The EconomistNovember 28th 2020 Europe 47I
nertia is isaac newton’s first law of motion. “Every body per-
severes in its state of rest, or of uniform motion in a right line un-
less it is compelled to change that state by forces impressed there-
on,” wrote Newton in 1687. It is the first law of the eu, too: things
stay as they are, until a big enough force shoves them to change.
The covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession gave the bloc an
almighty push. Over the summer euleaders agreed to issue collec-
tive debt at scale for the first time, to the tune of €750bn ($890bn).
After five days of talks, all 27 heads of government agreed that any-
one spending eumoney would have to abide by some form of “rule
of law” stipulations.
Hungary and Poland are learning the hard way about introduct-
ory physics: once things get going, they are hard to stop. The two
countries have belatedly teamed up to try and scupper the scheme,
arguing that the rule-of-law mechanism goes too far. They have
reason to fear a crackdown. Both governments have trampled on
democratic norms in recent years, nobbling judges, thwarting
journalists and using the state to hobble rivals. There is little Hun-
gary and Poland can do to stop the new rules coming in, since they
can be approved by a qualified majority. Instead, they have vetoed
other policies. Both have refused to sign off the eu’s budget, which
is worth about €1trn of spending over seven years, and withheld
permission for the euto push on with disbursing the €750bn re-
covery fund, until the rule-of-law scheme is watered down.
Leverage is the stuff of politics as well as physics. At first glance,
holding €1.8trn of funding hostage seems a strong lever to pull.
Economies in southern Europe are gasping for the cash. But it is a
kamikaze attack. eufunds to Hungary and Poland were worth
4.5% and 3% of those countries’ gdprespectively in 2019. It is their
own economies they are most in danger of damaging for the sake
of a law they cannot stop from being introduced. Some are inter-
preting the move as a warning shot. If Hungary and Poland are
trampled over, a bureaucratic dirty war will commence, with both
countries blocking everything they can.
But Newton’s third law also has a role in eupolitics: every ac-
tion has an equal and opposite reaction. Other countries have ve-
toes over the budget process. Some like the Netherlands, which
has a reputation for being a stickler for rules, could block the pro-cessifanycompromise goes too far. The rule-of-law legislation is
narrowly defined. Some countries wanted a far more wide-ranging
tool, which would hit governments in their wallets if they tram-
pled on the rights of minorities or gay people.
A nuclear option being discussed in a stage whisper by dip-
lomats (and bellowed by meps) would involve other countries sim-
ply bypassing the two countries and issuing the debt without
them. This would banish Hungary and Poland to an outer circle of
the continent. Such strategies have been used before. David Cam-
eron, then the British prime minister, found himself outwitted in
2011 when he refused to sign off on a treaty change without regula-
tory guarantees for the City of London. His fellow leaders went
around him. Mr Cameron’s failure offers a lesson in how not to
deal with Brussels, which Warsaw and Budapest would do well to
heed if they want to guarantee their place in the bloc. Oddly
enough, voters in both countries are strongly Europhile, despite
electing governments that enjoy fighting euinstitutions.
Once the eu’s rule-of-law tool has come into force, inertia may
become the friend of Hungary and Poland, rather than their foe.
Any punishment for trampling on the rule of law would have to be
approved by a qualified majority of member states. On paper, this
improves on the current system. At the moment, a country can be
fined and/or stripped of its voting rights for violating the rule of
law only if all 26 other governments agree. Since Hungary and Po-
land have each other’s backs, such a move is impossible. In prac-
tice, the new measures may still struggle to be invoked. Hungary
and Poland are far from the only countries nervous about eubud-
get payments being linked to good behaviour. Corruption allega-
tions swirl in Bulgaria. High-profile murders of investigative jour-
nalists in Malta and Slovakia have shaken both countries in recent
years. Cyprus sells passports. Croatian authorities are accused of
beating up refugees at the border. It is not just a case of honour
among thieves. euleaders are reluctant to interfere in the domes-
tic affairs of others for the simple reason that they fear they could
be next. In such circumstances, abstention is appealing.
Unlike rules of physics, rules of politics can be bent. The danger
is that the new mechanism will become another Stability and
Growth Pact, the bloc’s oft-maligned but usually ignored rules on
government spending. According to the pact, eucountries are ex-
pected to keep their deficits below 3% of gdpin any given year and
their debts below 60% of gdp. Even in good times, these targets
were missed, but consequences were few. Technically countries
could be fined. None ever was. To critics, the rule-of-law mecha-
nism is a very European compromise: strict rules (to placate sup-
porters) which are never enforced (to placate opponents).Errors are not in the art but in the artificers
Procedures for reining in misbehaving member states will do little
if no one has the guts to use them. Fundamentally, dealing with
rogue eugovernments is a question of political courage. Big coun-
tries, such as Germany, have allowed political alliances to trump
principles. Over the past decade, the Hungarian prime minister,
Viktor Orban, has reshaped the Hungarian state from within the
comfort of the European People’s Party, in which Angela Merkel’s
Christian Democrats also sit. Belated action on Poland—a far more
important country for the future of Europe—came only after its
government had already stacked its constitutional court. The
bloc’s failure to act has had consequences. Other countries are
sliding in a similar direction and will not stop unless some force
impresses thereon. Inertia, after all, is a mighty thing. 7Charlemagne Newtonian Europe
Hungary and Poland discover that the laws of physics apply to eupolitics too