The Economist - UK (2019-06-01)

50 Asia The EconomistJune 1st 2019

P

olitical transitionsare rarely plain

sailing in Papua New Guinea (png). The

country’s prime ministers like to cling to

office regardless of mass desertions of

their political allies to their opponents’

side. Its parliamentary speakers defy the

rules to keep their jobs. Governments

sometimes put pressure on the judiciary

and office of the governor-general to help

them stay in power. So it was in 2011 during

the political turmoil that eventually result-

ed in Peter O’Neill taking over as png’s

prime minister. And so it has been again re-

cently, as he has fought to keep his job. Fi-

nally, on May 29th, he tendered his resig-

nation to avoid the humiliation of defeat in

an impending vote of no-confidence.

While in office Mr O’Neill presided over

a boom in the export of minerals. A $19bn

project, launched in 2014, involved the ex-

traction of liquid natural gas in the South-

ern Highlands, a province. It is the biggest

ever private-sector investment in png. But

Mr O’Neill’s opponents say it has brought

little benefit to local people. Paul Flanagan,

a former treasury official in png, says the

country’s living standards have been fall-

ing in the past five years.

A no-confidence motion against Mr

O’Neill was originally due to take place in

February. But he avoided it by declaring a

three-month suspension of parliament. In

April discontent grew over another natu-

ral-gas deal, worth $13bn, with ExxonMo-

bil, Total and Oil Search, a local firm in

which the government has a big stake.

Some politicians alleged that its terms

were too opaque, and appeared to favour

the foreign companies. Some of Mr

O’Neill’s cabinet colleagues agreed. First

the finance minister, James Marape, re-

signed. Others soon followed.

On May 7th Mr O’Neill suspended par-

liament for another three weeks. When it

reconvened it became clear that he could

no longer stem the tide. By resigning before

the no-confidence motion, Mr O’Neill al-

lowed ministers and pro-government leg-

islators to regroup behind Mr Marape as his

replacement. Mr Marape won the resulting

election by 101 votes to eight. He is unlikely

to push for big changes in policy.

Australia may have reason to miss Mr

O’Neill. He won much favour there for ac-

cepting unwanted seekers of asylum in

Australia, many of them from war-afflicted

regions, on a remote island. Other coun-

tries will wonder how the leadership

changeinpngwillaffecttheirinterests.

BothChinaandAmericahavebeentrying

tocourtfavourtheretostrengthentheirin-

fluenceina regionofstrategicimportance.

Theyhavebeenpouringmoneyintoinfra-

structure.Americahaspledgedtohelpre-

builda mothballednavalbase.

ButMrO’Neill’sdeparturewillbelittle

mournedathome.Hecametopowerin

2011 pledgingtofightcorruption.Therehas

beenlittleprogress. Hisremote, moun-

tainouscountryremainsmiredinpoverty.

Nearly90%ofits8mcitizensliveinrural

areas.Manyofthemaresubsistencefarm-

erswithnegligibleaccesstostateservices.

Hissuccessorfacesa colossalchallenge. 7

Massive energy deals trigger the

resignation of a prime minister

Politics in Papua New Guinea

A departure

unmourned

A

rms aloft, Noriko Suematsu three

times chants her victory cry: “Banzai!”

She has just won a third consecutive term

as mayor of the city of Suzuka in Mie, a pre-

fecture in central Honshu, Japan’s main is-

land. To pose for the cameras recording her

triumph, she is given a lobster and a red

sea-bream—auspicious celebratory props

often used by politicians. This time is dif-

ferent from her two previous wins. “It was

my first time winning the race uncon-

tested,” she confesses. “It felt strange.”

Odd perhaps, but such walkovers are far

from uncommon. In the most recent na-

tionwide local elections, held in April, 30%

of city mayors ran uncontested, up slightly

from the previous poll in 2015. A whopping

45% of mayors in towns and villages were

elected unopposed. A record number of lo-

cal-assembly members, elected in each

municipality, also won seats with zero

votes. In some rural areas there were more

assembly seats than candidates.

The number of uncontested races has

been climbing since the early 1990s, partic-

ularly in the countryside. One reason is

that the population is falling and the pool

of candidates is shrinking. The National

Institute of Population and Social Security

Research, a government think-tank, reck-

ons about 95% of local municipalities will

have fewer residents by 2045. Already, 80%

are experiencing declining populations.

At the same time, interest in local elec-

tions is sagging. In the 1950s more than

four-fifths of the electorate would vote in

local races. But in April turnout sank to re-

cord lows, under 50%. Voters have been put

off by frequent scandals, from petty cor-

ruption to sexual harassment. Moreover,

“people don’t understand what these local

lawmakers do,” says Ken Victor Leonard Hi-

jino of Kyoto University.

Despite a small increase in young and

female lawmakers—like Ms Suematsu,

who is in her forties—local politics is still

dominated by old men. “In these munici-

palities, candidates are so old they have a

hard time putting up election posters,” says

Shigeki Uno of the Nippon Institute for Re-

search Advancement, another think-tank.

Indeed, three-quarters of town and village

assembly members are over 60. The oldest,

aged 91, holds a seat on a city assembly in

Shizuoka, in central Japan.

Young people are loth to stand because

local politics is not a financially rewarding

profession. The law bans assembly mem-

bers from holding other jobs concurrently.

Their pay averages around ¥300,000

($2,740) a month, hardly enough to support

young families. “It’s basically a job for the

retired,” sniffs Mr Uno. And for little pay,

the workload is onerous.

There has been talk of allowing local

lawmakers to hold second jobs and to con-

vene meetings out of office hours. Some

towns have raised wages. One almost dou-

bled salaries for assembly members under

50, from ¥180,000 a month to ¥300,000. A

couple of depopulated villages on Shikoku

island are thinking of abolishing the elect-

ed assembly in favour of a system of direct

democracy based on referendums.

None of this on its own, however, seems

likely to end the spate of uncontested polls.

“We need to spread the word about the ap-

peal of being involved in local politics,”

says Ken Nakamura, a former mayor who

now leads Waseda University’s Research

Institute of Manifesto. Local politicians

have a lot of say in policies relating to

everything from child care to road safety.

He hopes that, when children are asked

about their dream job, more of them will

say “politician”. That might make Japan un-

ique. At least it might encourage more to

become voters when they grow up. 7

SUZUKA, MIE PREFECTURE

Local assemblies are running out of

members—and voters

Local government in Japan

No contest