40 Middle East & Africa The EconomistNovember 28th 2020
2 terrorist organisation. Such designations
are meant to cut off funding. But the
Houthis have few legitimate sources of rev-
enue to block, since most of their cash
comes from smuggling and extortion in Ye-
men. Their leaders tend not to buy condos
in Miami or invest in Wall Street.
If they would be no more than symbolic
for the Houthis, sanctions could have con-
sequences for other Yemenis. Some 80% of
the country’s 30m people rely on aid. Since
the Houthis control a large swathe of Ye-
men, aid agencies must deal with them to
distribute food and health care. Sanctions
would make this harder.
Mr Assad blames sanctions for the lack
of progress in rebuilding his shattered
country. It is a risible complaint: the main
obstacle to foreign investment in Syria is a
regime that bombs hospitals and gasses ci-
vilians. Still, sanctions undeniably have an
effect. To escape the vice, Mr Assad must
end attacks on civilians, release prisoners,
and hold officials accountable for war
crimes. Having won a battlefield victory
against rebel groups, though, he is unlikely
to agree—particularly to the last demand,
which would require him to put members
of his own regime in the dock.
Some diplomats argue that this is fine.
“You break it, you buy it,” says one, insist-
ing that the West should not help rebuild a
country Mr Assad chose to destroy. But this
means sanctions are strictly punitive: that
economic pain is an end rather than a
means. And Mr Trump has been selective
about whom he chooses to punish. He re-
fuses to impose legally mandated sanc-
tions on Turkey, for example, because of its
purchase of Russian missiles. Nor has he
penalised allies with ghastly human-rights
records, such as Egypt, which this month
detained three prominent activists.
The sanctions on Mr Bassil are instruc-
tive. Few Lebanese were upset about the de-
cision. Seen as haughty and entitled—his
father-in-law is the president—Mr Bassil
was a butt of popular anger during mass
protests last year. The American charge
sheet against him cites allegations of cor-ruptionfromhistimeasenergyminister.
(Hedeniesthem.)
YetheishardlytheonlyLebanesepoli-
ticianaccusedofgraft;lootingthestateisa
policyonwhichtheleadersofmostofLeb-
anon’sfactionsagree.TodateAmericahas
goneonlyafterofficialslinkedtoHizbul-
lah,theShiamilitia-cum-politicalparty.A
top official dismisses talk of imposing
sanctions on “our guys”. Dorothy Shea,
America’sambassadortoLebanon,saysMr
Bassilofferedto“breakwithHizbullah,on
certainconditions”.Thesubtextseemedto
bethatcorruptpoliticiansareonlyproble-
maticif theypickthewrongpartners.
DefendersofMrTrump’spolicyinsist
thatitsimplyneedsmoretimetowork,an
argumentthatisimpossibletodisprove.
MrTrumpleavesofficewithIran’sinflu-
enceundiminishedand itsnuclearpro-
grammeaccelerated.Sanctionscan bea
usefulforeign-policytool.Buttheycannot
betheonlyone.^7The pen-pusher’s might
US, new entities added to OFAC* sanctions listSource:GibsonDunn *OfficeofForeignAssetsControlBUSH OBAMA TRUMPAnnual
average1,5001,0005000
2001 05 10 1915I
sraeli ministerswere told at the last
moment that a cabinet meeting sched-
uled for November 22nd had been post-
poned. Not said was that the prime minis-
ter, Binyamin Netanyahu, was making his
way to the airport where he was met by the
chief of the Mossad spy agency, Yossi Co-
hen, who also functions as his plenipoten-
tiary to countries with which Israel does
not have official relations. As night fell
they flew due south, over the Red Sea, to
Saudi Arabia.
Sharp-eyed journalists noticed the un-
usual flight on an online flight-tracking
website and quickly put two and two to-
gether: Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary
of state, was also in the kingdom, meeting
Muhammad bin Salman, the powerful
crown prince, in Neom, a new high-tech
city that the prince is building. Unusually,
calls to Mr Netanyahu’s office to confirm
reports that all three men had met were not
rebuffed with denials. Equally surprising
was the lack of action by Israel’s military
censors, who in the past had quashed re-
ports of Israeli-Saudi co-operation. One of
Mr Netanyahu’s aides snidely tweeted that
unlike his defence minister and rival, Ben-
ny Gantz, “who is making politics”, Mr Net-
anyahu “is making peace”. Saudi officials
have also confirmed the meeting between
Mr Netanyahu and Prince Muhammad, re-
ports the Wall Street Journal.The two reportedly talked about Iran as
well as about establishing diplomatic ties.
Yet unlike the United Arab Emirates and
Bahrain, which recently “normalised” rela-
tions with Israel, Saudi Arabia is not ready
to open an embassy in the Jewish state.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz has long sup-
ported Palestinian demands for an inde-
pendent state in territories captured by Is-
rael in 1967 and the principles of the Arab
Peace Initiative of 2002. This policy, which
exhorts members of the Arab League not to
establish normal relations with Israel until
it withdraws from all occupied territories,
is unlikely to change while King Salman is
alive. As a sign of the tension within the
Saudi royal family over relations with Isra-
el, the Saudi foreign minister belatedly de-
nied that any such meeting had occurred.
And although neither side has offered
official confirmation, both seem happy
enough that the news has leaked out be-
cause of two key messages it sends. The
first is a warning to Iran: as it steps up its
nuclear activities, the regional alliance
against it is becoming bolder. In mid-No-
vember the International Atomic Energy
Agency said that Iran’s stockpile of low-en-
riched uranium was 12 times bigger than
the limit set by a nuclear accord it agreed to
in 2015 (and from which America withdrew
in 2018). Israel has in the past threatened to
bomb Iran’s nuclear sites if it comes close
to building a nuclear weapon.
The second message the meeting sends
is to America and the incoming adminis-
tration of Joe Biden. When Donald Trump
took over the presidency, much of his poli-
cy in the Middle East seemed focused on
unwinding the legacy of his predecessor,
Barack Obama, whose administration had
struck the nuclear accord with Iran and
several other powers. Mr Trump tore up the
deal and reimposed economic sanctions
that had been lifted under it. His adminis-
tration has also abandoned a long-stand-
ing American policy of acting as an impar-
tial peacemaker between Israel and the
Palestinians, saying it would recognise Is-
rael’s annexation of conquered territories.
The Trump administration has also de-
lighted Saudi Arabia with its tough stance
on Iran and its indulgence of Saudi human-
rights abuses, including the murder of Ja-
mal Khashoggi, an exiled journalist.
This may be about to change under Mr
Biden, who has called the Saudi regime a
“pariah” and threatened to halt arms sales.
He has also promised to restart diplomacy
with Iran and renegotiate the nuclear deal.
Israel and the Saudis seem to have put
the president-elect on notice that they in-
tend to pool their considerable diplomatic
and political capital in Washington to op-
pose major changes in America’s Middle
East policy. That is something of an
achievement for a meeting that, officially
at least, never took place. 7JERUSALEM
Israel and Saudi Arabia send a clear
signal to Iran—and Joe BidenIsrael and Saudi ArabiaThe not-so-secret
alliance