FROM 30 NOVEMBER 2020 BIGISSUE.COM| 19
TIME FOR
BRITAIN’S
NEW DEAL
opinion.
ostofthefamouswordsutteredbyFranklinD
RooseveltduringAmerica’sGreatDepression
inthe1930sapplyequallytoBritainin2020.
Thepresidentbelievedthatgovernmentcould
ignitetheeconomybycreatingmillionsofjobs.Peoplewere
employedforthegreatergoodofsociety,tutoringthe
illiterate,buildingparks,andrepairingschools.“Nocountry,
howeverrich,canaffordthewasteofitshumanresources,”
Rooseveltargued.
Todaywefacea similarmomentofreckoning.It’stime
forustocreateourownNewDeal:guaranteeingjobsand
investingmuchmoreineducationandtraining.Chancellor
RishiSunakhasoutlinedsomehigh-spendbutmostly
short-termfixesforthecomingyearinthegovernment’s
latestSpendingReview.TheKickstartandRestartschemes
areprominentpoliciesinthelabourmarket.Butfurtherdelay
onstartingtoaddressthelong-termchallengesthatlieahead
willcostthecountrydearfordecadestocome,likelydamaging
socialmobilityprospects.
Ourrecentresearchhasrevealedbigandunequallyshared
dividesinemploymentandeducationinthewakeofthe
pandemic.Thefurloughandself-employmenthelpschemes
havekeptpeoplenominallyinwork,buthoursactuallyworking
haveplummeted.A“realistic”employmentratemeasuring
peoplenotworkingshowedhugefallsunderlockdown(down
17 percentagepoints)andwitha recoverysincebutstayingwell
belowpre-lockdownlevels.Significantnumbersofpeopleare
stilleffectivelyoutofwork.Thosewhohavebeenhithardest
areyoungerpeople,thesoloself-employedandthosewho
grewupinapoorfamily.Thishasexacerbatedalreadyexisting
inequalityinthelabourmarket.
Meanwhile,educationinequalitieshavealsorisen.Just
fourin 10 schoolpupilsduringtheinitiallockdownreceived
full-timeschooling(mainlythroughonlinelessons),witha
quarterreceivingnoteachingatall.Thisautumn,onlysixin
10 pupilswereexperiencingfull-timeteaching.Privateschool
pupilsweretwiceaslikelyastheirstateschoolcounterparts
tobenefitfromafulleducation.Schoolshavenotreturned
toanywherenearpre-lockdownlevelsofactivity– recentDfE
numbersreportschoolsbeingwellbelowfullcapacity– 83per
centofchildrenwereinschoolonNovember19,withmany
beingsenthometoself-isolate.
Averyrealdangeristhatpeoplewillsufferpermanent
economicoreducationscarringfromtheseexperiences.
Long-termunemploymentcanruinlivesandlivelihoods,
whilemissingoutonkeyexamgradescanbeterminalfor
futureprospects.Boldpoliciesaimedatthelongertermwillbe
neededtoavoidthesescarringeffects.
First,jobguaranteesforpeoplewhoare,orareindanger
ofbecoming,long-termunemployed.Suchjobscouldbe
productiveonesforthecountryinotherways,ina GreenNew
Dealcreatingamoresustainableenvironment,forexample.
One idea is to establish a National Youth Corps guaranteeing atLee Elliot Major and Stephen Machinleasttheminimumwageina widevarietyofworkandtrainingopportunities
foryoungerworkers.Wehavesuggesteda NationalSocialMobilityService
forgraduatestotutordisadvantagedchildrenortoprovidementoringin
theworkplacewhichhasgenuinepotentialtoleveluptheplayingfield
ineducation.
Employersshouldalsoberequiredtoprovidethesamewagesand
benefitstocontractorsasin-houseworkers.Wealsobelievethatintroducing
humancapitaltaxcreditscouldincentivisecompaniestoinvestinthe
reskillingandtrainingoftheiremployeesastheyseeknewjobsinthe
post-Covidworld.
Second,weneeda majorfundingboosttoeducationtoaddressthe
learninglossesthatwillimpactonchildrenforyearstocome.It’sgoodthat
thegovernmenthassupporteda nationaltutoringservicetohelpteachers
improveprogressofpoorerpupilsafterwemadethecaseforthis.Butthe
current£70mnationaltutoringprogrammeinEnglandforoneyearshould
beseenasa smalltrialfora muchbiggerinitiative,atleast 10 timesasbig,
targetedatthepoorestchildrenandlastingforseveralyears.
TheChancellorquiterightlyhasputinforpayincreasesforNHSworkers,
whilefreezingpayforotherpublicsectorworkers.Weshouldalsoatthevery
leastensurethatteachersreceivereal-termincreasesinannualsalaries.
Thesepolicieswouldcommandwidespreadpublicsupport,according
toourrecentLSE-CEPSocialMobilitySurveycovering10,000people.A
majority– 64percent– agreedorstronglyagreedgovernmentshould
introducejobguarantees,paidforbythestate,topreventlong-term
unemployment.Threequartersofrespondentsagreedwithincreasing
fundingforunderprivilegedschools.
DebatesstillrageabouttheeconomicandsocialimpactofAmerica’s
NewDeal,buthowmuchworsewouldithavebeenifRoosevelt’s
administrationhadnotintervenedasitdid?Evidenceonthelong-term
unemploymentfollowingBritain’s1980srecessionshowswhatanutterly
demoralisingexperienceitis.Beingoutofworkgeneratesscarsinterms
oflowersubsequentearningsandpoorerjobprospectsaswellas
lowerwellbeing,poorerhealthandchildrendoinglesswellatschool.
Researchshowsthatthoseenteringthelabourmarketinrecessionsalso
experienceeconomicscars,againfeaturinglowerlong-runearningsand
employmentprospectsanda greaterlikelihoodofenteringa lifeofcrime
comparedtopeoplewhoareluckyenoughtobeleavingschoolinbetter
economiccircumstances.
It’stimetoact.Wecouldcreatea morecollectiveandproductive
economyanda better-resourcededucationsystem,providingdecentjobs
andgivinga goodstarttochildrenwherevertheyareborn.Inthesummer,
BorisJohnsontalkedaboutcreatinga NewDealforBritain.ButasRoosevelt
showed,theultimatetestof political greatness is whether rhetoric is
followedupbyaction.LeeElliotMajoristhecountry’sfirstProfessorofSocialMobility,based
atExeterUniversity,andStephenMachinisaProfessorofEconomics
attheLondonSchoolofEconomics.Theirbook,WhatDoWeKnowand
What Should We Do About Social Mobility? is out now (Sage, £9.99)M