THE INTERNET GOES
PRIVATE
(^) Platforms like Discord,
Telegram, and WhatsApp
have grown massively in
recent years by help-
ing users create invite-
only chats and channels
tailored to particular
interests or real-world
social groups. That will
only accelerate, thanks
to worries about social
media’s eects on our
privacy, mental health
and, in the U.S., political
divides so deep they seem
unbridgeable—especially
on Facebook.
DRIVERLESS CARS WILL
KILL (AGAIN
(^) In 2018, an Uber test
vehicle became the first
self-driving car to strike
and kill a pedestrian. Now
Waymo has dozens of
them on the road in Ari-
zona, and Tesla is promis-
ing self-driving software
in all of its vehicles soon.
But the technology is still
developing, and even per-
fect robots can’t prevent
every accident, so Uber
will have (tragic) company
soon enough.
BITCOIN SINKS BUT
REMAINS A TREASURE
(^) Bitcoin will hit an
all-time high of $50,000
next year, right before—
as usual—crashing. But
when the dust settles, the
price of the OG cryptocur-
rency will sustain around
$20,000. More investors
will flock to the so-called
digital gold, largely as a
hedge against inflation, as
regulators finally approve
a Bitcoin ETF.
GOOGLE SETTLES
ANTITRUST CASE
(^) The Justice
Department’s antitrust
case against Google is
limited in scope, focusing
only on search listings
and based on behaviors
that have been going on
for more than a decade,
like Google paying Apple
to be the default on
iPhones. Expect Google to
settle as it has in Europe
over similar charges.
Consumers will probably
get a choice of search
engines when buying a
new device, and exclusive
deals will be out.
A FOLDING PHONE
SUCCEEDS
(^) The first folding smart-
phones had a few things
in common besides trying
to combine the portabil-
ity of a phone with the
larger display of a tablet.
They were powerful,
but delicate—and rather
expensive, ranging from
Motorola’s $1,500 Razr
to Samsung’s $2,000
Galaxy Z Fold 2. But
companies like Motorola,
Xiaomi, and Samsung
are relentless at pushing
high-end features down
to entry-level models. Just
as they did with OLED
screens and 5G modems,
expect at least one of them
to oer a folding phone
selling for just three fig-
ures in 2021.
ON TARGET
We predicted a
strong year for the
S&P 500, though
weirdly we were too
conservative. We
said the election
polls would be wrong
again, even after
pollsters made cor-
rections for errors
from 2016. We also
foresaw that Tesla
would raise more
capital, that the vid-
eo-chat app House-
party would be a hit
(though we couldn’t
explain why), and
that 37 women
would be in charge
of Fortune 500
companies.
IN THE BALLPARK
While Joe Biden
didn’t put former
Georgia gubernato-
rial candidate Stacey
Abrams on his ticket,
she did play a crucial
role in his campaign,
helping to deliver
the Peach State for
the President-elect.
We got a reality TV
show starring the
Conways—one that
played out on TikTok
instead of Bravo.
OFF BASE
There were no Roar-
ing Twenties garden
parties; the new
James Bond movie
was delayed; and just
about every major
event was put on
hold. Angela Merkel
has kept her coali-
tion together; the
specter of negative
interest rates in the
U.S. evaporated; and
Carrie Lam is still the
boss in Hong Kong.
Though there’s al-
ways the chance
we were not wrong,
just early.
HOW WE
DID LAST
YEAR
26 FORTUNE DECEMBER 2020 /JANUARY 2021
TECH
The Shadowy Valley
It will be a year of reckoning for denizens
of the tech industry as their unchecked
behavior catches up with them.
THE BRIEF CRYSTAL BALL
3-6-1-6-6-7-5-1-3