BY THE NUMBERS3850
S&P 500 AT THE
END OF 2021
Stocks will keep
climbing as new
vaccines gradu-
ally awaken more
industries from
their pandemic-
induced comas. But
rising interest rates
and slowing growth
in Big Tech will
keep markets out
of stampeding-bull
territory.$50
PER BARREL
PRICE OF OIL AT
THE END OF 2021
Even with a full
economic recov-
ery, demand won’t
reach pre-COVID
levels, as the work-
from-home crowd
continues to avoid
business travel and
commuting. De-
mand from emerg-
ing markets will
keep prices from
crashing outright.6
BLACK CEOs
RUNNING FORTUNE
500 COMPANIES
There are currently
just four Black
men (and no Black
women) running
Fortune 500 com-
panies, and one of
them will retire in
March. We expect
modest but mean-
ingful change on
that front next year:
Three Black CEOs
will be hired, includ-
ing one woman.Nancy’s Farewell Tour
At 80, House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi has led her
party through the hallowed
halls of the Capitol Building
for nearly two decades.
Now she’ll stand at the helm
of the Democratic ship for
one final voyage across the
stormy seas of the Beltway
before handing over the
rudder. Pelosi has been
notoriously tight-lipped
about whom she would
like her successor to be.
Out of the names floated,
like Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.),
Cheri Bustos (Ill.), and Tim
Ryan (Ohio), we predict it
will be California Rep. Linda
Sánchez—just elected to
her 10th term—who takes
the gavel.The Reaper Cometh
Republican Senate Leader
Mitch McConnell delights
in his nickname, the Grim
Reaper, a title he procured
from his steady and skillful
slaughter of any Democratic
bill that crosses his desk.
And sure, past performance
doesn’t indicate future
results, but it seems unlikely
that McConnell’s heart will
swell three sizes under a Joe
Biden presidency. A number
of Democrats are hopeful
that Biden’s long historyPOLITICSWASHINGTON: SAME BUT DIFFERENT
SOME NEW FACES WILL EMERGE IN 2021,
BUT DON’T EXPECT THE STATUS QUO TO BE
ROCKED ON CAPITOL HILL.in the Senate will give him
some sort of in with the
notoriously steel-faced
McConnell, but we don’t
predict any “Kumbaya”
moments uniting Mitch’s
Republicans with the left.A New Leader for the Left
Like Speaker Pelosi,
Vermont Sen. Bernie
Sanders will ease into the
octogenarian lifestyle, and
progressive Democrats
will soon realize that
their torchbearer is likely
closer to retirement than
another presidential run.
A leadership vacuum
will become a real risk,
and there are no obvious
candidates with the
seniority and stature
of Sanders.
There are a number of
young progressives working
in politics at the state level
(N.Y. State Sen. Julia Salazar,
we’re looking at you) that
Sanders could back for
federal runs in 2022.Trump TV
Sure, the President is
having trouble letting go
of the Oval Office, but wait
until he sees the TV set
re-creation. If there’s one
thing Donald Trump is good
at, it’s entertainment. Hisrallies captivated a nation,
and before that his reality
TV show was a runaway
hit. In 2021, Trump will
partner with One America
News Network—already
a mouthpiece for the
President—for a primetime
show that will stick it to Fox
News. He’ll go head-to-head
against Sean Hannity in the
9 p.m. slot, and steal away
Laura Ingraham to serve as
his TV Veep.Student Debt Canceled
Eager to inject an FDR-
esque stimulus into the
economy as the pandemic
rages on, Biden agrees to
Senators Chuck Schumer
and Elizabeth Warren’s
resolution to wipe away
50 grand of federal debt
per borrower. The executive
order bypasses Congress
and survives multiple legal
threats, thanks to broad
wording in the Higher
Education Act of 1965.Habers Gonna Habe
Fresh off a whirlwind tour
documenting the Trump
White House, star New York
Times reporter Maggie
Haberman lands a lucrative
book deal and—in her typical
prolific fashion—manages
to publish the account
just before year’s end.
The memoir immediately
rockets up the bestseller list
of her employer. Expect a
television adaptation
TRUMP: SARAH SILBIGERGETTY IMAGES; MCCONNELL: JON CHERRYGETTY IMAGES; PELOSI: JOE RAEDLE GETTY IMAGES; SANDERS: SCOTT OLSONGETTY IMAGES; BIDEN: SAUL LOEB AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES; TV & CAPITAL: GETTY IMAGES to follow.