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I
n1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore made astartling statement.
Every year forthe following decade,hesuggested, the number of
transistors on mainstream chips would double.Shorty after,he
amended that predication to adoubling every two years, and
remarkably his 10-year forecast has pretty much held true to the
current day. This has provided us with huge increases in computing
power,and no prospect of it ever coming to the end of the line.Until
now,that is, because some experts believe Moore’s Law has run its
course,and that future developments will be much more modest.
This gloomy prediction relates to the ‘business as usual’ scenario of
speed improvements coming from even more transistors, fuelled by a
reduction in the chip’s feature size.It’s this shrinking of the on-chip
transistors that seems to be stalling, but some experts are considering
whether there are other ways to bring us back on course forthe
year-on-year improvements we’ve grown to expect. In particular,
pundits suggest, the future of computing might be amulti-faceted
one,with multiple technologies working hand in hand.
