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Shifting sands

Roger McShane: Middle East editor, The Economist

New conflicts are shaping an already volatile region

2021 in brief

Two very tall towers open in the Middle East. The Dubai Creek Tower will be at least
820 metres high. Soon after, the Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia is due to take over as the
world’s tallest building, and the first to exceed 1km in height

ISRAEL WAITED 31 years for Egypt to become the first Arab state to make peace with it.
Another 15 years passed before Jordan became the second. And more than a quarter of
a century after that, in 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the third. But
things are moving faster now. Bahrain and Sudan quickly followed the UAE —and were
applauded by other Arab rulers, for whom the Palestinian cause has grown stale. More
countries will recognise Israel in the year to come, perhaps even conservative Saudi
Arabia.

The cooling of Arab-Israeli hostility is but one way the Middle East is changing, and
perhaps not even the most important. Fresh conflicts are arising as old powers move
out, new powers move in and local players assert more influence. These changes will
accelerate in 2021 and last well beyond it.