The New York Times - USA (2020-12-07)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2020 A

N

LONDON — It can be hard, in the cli-
mactic days of a high-stakes negotiation,
to separate theatrics from substance —
and so it was on Saturday evening, when
Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain
and the president of the European Com-
mission, Ursula von der Leyen, hung up
after an hourlong phone call.
Ms. von der Leyen said Britain and the
European Union would send their nego-
tiators back to the table in a last-ditch ef-
fort to close the gaps holding up an
agreement on their post-Brexit trading
relationship. Mr. Johnson’s aides re-
leased a vivid photo of him on the phone,
gesturing in the glare of an old-fashioned
desk lamp, like a wartime prime minister
battling on behalf of his country.
On Monday, the two leaders will speak
again to determine whether a deal can be
struck by a Dec. 31 deadline. If not, the
European Union will begin imposing tar-
iffs on British goods. Four and a half
years after Britons voted narrowly to
leave the union, the final act of the long-
running Brexit drama is at hand.
With the outcome so uncertain, Britain
and the European Union are preparing
their domestic audiences either for a
landmark accord that will require com-
promise on both sides — or for a break-
down that will disrupt cross-channel
trade, pitching both Britain and Europe
into uncharted territory.
Nobody disputes that there are genu-
ine differences between the two sides,
ranging from state aid to fishing rights.
“There is still some distance to travel,
and the distance has yet to be traveled,
because it involves concessions that are
painful,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an ana-
lyst at the political risk consultancy Eur-
asia Group. “That’s part of the reason
both sides have a vested interest in being
seen to be fighting.”
That is especially true of Mr. Johnson,
who won election last year by promising
to “get Brexit done.” Under the terms of
the withdrawal agreement he signed
with Brussels, Britain formally left the
European Union last January. But it
agreed to abide by the bloc’s rules and
regulations for an 11-month transition
period until the two hammered out more
permanent trade arrangements.
Now, Mr. Johnson will have to decide
whether the European Union’s demands
are too much of a threat to his vision of
British sovereignty. He knows that strik-
ing an accord that is seen as a betrayal of
Brexit could be toxic, wrecking his rela-
tions with the faction of the Conservative
Party that helped him to power. The
same Brexiteers ruthlessly disposed of
Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.
After months of grinding negotiations,
the two sides are wrestling over the
same issues that have divided them from
the start: state aid to industries —
known as the “level playing field” — and
European Union access to British fishing
waters.
Fishing has become a charged issue as
President Emmanuel Macron of France,
facing his own election campaign in 2022,
has pushed for continued access for
French fishing fleets. Mr. Johnson has
made big promises to his country’s fish-
ermen, who have complained for years

about sharing Britain’s waters with con-

tinental boats, which in some areas can

catch much more than British ones.

Although economically insignificant

— its annual contribution to Britain’s

economy is less than that of the fashion-

able London department store Harrods

— the fishing industry is politically to-

temic because of its importance to coast-

al towns, where there are few other

sources of employment.

Last week, the French prime minister,

Jean Castex, visited the port of

Boulogne-sur-Mer, in France’s far north,

to reassure fishermen. The country’s Eu-

rope minister, Clément Beaune, warned

that Paris would veto any unsatisfactory

trade deal. Because Britain sells much of

the fish it catches inside the European

Union, analysts believe a deal is in the in-

terests of both sides and will therefore

not be the cause of a collapse.

Perhaps harder to bridge is the gap

over rules on fair competition, an issue

where the two sides are still talking past

each other.

Mr. Johnson says that since Britain

wants only a basic free trade deal — simi-

lar to the one Canada struck with the Eu-

ropean Union — Britain should not be

tied to European rules. But officials in

Brussels fear that Britain, as a large

economy on Europe’s doorstep, could

adopt lower labor or environmental

standards, flood the European market

and undercut continental companies.

Mr. Johnson appears willing to pre-

serve existing standards that Britain

agreed to as a member of the European

Union, but not to adopt ones that Brus-

sels might put in place in the future. For

him, analysts said, this is a question of

sovereignty and independence, which he

views as the prime dividend of Brexit.

Yet the fear in continental Europe is

that this could effectively give Britain a

veto over future European policy. For

ambitious leaders like Mr. Macron, that

would threaten the sovereignty of the

European Union at a time when he and

others are seeking a more muscular role

in the global economy.

“It’s about the E.U. being a geopolitical

platform in the world, having a voice in

the competition with China and in its re-

lationship with the new Biden adminis-

tration in the U.S.,” Mr. Rahman said.

Mr. Johnson must also consider his re-

lations with President-elect Joseph R. Bi-

den Jr., who opposed Brexit.

The Johnson government recently in-

troduced legislation giving it the power

to renege on parts of its withdrawal

agreement with the European Union

that deal with Northern Ireland. That an-

tagonized the Europeans, but it also ruf-

fled Mr. Biden, because such moves

could lead to the return of a hard border

on the island of Ireland.

Mr. Biden warned Mr. Johnson not to

do anything in his Brexit negotiations

that would threaten the Good Friday

Agreement, which ended decades of sec-

tarian violence in Northern Ireland. If

London and Brussels strike a trade deal,

Mr. Johnson would almost certainly re-

move the offending language from the

legislation.

Until then, however, his ministers in-

sist they will go ahead with the Northern

Ireland bill, which is scheduled to return

to the House of Commons on Monday.

That could inject another combustible el-

ement into the talks. With time running

out, analysts are nervous that any mis-

calculation could lead to a breakdown in

talks with the European Union.

“If both sides were prepared to jump

on an equal basis, you could see a deal,”

said David Henig, director of the U.K.

Trade Policy Project at the European

Center for International Political Econ-

omy, a research institute.

“Any prime minister would prefer a

deal,” Mr. Henig added, “but Boris John-

son has backed himself into a big corner

— and while all logic runs toward an

agreement, momentum and emotion are

running against.”

By MARK LANDLER

and STEPHEN CASTLE

As Deadline Nears, Johnson Walks Tightrope for Brexit Trade Deal

Still at Odds With E.U. Over Aid and Fishing Rights

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, right, is juggling painful concessions with the go-it-alone attitude of fervent Brexiteers.

HENRY NICHOLLS/REUTERS

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, is preparing the bloc for a possible trade disruption.

JULIEN WARNAND/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, VIA POOL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

BUCHAREST, Romania — Amid
record low turnout, voters in Romania on
Sunday dealt a setback to the country’s
prime minister, Ludovic Orban, in a sur-
prisingly tight race that threatened his
grip on power.
Mr. Orban claimed victory Sunday
evening, even though his center-left Na-
tional Liberal Party was running a close
second to its main rival, the Social Demo-
cratic Party, in early results.
Mr. Orban’s party is expecting that an
alliance with a smaller party will help
keep it in power. Mr. Orban has pledged
to continue efforts to modernize the
country, one of the European Union’s
poorest member states, while also keep-
ing Romania on a pro-European path.
But a strong showing by the Social
Democratic Party, which has been ac-
cused of a host of political scandals in re-
cent years, and the potential arrival in
Parliament of a new nationalist party
soured the mood for many Romanians.
They had been hoping for a clearer sign
that the country was putting the past be-
hind it.
The elections were never likely to give
a strong majority to any single party.
But the outcome appears to allow a
working coalition between two center-
right parties: Mr. Orban’s National Lib-
eral Party and an alliance known as
U.S.R.-PLUS, which appeared set to
come in a strong third. Still, they will
most likely need to bring in additional co-
alition partners to retain power.
Hours before polls closed, Mr. Orban
urged Romanians to go out to vote.
“Four years ago, low turnout led to a
Parliament lacking legitimacy, a Parlia-
ment which undermined the rule of law
and democratic institutions,” he wrote on

his Facebook page.

But his appeals appeared to fall flat.

Turnout was less than 32 percent of eligi-

ble voters, the lowest in the country since

the fall of Communism over three dec-

ades ago.

Four years ago, after the Social Demo-

crats took office, Romania was con-

vulsed by a series of political scandals.

Vast protests erupted in February

2017 over an emergency decree that ef-

fectively decriminalized low-level cor-

ruption, and demonstrators denounced

longstanding graft in the country. The fir-

ing of Laura Codruta Kovesi, the head of

Romania’s anticorruption agency,

spurred more protests a year later.

For a while, it had looked as if Romania

was following the path of Poland and

Hungary and pursuing a more illiberal

form of democracy. But in 2019, the Social

Democrats’ powerful leader, Liviu Drag-

nea, was jailed for abuse of office, and the

government was toppled after a no-con-

fidence vote in October that year.

In the weeks leading to the election,

polls had tightened, with the National

Liberal Party experiencing a fall in sup-

port amid criticism of the handling of the

coronavirus pandemic. Romania, which

has imposed relatively strict lockdown

measures, has registered more than

500,000 confirmed cases of the virus,

with more than 12,000 deaths.

Sorin Ionita, a political analyst at the

Bucharest-based research group Expert

Forum, said that the Social Democrats’

approach under Mr. Dragnea had an ob-

vious impact on the presidential election

but that “low turnout and the party get-

ting rid of the toxic team around Drag-

nea” gave the party a stronger public im-

age.

In a statement after polls had closed,

Mr. Orban said that his party considered

itself to be “both the moral winner and

the winner at the end of the counting

process,” and that it would be able to

quickly form a parliamentary majority.

Romania has experienced a conveyor

belt of governments and cabinets in re-

cent years, with five prime ministers in

five years. Mr. Orban’s minority adminis-

tration lost a no-confidence vote this

year, but ultimately remained in power

to avoid political uncertainty in the face

of the pandemic.

While the closeness of the election

could have an impact on the next govern-

ment, experts predict that the race might

be quickly forgotten.

“Once they are in and form a coalition,

it will be very stable for the next four

years,” Mr. Ionita said.

Surprisingly Tight Vote Leaves Romania’s Prime Minister Fighting for Power

By KIT GILLET

Prime Minister Ludovic Orban of Romania, left center, urged his countrymen to vote, above right, but turnout was less than 32 percent of eligible voters, the

lowest there since the fall of Communism three decades ago. The Social Democratic Party was ahead, followed by the National Liberal Party and U.S.R.-PLUS.

ROBERT GHEMENT/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK VADIM GHIRDA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

An incumbent declared

victory even as a rival

party led in early results.

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