30 The Americas The EconomistNovember 28th 2020
2Bello The future of bolsonarismo
T
his hasbeen a bad month for Brazil’s
populist president, Jair Bolsonaro.
First, Donald Trump, whose victory in
2016 served as a template for his own and
with whom he aligned his government,
lost his bid for a second term. And then
the candidates Mr Bolsonaro backed in
municipal elections on November 15th
nearly all fared poorly, while the big
winners were mainstream parties. Some
pundits are rushing to write his political
obituary. “The elections of 2018 were a
hiatus and those of 2020 have put things
back in their right place,” wrote Eliane
Cantanhêde, the political columnist of O
Estado de S. Paulo, a newspaper.
Brazilian liberals hope she is right,
and that Mr Trump’s defeat will be an
augury of Mr Bolsonaro’s fate at the next
election in 2022. A former army captain,
Mr Bolsonaro is scornful of democracy
and its checks and balances, has stuffed
his government with military men, says
offensive things about gay, feminist and
black Brazilians, favours gun ownership
and underplays both covid-19 and cli-
mate change. His election broke the
mould of Brazilian politics and was in
some ways an aberration. Even so, it
would be a mistake to write off his
chances of a second term.
In 2018 Mr Bolsonaro was the benefi-
ciary of an unusual moment in which the
country’s political class was widely seen
to have failed. His chief opponent, Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva, a once idolised
former president, was in jail, barred from
running by a conviction for bribe-taking
in the so-called Lava Jato (Car Wash)
scandal. Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party
was seen by many not just as corrupt and
self-serving but incompetent, having
driven the economy into what was then
its deepest recession in a century. But the
opprobrium extended to centrist poli-ticians, many of whom were caught up in
Lava Jato.
Mr Bolsonaro, who posed as an anti-
political outsider, tapped into conserva-
tive currents in Brazilian society, some
long present, some newer. He attracted
disproportionate support from men and
evangelical Protestants. But what tipped
the election to him was the popularity of
his talk about family values and law and
order in the poor peripheries of Brazil’s big
cities, the Workers’ Party’s former base,
argues a recent book by Jairo Nicolau, a
political scientist. His victory owed much
to the skilful use of social media in a way
that was novel in a Brazilian election.
As president, Mr Bolsonaro empowered
hard-right ideologues, pursued polar-
isation and all but self-destructed. Six
months ago, amid rising tension caused by
the pandemic, corruption allegations
against one of his sons and threats of
impeachment, he came close to ordering
the armed forces to shut down the Su-
preme Court. Some of his military advisers
talked him out of that. Mr Bolsonaro saved
his presidency by edging away from anti-politics and towards conservative poli-
tics as usual, allying with the centrão(big
centre), a clutch of conservative parties
of professional politicians who hold 221
of the 513 seats in Congress. An emergen-
cy stipend paid to 66m people has blunt-
ed criticism of his mishandling of the
pandemic. Brazil has had more than 6m
confirmed cases and 170,000 deaths. Mr
Bolsonaro’s approval rating has risen
from 30% to 40%.
His most likely path to a second term
involves cementing his alliance with the
centrão, which did well in the municipal
elections. His attempts to set up his own
political party, announced a year ago,
have yet to bear fruit. An alliance with
the centrãowould make him a much less
credible campaigner against corruption
and the political class. But it would offer
the kind of political machine that his-
torically helped to win Brazilian elec-
tions—useful since social media alone
are unlikely to give him such a compet-
itive edge twice. If the opposition re-
mains divided both between left and
centre and within those camps, that
would help him, too.
The big problem for Mr Bolsonaro is
the economy. The emergency stipend has
helped the country avoid a deeper reces-
sion. But how long can the government
sustain it? Public debt is heading for
100% of gdp. Even with interest rates
low, that is a big number for a country
with a history of default and inflation.
Economic recovery may be slow and
austerity looks unavoidable next year.
Income per person has already fallen
below its level of 2010. Many Brazilians
are suffering. Nationalist sound and fury
will not pay the bills. Mr Bolsonaro re-
mains today a competitive candidate. But
by 2022 Brazilians may be less receptive
to him than they were in 2018.Brazil’s weak economy stands between Jair Bolsonaro and a second termidiosyncrasy of his country, as Clarín, an
Argentine newspaper, noted: “Maradona is
the two mirrors, that in which it’s a plea-
sure to regard ourselves and that which
shames us.”
The son of a maid and a factory worker,
he grew up in a tin-and-cardboard shack in
Villa Fiorito, in the rustbelt suburbs of
Buenos Aires. As an adult he stood five feet,
five inches, but his stocky body and mus-
cular legs gave him explosive power. His
trademarks would be surging runs, the ball
glued to his feet, and instinctive vision.
His professional career began when hewas 15 at Argentinos Juniors, a historic but
modest club. Success there took him to
Boca Juniors and then to Barcelona and Na-
poli. But he found fame and fortune hard to
handle. He craved affection. Nightclubbing
in the company of freeloaders and gang-
sters led to cocaine addiction. There were
many women, some of whom he beat, and
enough children to form a football team.
The second half of Mr Maradona’s life
was tragically grotesque. Obese and often
in pain (referees were less protective in his
day), he made pathetic attempts at come-
backs. He failed as a manager, notably ofArgentina’s national team. Made rich by
capitalism, he saw no contradiction in
friendships with anti-capitalists Fidel Cas-
tro and Hugo Chávez.
Whether Mr Maradona was the greatest-
ever player, ahead of his compatriot, Leo
Messi, or Brazil’s Pelé, is a debate there is no
need to resolve. With his humble origins,
Guaraní blood and mop of dark curls, for
Argentines he was ever the pibe de oro, the
golden boy. “You made us immensely hap-
py,” said Alberto Fernández, Argentina’s
president, as he declared three days of na-
tional mourning. 7