Fortune - USA (2020-12)

20 FORTUNE DECEMBER 2020 /JANUARY 2021

THREE BIG

BUSINESS

CHALLENGES

BIDEN WILL

INHERIT

Issues crucially impor-

tant to business will be

waiting for Biden on

Inauguration Day. He

has given hints on how

he’ll handle them.

A POTENTIAL COVID

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

Biden has said he

favors mandatory

masking nationally,

widely available

testing, free

distribution of

vaccines, and

generous relief to

workers as well as to

states and localities.

DE-ESCALATING

THE TRADE WAR

He opposes “poking

our inger in the eyes

of our friends” and

“will work with our

allies to mobilize more

than half the world’s

economy to stand up

to China.”

RESETTING

IMMIGRATION POLICY

He would end Trump’s

freeze on green cards

for new immigrants

and says he supports

“visas for permanent,

employment-based

immigration.” Policies

should be “responsive

to labor market needs.”

THE BRIEF  ECONOMICS

giving workers new legal

protections. He says he

will also protect employ-

ees, unionized or not, by

getting much tougher

on employers. “We will

increase funding and

staffing at the Department

of Labor to aggressively

enforce wage, hour, health,

and safety rules across the

economy,” the Democratic

platform promises.

Impose new

regulations

In addition to union-

related regulations, Biden

has been clear that he

wants to raise the fed-

eral minimum wage to

$15 and create a public

credit- reporting agency

and require federal lending

programs to use it—both

of which would require

legislation. He would

mandate paid family and

medical leave for up to 12

weeks, which would also

require legislation. On his

own, he could “reinvigo-

rate” the Consumer Finan-

cial Protection Bureau,

which was established in

the Dodd-Frank Act; he

appoints the director. And

he has promised to scruti-

nize mergers and acquisi-

tions much more closely,

which he could do through

the Justice Department

and the Federal Trade

Commission.

Add a public option

to Obamacare

Biden’s public option

would be available to all.

He would allow Medicare

to negotiate prescription

drug prices and would

permit importation of

lower-cost drugs. The U.S.

health care industry—

America’s largest industry,

accounting for 18% of the

entire economy—generally

hates those proposals, fear-

ing they would decimate

or demolish wide swaths of

the sector.

Increase

infrastructure

spending by

$2.4 trillion

during his term

That’s a change busi-

ness in general would love,

and delivering it ought to

be easy. Legislators are

united in wanting to bring

federal dollars back home.

But President Trump also

wanted an infrastructure

bill, and partisan warfare

was so fierce that in four

years Congress couldn’t

agree on the details. Biden

will have a tough time do-

ing better.

SO WHY DO so many CEOs

welcome Biden’s victory?

At a Yale conclave of top

CEOs in September, 77%

said they would vote for

him, and a range of major

business figures—Micro-

soft founder Bill Gates,

Facebook COO Sheryl

Sandberg, Amazon CEO

Je Bezos, and others—

quickly applauded his

win. Business leaders were

relieved for a couple of

specific reasons and one

big general reason. Specifi-

cally, Biden is less likely

than Trump to escalate

trade wars, not just with

China but also with U.S.

allies, notably Europe,

Canada, and Mexico. For

every company that ben-

efits from taris, dozens

of others suer from the

higher cost of imports

and from retaliatory tar-

is on their own exports.

While Biden vows to be

tough on China, he’s well

positioned to dial down

trade combat.

In addition, Biden will

likely be less menacing to

immigrants than Trump

has been. The agricul-

ture, construction, and

technology industries in

particular rely on immi-

grants and have suered

from Trump’s restrictions

and his bellicose rhetoric

that makes immigrants

feel fearful and unwel-

come. Biden won’t throw

open the gates; he doesn’t

want immigrants taking

jobs away from unionized

workers. But he says he’ll

provide a road map to

citizenship for undocu-

mented immigrants and

end workplace and com-

munity raids.

The big, general reason

many business leaders

are fine with a President

Biden is that they can’t

take the tumult any

longer. Business prizes

stability, predictability,

and certainty. Trump’s

incessant whipsawing

on some of the largest

issues—imposing taris,

closing borders, retaliat-

ing against companies,

leaving NATO—has ex-

hausted businesspeople.

As many of them say pri-

vately, they can compete

so long as they know the

rules, but can’t if the rules

are constantly changing.

Biden is far from the

business world’s ideal

President. But after the

past four chaotic years,

he’ll do just fine.