608Chapter 30The vital revolution of modern European history
chiefly rested upon a decline in infant mortality, and
that trend accelerated dramatically in the twentieth
century (see table 30.9). In 1900 Europeans expected at
least 15 percent of newborn children to die within the
first year of life. In prosperous Germany, the rate for in-
fant mortality was 23 percent; in Russia, more than 25
percent. As late as the 1920s, advanced countries such
as France (12 percent) and Germany (13 percent) still
had high rates. Between 1920 and 1950, the infant
death rate was cut in half, then halved again between
1950 and 1970, and finally halved once more between
1970 and 1990. Thus, the century witnessed the infant
mortality rate in England fall from 15.4 percent to
0.7 percent, and in Germany from 22.9 percent to
0.7 percent.
The sharp decline in infant mortality explains
much, but not all, of the decline in death rates. The vi-
tal revolution of the twentieth century also saw the
population cohort aged sixty-five years or older grow
steadily. The combination of better diet and nutrition,
better sanitation and public health standards, and
greatly improved medical knowledge and health care
delivery systems improved prospects for all. The conse-
quence was a remarkable increase in life expectancy. In
Great Britain in 1901—in the most prosperous society
in Europe—a newborn baby boy had a life expectancy
of slightly more than forty-five years. A century later,
the estimated life expectancy of a newborn had grown
to more than seventy-five years, an additional thirty
years of life or a 67 percent increase in expectation. If
the twenty-first century continues similar wonders, cen-
tenarians could become commonplace, perhaps the ex-
pectancy at birth. Even without such developments,
increased life expectancy has created a significantly
older society. In 1910 only 6–7 percent of the popula-
tion of Europe was age sixty-five or older; in the 1980s
western and northern Europe had 12 percent to 17 per-
cent of the population in that age cohort.The Life Cycle: Marriage and Divorce
Although many of the demographic trends of modern
history find their explanation in subjects such as diet or
disease, some important explanations must come from
human behavior rooted in institutions such as marriage
and the family. Both institutions changed significantly
during the twentieth century.Death rates per 1,000 population
Country 1910 1930 1960 1990
England 13.8 12.0 11.8 11.2
France 18.2 15.7 11.2 9.3
Germany 16.6 11.0 11. 411.2
Italy 19.2 14.1 11.7 9.4
Russia 28.2 17.8 7.2 16.0
Spain 22.5 16.6 8.7 8.5
Sweden 13.9 11.6 10.0 11.0
United States 14.7 11.3 9.3 8.6
Source: B. R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics, 1750–1970
(London: Macmillan, 1975), pp. 127–32; B. R. Mitchell, The Fontana
Economic History of Europe: Statistical Appendix, 1920–1970(London:
Collins, 1974), pp. 28–34; The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1995,
(Mahwah, N.J.: World Almanac Books, 1994), pp. 740–839, 959;
Information Please Almanac, Atlas, and Yearbook 1994(Boston, Mass.:
Houghton Mifflin, 1994), p. 135; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical
Statistics of the United States(Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 1960), p. 28.TABLE 30.8The Twentieth-Century Decline
in Death RatesDeaths of Infants under one year old, per 1,000 live births
Country 1900 1950 1990
England 15 430 7
France 160 52 7
Germany 229 55 (West) 7
72 (East)
Italy 17 46 4 8
Poland a 108 13
Russia 252 81 27
Sweden 99 21 6
Source: B. R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics, 1750–1970(Lon-
don: Macmillan, 1975), pp. 127–32; B. R. Mitchell, The Fontana Eco-
nomic History of Europe: Statistical Appendix, 1920–1970(London:
Collins, 1974), pp. 28–34; The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1995
(Mahwah, N.J.: World Almanac Books, 1994), pp. 740–839, 959; The
World Almanac and Book of Facts 1997(Mahwah, N.J.: World Almanac
Books, 1996), p. 964; Information Please Almanac, Atlas and Yearbook
1994 (Boston, Mass.: Houghton Mifflin, 1994), p. 135.
n.a. = Not available.TABLE 30.9The Twentieth-Century Decline
in Infant Mortality