multi-trillion-dollar aid package enacted
in the spring, the threat to the economy
will grow.
“The economy is going to be very
uncomfortable between now and when we get
the next fiscal rescue package,” Zandi said. “If
lawmakers can’t get it together, it will be very
difficult for the economy to avoid going back
into a recession.”
Some corners of the economy still show
strength, or at least resilience. Manufacturing
is one. The government said that orders for
durable goods rose 1.3% in October, a sign that
purchases of goods remain solid even while
the economy’s much larger service sector —
everything from restaurants, hotels and airlines
to gyms, hair salons and entertainment venues
— is still struggling. But economists caution that
factories, too, remain at risk from the surge in
coronavirus cases, which could throttle demand
in coming months.
And sales of new homes remained steady in
October, the latest sign that ultra-low mortgage
rates and a paucity of properties for sale have
spurred demand and made the housing market
a rare economic bright spot.
But at the heart of the economy are the job
market and consumer spending, which remain
especially vulnerable to the spike in virus
cases. Most economists say the distribution of
an effective vaccine would likely reinvigorate
growth next year. Yet they warn that any
sustained recovery will also hinge on whether
Congress can agree soon on a sizable aid
package to carry the economy through what
could be a bleak winter.