Iran remains the primary axis around which countries in the region orient themselves.
Concern over its threatening rhetoric, foreign adventurism and nuclear activity helped
bring Israel and the Arab states together. The conflict between them and Iran has
largely defined the past decade, fuelling wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and adding to
chaos elsewhere. Joe Biden wants to lower the temperature, but America is less engaged
than it was. And a different struggle, one that also involves proxies and foreign powers,
may shape the region’s future.
It begins with the UAE. “Little Sparta”, as it is sometimes called, has long been
overshadowed by its bigger neighbour and ally, Saudi Arabia. The UAE, though, is
arguably more influential. It often wields its power softly, by touting “the Dubai model”
(of good governance and economic dynamism) and throwing its petrodollars around
foreign capitals. In Iran it sees a problem, but also a business partner (Iranian firms
have offices in Dubai), so it has aimed to reduce tensions with the mullahs. But the UAE
has a sharp side, too.
The issue that animates its de facto ruler, Muhammad bin Zayed, is his opposition to
political Islam, which he views as a threat. Since the Arab spring briefly brought an
Islamist government to power in Egypt, as America looked on, Prince Muhammad has
taken a more active role in the region. He has used the UAE’s hefty resources to beat
back Islamist groups. This included funding a popular uprising against Egypt’s Islamist
government and supporting the subsequent military takeover.
That pits Prince Muhammad against Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s strongman
president, who champions the Islamists. Their rivalry is predictably bitter. Istanbul has
become a hive of Arab dissidents. The UAE accuses Turkey of teaming up with Qatar to
push political Islam across the region, with the Turks providing the muscle and the
Qataris the cash. Since 2017 the little emirate has been under blockade by a UAE -led
coalition, in part over its support of Islamist groups. Turkey has come to Qatar’s aid. In
2019 it completed construction of a military base there that can host 5,000 Turkish
troops.
Mr Erdogan has also sent troops (as well as arms and mercenaries) to support the UN-
backed government in Libya, which just happens to work with Islamist militias. It was
thus able to repel an offensive by Khalifa Haftar, a rebellious warlord and staunch anti-
Islamist, who is backed by the UAE, Egypt and Russia. The dispute is spilling into the
eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey has claimed the right to drill in waters off Greek
islands based on a deal it signed with Libya. The Greeks, unsurprisingly, disagree. They
held a military exercise in August in which the Emiratis took part.
Most Arab states still do not consider Turkey to be as big a threat as Iran. But countries
such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are increasingly concerned about Mr
Erdogan’s adventures in their neighbourhood. He has occupied parts of northern Syria
and hit deep inside Iraq, operations aimed at Kurdish forces whom Turkey considers
terrorists. In the West, too, leaders view Mr Erdogan as a malignant force that needs to
be contained, even though his country remains a member of NATO.