivals like

Russia and China, the political

health of the alliance matters

more.

It recommends creating a Cen-

ter of Excellence for Democratic

Resilience and recommitting all

members to the principles of the

NATO founding treaty, whose pro-

logue commits them to uphold

“the principles of democracy, indi-

vidual liberty and the rule of law.”

The report also urges closer co-

ordination with the European Un-

ion and its own military efforts

and ambitions. It recommends a

permanent staffing link and a

more explicit encouragement by

NATO of E.U. efforts toward a

more capable European defense,

so far as they strengthen the alli-

ance, contribute to fairer burden-

sharing and do not exclude non-E.

U. allies.

A senior diplomat from a NATO

country called the report compre-

hensive, a foundation from which

Mr. Stoltenberg can build recom-

mendations to political leaders

from the alliance for their next

summit meeting, expected early

next year. NATO is expected, as

the report urges, to approve the

preparation of a new strategic

concept to replace the one of 2010.

The European Union has al-

ready begun preparations to work

with a new Biden administration.

The European Commission and

the European Council are study-

ing proposals to work together

with the United States on issues

like health and pandemics, trade,

climate, data protection and an-

titrust enforcement and screening

of sensitive foreign investments,

aimed particularly at China.

For the NATO report, Mr.

Mitchell and his co-chairman,

Thomas de Maizière, a German

legislator and former defense

minister, were joined by other ex-

perts from various NATO coun-

tries, including Hubert Védrine, a

former French foreign minister;

Marta Dassu, a former Italian

deputy foreign minister; and

Tacan Ildem, a senior Turkish dip-

lomat who is NATO’s former as-

sistant secretary-general for pub-

lic diplomacy.

The group met virtually in

scores of sessions with politicians,

diplomats and experts and ap-

proved the report by consensus.

NATO Report: Prepare

For a Strategic Rivalry

With Russia and China

NATO headquarters in Brussels. A report says the alliance needs to streamline its decision-making process to counter future threats.

VIRGINIA MAYO/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, center, with the

Romanian president Klaus Iohannis, left, and President Trump.

AL DRAGO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A. Wess Mitchell is a co-chairman of the report. The alliance

“must evolve politically to match its military evolution,’’ he said.

ARMEND NIMANI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

By STEVEN ERLANGER

The Iranian defense minister
vowed on Monday to find and pun-
ish those responsible for the as-
sassination of Iran’s top nuclear
scientist, while another senior of-
ficial offered an account of the at-
tack radically different from initial
reports in the Iranian state news
media.
“We chase the criminals to the
end,” the defense minister, Brig.
Gen. Amir Hatami, said at a cere-
mony mourning Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh, who was shot and
killed outside Tehran on Friday
while traveling with his body-
guards.
Iranian state news outlets ini-
tially reported that gunmen had
killed Mr. Fakhrizadeh in a road-
side ambush after a truck explo-
sion — and even interviewed a
supposed witness. But speaking
at the funeral on Monday, Ali
Shamkhani, the secretary of the
country’s Supreme National Secu-
rity Council, said that Israel had
carried out the attack using so-
phisticated “electronic devices.”
He did not elaborate, but the
Fars news agency, an affiliate of
the Revolutionary Guards Corps,
said the assassination was carried
out with a machine gun operated
by remote control.
The new version of events,
which could not immediately be
confirmed, seemed to represent a
coordinated effort at damage con-
trol by the nation’s security appa-
ratus after a public and official
backlash after the embarrass-
ingly public assassination of Mr.
Fakhrizadeh, which Western in-
telligence officials have said was
carried out by Israel.
At the funeral at the headquar-
ters of the Defense Ministry, pho-
tographs and footage showed a
procession carrying Mr.
Fakhrizadeh’s coffin, covered
with flowers and draped with the
Iranian flag.
It was the latest of expression of
fury at the death of Mr.
Fakhrizadeh, who for two decades
was the brains behind what Amer-
ican and Israeli intelligence de-
scribed as Iran’s covert nuclear

weapons program, though Iran

maintains that its nuclear pro-

gram is for peaceful uses only.

But on Monday General Hatami

said that the death of the scientist,

whom he called a martyr, would

make him a model for Iranian

youth and only strengthen the na-

tion’s resolve to forge ahead with

his work.

Though he did not specify how,

General Hatami said the country

would take to heart the commands

of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s

supreme leader, to punish the per-

petrators and commanders be-

hind the killing. Tehran is assem-

bling an elite group to capture and

prosecute the perpetrators, Iran’s

judiciary chief, Ayatollah

Ebrahim Raisi, said on Monday.

Members include the attorney

general and select members of the

armed forces and intelligence

services.

“Once again, the evil hands of

global arrogance and the Zionist

mercenaries were stained with

the blood of an Iranian son,” the

Iranian president, Hassan

Rouhani, said on Saturday, echo-

ing phrases that Iranian officials

often use in reference to Israel. He

added that the country would re-

spond “in due course.”

After that threat, Israel on Sat-

urday put its embassies around

the world on high alert, Israeli N

News reported. The country’s

Foreign Ministry said it would not

comment on embassy security

matters.

The calls for retribution height-

ened concerns that the situation

could escalate. Over the weekend,

Germany urged all sides to refrain

from retaliatory actions in the last

weeks of the Trump administra-

tion to preserve hopes for re-

newed negotiations over Iran’s

nuclear program once Joseph R.

Biden Jr. assumes the presidency.

Under the 2015 nuclear accord

between Iran and six world pow-

ers — a signature foreign policy

milestone of the Obama adminis-

tration — Tehran accepted strict

restraints on its ability to produce

as much nuclear fuel as it wanted.

President Trump withdrew the

United States from the deal in 2018

and reimposed stringent sanc-

tions on Iran.

Mr. Biden is expected to try to

restore the accord, perhaps add-

ing limits on Iran’s production and

export of sophisticated weapons,

but the killing threatens to compli-

cate that effort. Iran’s reaction

over the next few weeks is likely to

determine whether it will suc-

ceed, analysts say.

Iran Says It Will Punish Scientist’s Killers

A billboard honoring the slain nuclear scientist Mohsen

Fakhrizadeh on Monday in the Iranian capital, Tehran.

ATTA KENARE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

The defense minister

says, ‘We chase the

criminals to the end.’

Farnaz Fassihi contributed report-
ing from New York.

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