The Times - UK (2020-12-02)

the times | Wednesday December 2 2020 1GM 9

News

The coronavirus death toll passed

75,000 yesterday with the release of

figures from the Office for National

Statistics.

The total is higher than the govern-

ment’s official figure of 59,051, which

counts only those who die within 28

days of a positive test. The latest data

from the ONS, which records any death

with Covid-19 on the death certificate,

regardless of whether they tested posi-

tive for the virus, showed 2,697 such

deaths registered in England and Wales

in the week ending November 20.

That took the combined death toll

recorded by Britain’s three statistical

agencies to 71,719.

Adding the 3,384 deaths recorded on

the government’s list since the agen-

cies’ latest figures takes the number of

Covid-19 deaths to 75,103.

The ONS figures show that deaths

from Covid-19 are still rising in England

and Wales, despite the number of infec-

tions starting to fall in recent weeks.

Although hospital admissions are

beginning to follow suit, deaths will be

the last indicator to decline. The 2,

deaths were 231 more than the week

before and the highest number since

the week ending May 15.

They represent more than a fifth of

the 12,535 deaths from any cause regis-

tered that week, which were 21 per cent,

or 2,155 deaths, above the five-year

average. That means the number of

deaths not caused by Covid-19 was

slightly below the five-year average.

The rate of deaths above what would

normally be expected for the time of

year, or excess deaths, is considered one

of the best ways to track the pandemic

because it captures coronavirus deaths

that have not been recognised as such

and any caused by a lack of access to

usual healthcare, for example.

Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of

the Winton Centre for Risk and

Evidence Communication at Cam-

bridge University, said that the total

deaths figure was “substantially larger

than the peak for this week over the

past ten years, which was 10,882 in

2019” and “far greater than could be

explained by an ageing population”.

He added: “It is encouraging that

deaths that were not caused by Covid

were slightly below the five-year aver-

age. We might expect some deaths that

would normally occur now to have

been brought forward by the first wave.

But this still suggests that the collateral

damage of the measures against the

pandemic have not yet had an impact

on overall mortality.”

Of deaths with Covid-19 mentioned

on the certificate, 88 per cent (2,361)

mentioned it as the underlying cause.

Professor Spiegelhalter said:

“Between September 5 and November

20, 12,907 deaths involving Covid were

registered in the UK and there have

been roughly 3,000 since then, making

16,000 altogether in the second wave.

Sadly, the prediction that the second

wave would involve tens of thousands

of Covid deaths looks like it will be

fulfilled. We can expect this second-

wave total to rise to over 20,000 by

Christmas.”

I

t was obvious the economy

would take a hit as a result of the

coronavirus pandemic. But the

United Kingdom has had the

sharpest recession of any major

economy and is on course for one of

the longest recoveries in the world.

We are behind Mexico, Italy, France,

Canada and Germany. That is a

national failure and responsibility lies

squarely with the government.

The prime minister and the

chancellor will tell us it is simply bad

luck or that it was inevitable. It is not.

It is the consequence of incompetence

and short-term thinking that is

causing long-term damage.

An example is the continued failure

Prime minister must tell us the truth on impact of pandemic

to fix the test, trace and isolate

system. Until vaccines are rolled out,

this is our torch in the dark through

this pandemic. Yet in the past month

alone, half a million people who

should have been self-isolating did

not. That is no way to control the

virus.

The chancellor has made six

economic statements but has still

failed to come up with an effective,

targeted support package for

businesses, while millions of people

who are self-employed or forced to

self-isolate have been left behind.

When I presented the prime

minister with the choice of

introducing a short, sharp circuit

break in October over the half-term,

he put party politics before the

national interest and rejected it. The

consequences of this decision have

been a longer, deeper and more

damaging national lockdown that will

be worse for the economy and has put

more jobs at risk.

This pattern of behaviour is

irresponsible. It is the result of the

prime minister’s unwillingness to take

tough decisions and confront those in

his own party who are prepared to

vote down restrictions for irrational

and ideological reasons.

The sooner the prime minister

levels with his own side, the better.

Our public health and our economy

are interwoven, not separate elements

to be picked between. When we let

the virus get out of control, we

damage our economy.

That is why we need maximum

transparency and openness from the

government about the tough choices

we must take. That must be combined

with a proper plan to protect lives and

livelihoods. Against that background

it was alarming to read in yesterday’s

Times that the government is trying

to suppress the evidence of what is

actually going on in the economy.

The government published a thin and

meaningless report, while sitting on

the full dossier it has prepared. That is

no way to inspire confidence in

parliament or the country.

The prime minister must do the

right thing and release all the

modelling it has done of sectoral

impacts and potential job losses, so

that we can decide whether this

government’s economic package is

good enough and what further

improvements need to be made —

and he needs to do it this week. If he

fails to do so, Labour is ready to force

a vote on the issue and give

Conservative MPs the chance to join

us in flushing out the evidence. I do

not want to go down that road, but I

am prepared to do so in the national

interest.

In recent weeks, our brilliant

scientists have offered us optimism

that we will be able to get back to the

lives, the people and the places we

love. But we will still be living with

the effects of this virus for many years

to come. We cannot afford to be too

slow again or for more wasted

opportunities that lead inevitably to

deeper, longer, more damaging

lockdowns. The prime minister must

now restore public confidence by

coming up with a package of

measures that will protect the

economy and save lives.

Any package must be based on all

the evidence, not the limited evidence

the government has chosen to

release.

Sir Keir Starmer is the leader of the

Labour Party

Sir Keir Starmer

Comment

News

to win round the Tory rebels

Death toll passes

75,000 despite

falling infections

Kat Lay Health Editor

PAUL GROVER

The national picture

There were 13,430 new cases reported

yesterday, bringing the total to 1,643,

or 24.6 for every 1,000 people

How many people have Covid-19?

There were 603 deaths reported

yesterday, bringing the rolling

seven-day average of deaths to 460.

This compares with 425 a fortnight ago

How many people have died?

Seven-day

average

0

10,

20,

30,

Sep Oct Nov

National

R number

0.9 to 1

-18% from

7 days ago

Daily cases

(based on 7-day

moving average) verage