TheEconomistJune 1st 2019 231E
uropean electionsare rum affairs,
but the latest were stranger than ever.
On May 23rd voters went to the polls in
elections nobody wanted, as Brexit was
meant to happen in March. As expected,
Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party stormed
into first place, with 32% of the vote and 29
seats. It was a striking result for a party set
up only in February, and was five points
better than Mr Farage achieved as leader of
the ukIndependence Party in 2014. Adding
in the rump ukipvote makes the total for
parties backing a no-deal Brexit 35%, a big
number but less impressive when turnout,
though higher than in 2014, was only 37%.
If hard Leavers had a good night, so did
hard Remainers. The Liberal Democrats
took 20% of the vote and 16 seats, while the
Greens got 12% and seven seats. Adding in
the new Change ukparty, which had a ter-
rible night and won no seats, and the Scot-
tish and Welsh nationalists takes the com-
bined score of pro-Remain, pro-second-
referendum parties to 40%, more than the
no-dealers.
The big losers were the Tories and La-bour. Their combined vote share was just
23%, down from as much as 82% in the 2017
general election and less than half their
share in 2014. In effect, the European elec-
tions saw the centre squeezed to the advan-
tage of extremes on both sides. On Brexit,
the country is more obviously split down
the middle than ever.
For an opposition party, Labour’s per-
formance of coming third with just 14% of
the vote and ten seats was abject (see Bage-
hot). But it is the collapse of the Tories to a
mere 9% of the vote and four seats, the
party’s worst election result in 185 years,
that will have more immediate conse-
quences, because Theresa May, the prime
minister, is resigning. A leadership race
starts on June 10th. Some 11mps have al-
ready put themselves forward. These will
be winnowed down by their colleagues to
two, who will then be voted on by party
members. The hope is that this process fin-
ishes by the end of July, with the winner
immediately becoming prime minister.
The big question for all candidates is
how best to respond to Mr Farage’s success.Many believe that the only way to defeat
the Brexit Party now is to back leaving with-
out a deal. Among others, Dominic Raab
and Boris Johnson, the front-runner, prefer
a deal but want to keep no-deal as an op-
tion. Both also insist that Brexit must hap-
pen on October 31st, with or without a deal.
Some are more nuanced. Most want to
renegotiate Mrs May’s deal, yet are also
against no-deal. Michael Gove, the envi-
ronment secretary, is in this camp. Jeremy
Hunt, the foreign secretary, has said no-
deal is better than no Brexit. But this week
he called no-deal “political suicide”. His ar-
gument was that trying to force it through
could lead to a general election in which
the Tories would be annihilated. Rory
Stewart, the international development
secretary and another candidate, has said
he could not support a Tory prime minister
who goes for no-deal.
A key point is that Parliament has al-
ready voted against no-deal. Yet hardliners
say that, since leaving without a deal on Oc-
tober 31st is now the legal default, mps can-
not stop it. The Institute for Government, a
think-tank, points out that the routes used
before to prevent no-deal are no longer
available. But John Bercow, the Commons
Speaker, promises that Parliament will not
be sidelined. Since he also has no intentionBrexit and the ToriesCentre aground
Voters are ever more polarised between a no-deal Brexit and a second
referendum. A new Tory leader may find compromise impossibleBritain
24 TheBrexitParty
25 Torymembers
25 Reforminghighereducation
26 Townplanning
26 Townregeneration
27 Bagehot: Enemies withinAlso in this sectionCorrection:In a leader last week we wrote that
Britons are working 350bn hours a month. Hours are
at a record high, but remain within the bounds of
possibility. The correct figure is 4.6bn. Sorry.