The New York Times - USA (2020-12-02)

THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONALWEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2020 N A

It was Mr. Putin, the Russian
president, who by all accounts
stopped the war that killed thou-
sands this fall in the fiercest fight-
ing the southern Caucasus has
seen this century. But he did so by
departing from the iron-fisted
playbook Russia has used in other
regional conflicts in the post-Sovi-
et period, when it intervened mili-
tarily in Georgia and Ukraine
while invading and annexing
Crimea.
Those tactics, which helped
turn those countries into implaca-
ble adversaries, seem to have fall-
en out of fashion in the Kremlin,
which analysts say is increasingly
applying a more subtle blend of
soft and hard power.
The Kremlin’s lighter touch has
been visible in the recent Belarus
uprising, where Russia refrained
from intervening directly and of-
fered only lukewarm support for
President Aleksandr G. Luka-
shenko, whose violence against
protesters was infuriating the
population.
In the negotiations to end the
recent war, Mr. Putin leaned on
the threat of Russia’s military
power, forcing concessions from
both sides in the conflict but gain-
ing a grudging measure of trust in
the rival camps. Russia has a mu-
tual-defense alliance with Arme-
nia, but Mr. Putin insisted it did
not apply to Nagorno-Karabakh.
He has maintained close personal
ties to President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan.
The strategy seems to have
paid immediate dividends, pro-
viding the Kremlin with a military
foothold in the region and welding
Armenia firmly into Russia’s
sphere of influence, without alien-
ating Azerbaijan.
“This is an opportunity to play
the role of peacekeeper in the clas-
sical sense,” said Andrei Kor-
tunov, the director general of the
Russian International Affairs
Council, a research organization
close to the Russian government.
“I want to hope that we are seeing
a learning process and a change in
the Russian strategy in the post-
Soviet space.”
With Russian support, Armenia
had won control of Nagorno-Kara-
bakh, a region of Azerbaijan in-
habited by ethnic Armenians, af-
ter a yearslong war in the early
1990s that was precipitated by the
breakup of the Soviet Union. Ar-
menian forces also captured sur-
rounding districts, expelling more
than half a million Azerbaijanis.
After a quarter-century of dip-
lomatic failures, Azerbaijan began
an offensive on Sept. 27 to retake
the area by force, making rapid
gains thanks in part to its sophis-
ticated, Israeli- and Turkish-made
drones.
In early November, Azerbaijani
troops wrested the mountaintop
citadel of Shusha from Armenian
control, scaling the wooded slopes
and fighting hand-to-hand in close
combat through the streets. By
Nov. 9, they were pummeling Ar-
menian soldiers along the road to
nearby Stepanakert, home to a
peacetime population of some
50,000 ethnic Armenians, and an
even bigger battle appeared im-
minent.
Then Mr. Putin, who earlier had
tried to broker a cease-fire,
stepped in. Azerbaijan that night
accidentally shot down a Russian
helicopter, potentially giving Mos-
cow a reason to intervene. The
Russian president delivered an ul-
timatum to Mr. Aliyev of Azerbai-
jan, according to several people
briefed on the matter in the coun-
try’s capital, Baku: If Azerbaijan
did not cease its operations after
capturing Shusha, the Russian
military would intervene.
The same night, a missile of un-
known provenance hit an open
area in Baku, without causing any
injuries, according to Azerbaijani
sources. Some suspected it was a
signal from Russia that it was pre-
pared to get involved and had the
capacity to inflict significant dam-
age.
Hours later, Mr. Putin an-

nounced a peace deal, and Mr.

Aliyev went on television to an-

nounce that all military opera-

tions would stop. Prime Minister

Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia said

he had no choice but to go along,

facing the prospect of even more

bloodshed on the battlefield.

Mr. Aliyev cast the deal as a vic-

tory, with all but a sliver of what

was Armenian-controlled terri-

tory in Nagorno-Karabakh being

returned to Azerbaijan. But he,

too, had to compromise: Nearly

2,000 Russian troops, operating as

peacekeepers, would now be sta-

tioned on Azerbaijani territory. It

was a strategic boon for Russia,

giving Moscow a military foothold

just north of Iran, but also a risk

because it put Russian troops in

the middle of one of the world’s

most intractable ethnic conflicts.

“I don’t know how it will end

this time, because there is no good

example of Russian peacekeepers

in the Caucasus,” said Azad

Isazade, who served in Azerbai-

jan’s Defense Ministry during the

1990s. “I am worried how it will

end.”

Seared in almost every Azerbai-

jani’s memory are the bloody

events of 1990, when Soviet tanks

rolled over demonstrators in Ba-

ku’s central square. Russian

troops have since intervened re-

peatedly in troubled corners of the

Caucasus, often under the moni-

ker of peacekeepers but acting

more like an invading army. Now

Russia will be pivotal to the future

of Nagorno-Karabakh, with the re-

gion’s long-term status still un-

clear.

“Russia doesn’t want to leave

this alone. They like this frozen

state,” said Farid Shafiyev, a for-

mer diplomat and director of the

government-financed Center for

Analysis of International Rela-

tions in Baku. “They are going to

meddle.”

But the deal with Mr. Putin ap-

pears to have suited Mr. Aliyev —

only in part because Azerbaijani

forces were already strung out

and faced a tougher, wintertime

fight ahead while bearing the add-

ed burden of managing a hostile

ethnic Armenian population,one

analyst said.

“I don’t think Aliyev needed

much persuading,” Thomas de

Waal, a senior fellow with Car-

negie Europe, said. “He values his

relationship with Russia.”

For Armenians, many of whom

had looked to build closer ties to

the West in recent years, the war

was a harsh reminder that Russia

remains critical to their security.

Because Azerbaijan’s main ally,

Turkey, posed what many Arme-

nians considered to be an exist-

ential threat, Armenians have

come back “to our default posi-

tion: the reflexive perception of

Russia as the savior,” said Richard

Giragosian, a political analyst

based in Yerevan, the capital of

Armenia.

It was Russia that offered ref-

uge to and fought with Armenians

against Ottoman Turkey during

the Armenian Genocide that be-

gan in 1915.

“Armenia is now ever more

firmly locked within the Russian

orbit, with limited options and

even less room to maneuver,” Mr.

Giragosian said. “The future secu-

rity of Nagorno-Karabakh now de-

pends on Russian peacekeepers,

which gives Moscow the leverage

they lacked.”

The Nov. 9 peace deal says noth-

ing about the territory’s long-term

status, and ethnic Armenians who

trickled back to their homes in

buses overseen by Russian peace-

keepers said they could not imag-

ine life in the region without Rus-

sia’s protection.

Down the road from the

Stepanakert military college now

housing the Russian command,

Vladik Khachatryan, 67, an ethnic

Armenian, said there was a rumor

going around Stepanakert that

gave him hope for the future.

“Soon, we will get Russian pass-

ports,” he said. “We won’t be able

to survive without Russia.”

Across from the Stepanakert

market, in Room 6 of Nver

Mikaelyan’s hotel, a maroon

bloodstain still covered the bed-

sheets more than a week after the

war’s end. The boxers and towels

of the room’s last guests hung on

the headboards, pierced by shrap-

nel from the Azerbaijani bomb

that hit in October.

Echoing other ethnic Armeni-

ans in the area, Mr. Mikaelyan

said he saw one clear path to a

sustainable peace: Nagorno-Ka-

rabakh becoming part of Russia.

The idea seems far-fetched, but it

has been floated by political fig-

ures in Russia and Nagorno-Kara-

bakh over the years, though not

by Mr. Putin.

“What else is to be done?” Mr.

Mikaelyan asked, after taking an-

other look at the blown-out hotel

room door, the TV ripped off the

wall, the trails of blood still stuck

to the third floor. “The European

Union is doing nothing. The Amer-

icans are doing nothing.”

Anton Troianovski reported from
Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh,
and Carlotta Gall from Baku, Azer-
baijan.

In Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Deal, Putin Trades Iron Fist for Deft Touch

From Page A

Above, Armenian soldiers and a Russian peacekeeping soldier,

on the vehicle, at a checkpoint last month in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Left, inside a cathedral in Shusha, which was hit by shelling dur-

ing the war, before the town was captured by Azerbaijan. Below,

an open air market in Stepanakert, which was partially destroyed

by shelling during the six-week war.

MAURICIO LIMA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

SERGEY PONOMAREV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

MAURICIO LIMA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A Kremlin applying a

more subtle blend of

soft and hard power.

A British woman who docu-
mented her travel around Europe
with her partner for the past six
years on a popular blog has gone
missing while hiking alone in the
Pyrenees mountains, the authori-
ties said.
Search crews were looking for
Esther Dingley, 37, who was last
seen on Nov. 22 in the mountains
in Luchonnais, an area in south-
western France near the border
with Spain, and had planned to re-
turn three days later.
The authorities in France said
on Tuesday that they were in-
creasingly pessimistic about the
chances of finding Ms. Dingley on
the French side of the border.

“We’ve already patrolled the

zone so much that I don’t really

know where else we could

search,” said Pierre Gaillard, the

deputy commandant of the

French mountain platoon leading

the search. He said the possibility

of snow on Tuesday could force

them to stop the search.

“We now have doubts that she

even got into France,” Mr. Gaillard

said. “There’s the same confusion

on the Spanish side.”

At the time of Ms. Dingley’s dis-

appearance, she had been on a

monthlong solo trek while her

partner, Dan Colegate, stayed on a

farm in Gascony, France, accord-

ing to the BBC.

The couple, who have been to-

gether for 18 years after meeting

at Oxford University, began their

journey as long-term hikers and

explorers in 2014 after Mr. Cole-

gate experienced medical compli-

cations following surgery. That

experience, they said, pushed

them to cancel their wedding,

abandon their successful careers

and find what made them happy.

They soon rented out their home,

sold their car and purchased a mo-

tor home, which they named

“Homer.”

Mr. Colegate declined to com-

ment on Monday but said in a

statement over the weekend that

Ms. Dingley’s disappearance had

“broken” him.

“I’ve not been saying anything,

but this wonderful person be-

lieves in the power of positive

thought and right now I’ll take

anything if it means that she can

be found,” he said. “I need her

back. I can’t face the alternative.”

In a post on the couple’s joint

Facebook page on Tuesday night,

Mr. Colegate said that the authori-

ties may be looking at explana-

tions other than an accident. He

said that a missing person’s inves-

tigation had begun in Spain and

that a special judicial unit in

France had opened an inquiry.

Mr. Colegate said that

searchers likely would have found

Ms. Dingley’s body had she fallen

from one of the hiking paths.

Ms. Dingley was last seen on

Pic de Sauvegarde on Nov. 22, ac-

cording to the BBC. She had been

walking from the town of Be-

nasque in Spain the day before

had planned to stay Sunday night

at a cabin in France, Mr. Colegate

said.

Ms. Dingley was last seen wear-

ing black and pink mountain

clothes, according to a missing

persons announcement from the

Civil Guard in Spain.

Mr. Colegate told the BBC on

Sunday that Ms. Dingley had been

on solo treks before: “She always

tried to keep in touch, but some-

times on her hikes was out of con-

tact for a couple of days,” he said.

“This is not looking good.”

‘I Need Her Back’: France and Spain Rush

To Find British Hiker Lost in the Pyrenees

By DERRICK BRYSON TAYLOR

Elian Peltier and Neil Vigdor con-
tributed reporting.

An experienced

explorer who was on a

monthlong solo trek.

Esther Dingley in a selfie taken

on Nov. 21, a day before she

vanished in southwest France.

ESTHER & DAN, VIA REUTERS