The Economist - UK (2019-06-01)

24 Britain The EconomistJune 1st 2019

2 of vacating his post as he previously prom-

ised, he will surely find a way for mps to

block a no-deal Brexit if they wish.

What of Brussels? euleaders were cate-

gorical when extending the Brexit deadline

that there would be no renegotiation of the

withdrawal agreement, which includes the

Irish backstop to avert a hard border with

Ireland. That rules out a time limit on the

backstop, which would negate its purpose.

On this, euleaders cannot overrule Leo Va-

radkar, the Irish prime minister. They may

be open to another extension, but they will

surely reject concessions to a hardliner like

Mr Johnson, whom most dislike.

Yet that could change if a more emol-

lient figure with a clear parliamentary ma-

jority emerged. The euis happy to revise

the political declaration that accompanies

the withdrawal agreement. And, as Muj-

taba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a con-

sultancy, notes, one reason that the eure-

fused to offer Mrs May even marginal

changes to the agreement was that it still

doubted she would get it ratified.

In her resignation speech, Mrs May

talked of the need for compromise. Many

retorted that her own Brexit problems were

caused by her very refusal to compromise.

The difficulty for her successor is that an

increasingly polarised country is more in-

imical to compromise. That may point to

further delays, but it also raises the risk of

no-deal. The smart money increasingly

backs another referendum as the solution.

Whether it would deliver a clear answer is

another question. 7

Squeezed middle

Source:EuropeanParliament

Britain, voteshareinEuropeanelections, %

2014 2019

UKIP

Brexit Party

Conservative

Labour

Liberal

Democrats

Green

Change UK

SNP

Plaid Cymru

No-deal

Brexit

parties

Anti-Brexit

parties

Others

Traditional

parties

W

hen nigel farage took to the stage

after his triumph in the European

elections, he delivered a warning. “If we

don’t leave on October 31st then the scores

you’ve seen for the Brexit Party today will

be repeated in a general election,” he said.

“And we are getting ready for it.” His threat

will now be put to the test in Peterborough,

a small city in eastern England, which

holds a by-election on June 6th.

The Brexit Party’s predecessor, the uk

Independence Party (ukip), has long strug-

gled under the first-past-the-post system

used in Westminster elections. Although

61% of constituents voted to leave the Euro-

pean Union in 2016, Peterborough has nev-

er been a ukipstronghold. At the general

election two years ago, Labour took the seat

from the Conservatives. But Labour’s mp,

Fiona Onasanyo, was kicked out by voters a

month ago, having been jailed for pervert-

ing the course of justice in attempting to

dodge a speeding charge (she compared

her conviction to the persecution of bibli-

cal figures, including Jesus and Moses).

Despite its lack of political infrastruc-

ture in the city, the Brexit Party is a narrow

favourite to take the seat, according to boo-

kies. To do so the party will have to win over

both Labour and Tory voters. During the

European elections, it was keen to point

out that it had left- and right-wing candi-

dates. As a former participant on “The Se-

cret Millionaire”, a reality-tv show in

which business owners go undercover to

hand out cash, Mike Greene, the party’s

candidate, promises to attract jobs to the

city, as well as to improve schools and build

houses. Aside from a fervent desire to leave

the euwithout a deal, his priorities are not

always those of a typical Faragist. “People

talk of immigration as a huge problem. But

look at Peterborough and it’s one of the

things I love about it,” he says. “It makes us

a great, multicultural city.”

An attempt by small anti-Brexit parties

to select a single Remainer candidate failed

to get off the ground. And both the main

parties are in bad shape, coming into the

vote straight after a hammering in the

European election. The Tories are in the

unusual position of being unable to tell

voters who their candidate will work under

in Westminster. Labour has to win back

support after the disaster of their last mp.

“We can’t afford another Corbyn candidate

in Peterborough,” insisted Paul Bristow, the

Tory candidate, at a debate on May 28th.

The sparse attendance at the debate

suggests that voter fatigue may play a role.

The vote is the third in quick succession in

Peterborough, after local and European

elections. As such, the poll will be a big test

for Labour, which relied on a surge of en-

thusiastic new voters last time round, and

its new candidate, Lisa Forbes, is an unin-

spiring trade unionist. The party is unlike-

ly to have a good night on June 6th. But all it

wants is to do well enough to hold off the

Brexit Party. 7

PETERBOROUGH

Having won the European elections, can the Brexit Party gain a foothold

in Westminster?

The Brexit Party

Now for a real test

All thumbs