The Economist - UK (2019-06-01)

The EconomistJune 1st 2019 Europe 29

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The fragmentation follows the pattern

of recent national elections. The decline of

big-tent parties and the rise of smaller ri-

vals have made forming governments

harder. Take Spain, where a two-party sys-

tem has become a five-party one and de-

cades of stable government have given way

to a spate of wobbly, short-lived govern-

ments that have struggled to pass impor-

tant laws. Yet the picture at a European lev-

el is not nearly so gloomy. The European

Parliament’s problem has never been its in-

ability to marshal deals and coalitions. No

party alone has ever held a majority there,

and yet the assembly passes about 90% of

the legislation it considers in a process of

“codecision” with national governments.

An end to squishy consensus

What the parliament has lacked is a visible

political contest. But for the first time in

the four-decade history of elections to the

European Parliament, turnout has risen;

from 43% in 2014 to 51%. This may be ex-

plained by a combination of factors. The

election of Mr Trump, no fan of the eu, and

the Brexit vote have both reminded voters

of the union’s vulnerability. New chal-

lenges that cross national borders, such as

migration and economic disruption, have

emphasised the eu’s role. Support for the

union has risen and even Eurosceptic par-

ties talk less about leaving and more about

change from within. Personalities like Mr

Macron, Mr Orban and Mr Salvini—and ac-

tivists such as Greta Thunberg, whose

youth climate strikes have swept European

cities—have become eu-wide political fig-

ures. The result is a more plural, varied leg-

islature resting on a foundation of higher

public engagement with the union.

In practice, three formations are possi-

ble in the new parliament. The first two are

expanded grand coalitions. With either the

greens or the liberals, the old epp-s&dalli-

ance would still wield a majority. But that

would leave them vulnerable to rebellions,

so a “super-grand coalition” could instead

include all four parties for a solid majority

of 131. Such an alliance would probably be

necessary to push through big votes such

as that on the eu’s next seven-year budget.

But it would contain a vast ideological

spectrum, ranging from quasi-Marxists on

the left edge of the green bloc to hardened

nationalists like Mr Orban (for now, though

he may soon quit or face expulsion) on the

right edge of the epp.

So yet other permutations may be need-

ed to pass some of the legislation to come

in the next European parliamentary per-

iod, which could include contentious mea-

sures like budget reforms, new common

border controls, a convergence of mini-

mum wages and a carbon tax. The epp

might rely sometimes on some of the saner

right-wing nationalists to forge majorities

on certain economic issues where the cen-

tre-left disagrees. The s&dmight rely on

the hard-left to pass social and environ-

mental measures that lack the epp’s whole-

hearted support. The liberal group’s stance

will probably decide a lot of measures. The

anti-establishment right by contrast may

be able to organise blocking minorities on

certain matters—especially if Mr Salvini is

able to forge a single dominant nationalist

group—but it is divided and lacks the num-

bers to set the agenda on its own.

The first big test of the new arithmetic

will be the parliament’s vote on the Euro-

pean Commission president. The candi-

date for the eu’s biggest job is nominated

by national leaders but must secure the

backing of a majority of the parliament—a

first test of a super-grand coalition. It will

also pit the union’s emerging left-liberal

bloc, gathered around Mr Macron, against a

conservative one grouped around Mrs Mer-

kel (see Charlemagne). With the decline of

the eu’s two big duopolies, the Franco-Ger-

man alliance and the epp-s&dmajority in

the parliament, this will be a first taste of

the case-by-case deals and stark political

differences that are bound to become more

important. The European election had

been billed in some quarters as a

nationalist blow to the ideal of a Europe-

wide politics. Instead it may come to repre-

sent the invigoration of that ideal. 7

The stalled insurgency

Source: EuropeanParliament *AtMay29th †IncludesEnMarchein 2019 ‡Includesnon-attachedandothers

Seats in theEuropeanParliamentbygroup,totalseats=751

63 58 54

Europe

ofNations

&Freedom

70 48

Conservatives

andReformists

Europeof

Freedom

&Direct

Democracy

105

67

69

(^201450)
2019*
221 191 52 52
179 153 38 32
Pro-EU groups Eurosceptic groups
European
People’s Party
Socialists and
Democrats
United Left/
Nordic
Green Left
Others‡
Greens/
European
Free Alliance
Alliance of Liberals
and Democrats†
Majority
I
t will takeweeks for the results of the
European elections to take effect; the par-
liament does not convene until July. But in
some countries events moved swiftly.
Within days of the vote a chancellor was
forced from office, a snap election called, a
de facto leader sent to prison and some
party chiefs left fighting to survive.
The ruling Christian Democratic Union
(cdu) and its Bavarian ally took first place
in Germany, but with a record low score of
29%. The Greens surged into second place
with over 20% of the vote. A poor national
result for the far-right Alternative for Ger-
many masked a strong showing in the
country’s east, where the party came first in
two of three states that will hold elections
in the autumn. The biggest losers were the
Social Democrats (spd), the cdu’s coalition
partner, who slumped to 16% and lost a sep-
arate election in the city-state of Bremen
for the first time in over 70 years.
Germany’s coalition is tattered but
holding, for now. Yet a febrile mood has
taken hold inside the ruling parties. An-
drea Nahles, the embattled spd chair-
woman, has decided to flush out any inter-
nal foes by putting her leadership of the
parliamentary group up for early election.
But Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader
of the cdu, managed to distract from the
spd’s woes by appearing to suggest that
YouTube commentators should be subject
to regulation during election campaigns,
exposing her to charges (which she denied)
of opposing free speech. Inside the cdu
some wonder if the gaffe-prone Ms Kramp-
Karrenbauer has what it takes to succeed
Angela Merkel, her mentor, as chancellor.
Elsewhere it was a mixed night for go-
verning parties. The results in Italy re-
versed the roles of junior and senior
partner in western Europe’s only populist
government. Matteo Salvini’s nationalist
Northern League doubled its tally from last
year’s general election to 34% of the vote;
the anti-establishment Five Star Move-
ment (m 5 s) crashed from 32% to 17%. The
opposition centre-left Democratic Party
beat expectations to take second, with 23%.
The League’s triumph could tempt Mr
Salvini, the deputy prime minister, to force
an election and dump the m 5 s in favour of a
coalition with other right-wing parties. But
after the result he said that his loyalty to the
existing arrangement had “never been in
question”. The bigger doubts are over the
m 5 s. With the whip firmly in his hand, Mr
Across Europe, the elections have
shaken up domestic politics, too
The European Parliament elections (2)
Winners and losers